The future of the season....

[Jason Persoff]

Ouch, Dan...Bummer I couldn't catch up with you this year. At least the gang didn't need to tow me out of a ditch like last year in SE CO (LOL).

I'm here 'til the 3rd of June, and I remain ridiculously hopeful that the Day 4-8 will pan out with the possibility of SVR each day early/late week next week.

I admit: I'm getting tired of seeing sfc winds parallel to convergence areas and exceptionally tired of seeing 700mb temps well in excess of 15 deg C. Never thought a trough in the west could be painful in May. Sheesh.

 

[Matthew Havin]

2005 and 2006 have been enough motivation for me to doing what any good stockbroker would do........diversify my "chaser portfolio". This may be the year that I begin to squat/chase hurricanes.......seems like a sure bet after dealing with these past two seasons across the Plains.

And for the record..... someone please correct me if I am wrong (and I likely am in some way), but having two Mays in a row like 2005 and 2006 (with 123 and 138 tornado reports to date respectively) is likely an occurence that happens maybe once or twice within a century. I have poured over the reports database all the way back to 1950, and haven't found two consecutive Mays as bad as this!

One of my work buddies took 3 weeks off for stormchasing in May.......and sat at his house almost the whole time. Time to find other hobbies!

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Yes - things are looking pretty bad right now. The upper level pattern is beginning to look like it did earlier in the month, with a strong eastern trough setting in for the long term. The only positive is that moisture will be plentiful, although there will not be much happening to make good use of it tornadowise.

Our primary trip was going to end on Tuesday, but with the car problems and the waning tornado season, it's officially over today. If the repairs are not too expensive, we will consider a short secondary trip in late June if a good pattern emerges. That's a long shot, so realistically we're just going to look forward to 2007.

So, I'm signing off of the long-range forecast thread until next year. Future of the 2006 season = Game Over.
[/b]

The further into to summer it gets the better NW flow is for chasing. The main reason early may sucked so bad wasn't the NW flow it was the lack of surface moisture. During early may there is one and only one moisture source (The Gulf of Mexico). The further into to June we get the bigger the role of evapo-transpiration. I have seen several great NW flow outbreaks but not with Dewpoints less than 70.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Chase Season 2006: How The Mighty Have Fallen OR: Has it Really Been That Bad?

Wasn't it just a month-month + 1/2 ago that people were talking about possibly being on a record-setting pace for tornadoes? Now it's "one of the worst seasons in history".

Possibly the most dubious chaser quote ever: "I'll save my money for May".

I recall hearing this, or some variation to this effect, several times in conversations with chasers explaining why they were sitting out one of the setups in mid-March through mid-April.

It's one thing to live 1,000 miles from the Plains and have 1 week of vacation time to set aside for the whole year, but any chasers that had the means to chase in March and April and did not have absolutely no excuse to be complaining about the way things are going now.

Chase when there are storms.

So, before complaining about mid-late May 2006's unquestionable dearth of tornadoes, think: Where were you for these babies?

I wanted to post Amos' image of the wedge near Westminister, TX here but I got a "you have posted more images than allowed" error!


What was your excuse if you didn't go? If you couldn't get off work or your car was broken down, that's one thing. Lousy luck, but at least you had a reasonable excuse. Anybody that could and did chase these days has had at least one sweet tornado in 2006.

Oh, did I mention I got my first chase ever in during this "down" period? No tornado, but we were on the only cell in the vicinity that had even a remote possibility of producing one and I had a blast.

Plus, nobody had seen much of anything in 2005 up till this point, and some then proceeded to have their best seasons ever from June 4-12. Those pictures above have a lot more tornadoes than I remember by the end of May 2005. If I recall right, just 4 days (March 21, April 10, April 21, and May 12) produced major tornado "catches" prior to June in 2005.

</rant>

 

[John Hudson]

What makes this year particularly disappointing is the rash of tubes seen over the east central states in April, which gave many of us the wrong impression of what was to come, I'm sure. I never thought I'd say that any year was worse than last, but...........

I don't believe I'll be spending money to travel to the southern plains anytime soon, but instead wait until later in the season when the severe weather potential tends to migrate northward (producing slower-moving storms), where I can simply reach many areas within a day's drive. The airfare is what really makes this "hobby" expensive. :blink:

John
VE4 JTH

Edit: Yep, I missed the April setups too. It's just too expensive for me to say "take me to OKC" on two or three days notice. I wholeheartedly agree with what Andy has said about the early part of this season. For those of you who had those setups almost on your back porch, but couldn't be bothered to go out and get them.........don't you dare let me here your whinin', because it's a long way to OKC from Winnipeg, and even longer from places like Australia and the U.K.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

If we get through the next three days without a Tornado in NE, it will be the first tornado less May since 1984. I think the chances are pretty good we’ll match that record. Jinx, jinx, jinx, lol I hope that works! Anyway, June can be as good as May in NE, hopefully better. With good moisture in place, nw flow can bring the huge towering supercells south out of SD into central NE were you wont see more than one or two other's on a storm, and July usually holds a surprise or two also. So good riddance May, lets move on!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

If we get through the next three days without a Tornado in NE, it will be the first tornado less May since 1984.
[/b]

Last year (2005) was the first year in which there was not a single tornado in Oklahoma in May. So far this May, Oklahoma has seen 2 tornadoes. Since 1950, OK has averaged about 20 tornadoes each May. Currently, we're sitting at 16 tornadoes this year in the state of OK, which is less than the annual record low of 17. Of course, there's still time to get a few more tornadoes, but it's looking quite a bit like 2005 and 2002, years in which we saw 27 and 18 tornadoes (respectively).

 

[nickgrillo]

Well, hell... At least I got to see some vorticies in different motel toilets this May. Although, the flushes tended to be high based given the large t/td depressions in the bowl.

 

[Matthew Havin]

This may not be very scientific, but lately I have had multiple dreams about a tornado outbreak in late June in South Dakota for 2006.......reminiscent of the June 24 2003 SD record outbreak. In the dream, the tornadoes are very beautiful stovepipes..... and they magically avoid destruction of life and property at all times. Another plus is these bad boys move so slowly in my dream that I can literally keep up with them on foot!

So..........WRITE IT ON THE CALENDAR!!!! I'LL SEE YOU IN SOUTH DAKOTA!!!

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

If we get through the next three days without a Tornado in NE, it will be the first tornado less May since 1984. I think the chances are pretty good we’ll match that record. Jinx, jinx, jinx, lol I hope that works!
[/b]

Well if the SPC report page stays as it is currently NE will not match the record; due to a public reported tornado in Sheridan County!!

 

[Jason Persoff]

Ouch, Andy, that was a pretty wholesale judgement of chasers. There are nearly 5000 people registered to ST, and most do not live anywhere near the Plains. For those of us with limited time and post-9/11 airfare issues, the best time to chase remains a statistical probability (and over the past century, end of May, and 1st week of June reign supreme).

What you're hearing a lot of us bemoan is that we have to adjust our family lives, our work, our travel plans usually no later than January of a given year and then end up out here during statistical anomolies. It's hard for us, and the forum gives many of us a chance to mourn and process why we missed things as wonderful as April.

I'm happy for you guys who scored in April...and the names attached to these wonderful photos are chasers who live and breathe chasing every day of their lives making them some of the best of the best around us.

But for many of us, real life is a gamble every May, and naturally we're a bit disappointed.

That said...I'm looking forward to tomorrow and Weds.

 

[Jason Persoff]

OMFG ...I've got it! The name for May, 2006:

The year of the SPF-5 chase....


See: S-P-F5....

HUH? Good pun, yes?

SPF being for suntan lotion...Of course..SPF 5 wouldn't do you any benefit for sun protection...but...good yes? Somebody? Bueller?

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Well if the SPC report page stays as it is currently NE will not match the record; due to a public reported tornado in Sheridan County!!
[/b]

That stinks, leave it up to the public to mess things up! People should not think or act for themselves, they should leave the important maters up to government authorities. Well at least the “jinxâ€￾ worked, I just wanted it to wait until today.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Just because the public reported a tornado, it does not mean that it will go on record as one. This happened last year in Oklahoma, but the NWS survey declared it a wind event, not a tornado.

 

[mikegeukes]

Kurt Silvey @ May 28 2006, 09:17 PM) *

If we get through the next three days without a Tornado in NE, it will be the first tornado less May since 1984. I think the chances are pretty good we’ll match that record. Jinx, jinx, jinx, lol I hope that works! [/b]

1950-2005 Data shows Nebraska had zero tornadoes in May for the years of 1979 and 1981.

This report never made it in the LSR at all:

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
718 PM MDT SUN MAY 28 2006

AT 713 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR HEMINGFORD...OR
ABOUT 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALLIANCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. [/b]

This report made the LSR:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
853 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

0910 PM TORNADO 12 SW GORDON 42.68N 102.37W
05/28/2006 SHERIDAN NE PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED POSSIBLE TORNADO RELAYED THROUGH KSDZ
[/b]

Mike