The future of the season....

Wowzers! After looking at the Canadian ensemble AND the GFS... I think Samuel is right about the potential regarding Memorial Day Weekend. I like that 996 mb low the Canadian develops over southeastern CO on the 27th and keeps in the central plains through the 29th. That would be a VEERRRY good setup for the northeastern part of CO/northwest KS/southwest and Panhandle of NE on the 27th. :D Unfortunate thing is that it's Graduation Day for the Fort Morgan High School Class of 2006... I hope that if there is going to be a severe weather outbreak it will hold off until later in the afternoon as I would hate for bad storms to ruin all my friends graduation parties. :( So if it works out I could go to all their parties in the early afternoon and then take off chasing after 3 p.m. or so. Sounds like a good day to me!
Always seems like every couple of years there are bad storms on graduation day... ce la vie (for those who don't know, it means "that is life" in French). :rolleyes:
 
If the latest GFS continues to forecast this, the 2006 Memorial Day weakend could go down in the history books.
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So far doesn't look like anything overly impressive and remember the GFS lies past a few days anyway. GFS shows most of the mid level flow to the north of the sfc features of interest.
 
If the latest GFS continues to forecast this, the 2006 Memorial Day weekend could go down in the history books.
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I don't think there will be anything historical, based on the last several runs, but at least the models are trending towards a solution that looks a little more May like. The lack of QPF (with a grain of salt that far out) combined with the current pattern lead me to believe that there may be a serious cap/CIN problem. Also main jet energy appears to remain confined primarily to the northern high plains. However IMO there will probably be a few storms break through along the dryline as is usually the case in this pattern during July.

Still this pattern despite the warm mid level temps has a lot more potential than the Hudson bay Polar Vortex pattern. I was getting a little tired of the dry northwest flow that we have all experienced for the past 4 weeks. :(
 
I'm sorry to say folks, but I'm actually glad it's been dead lately. I sold my house and am in the process of packing / moving out. Will be a 2 week delay right during chase season peak until I close on the next house. So I've been really busy with it. It would kill me to be packing and stuck at home and hear of all the torns you guys would be catching. Still, I know I can't always catch them all. Sometimes that's just the way it goes. Maybe I can catch some June action. We will see. I hope some of June remains down south in Tx like the action we got between June 9th and 12th last year. That was a blast. Probably that is too much to hope for, but you all know crazier things have happened.

It's almost hurricane season again. Wonder what this year will bring? I hear there is a decent chance for the east coast (possibly even NY area) getting hammered.
 
As I earlier commented, Monday was looking pretty good and is now looking even better for eastern CO.
If the dewpoints rise high enough to lower the LCL's tomorrow afternoon, the strong southeasterly flow is enough to compensate for the factor of the weaker southwesterly flow and give a decent possibility of some tornadoes. As always, watch the DCVZ for the best cells, as they tend to get rooted in that boundary and sometimes become prolific tornado producers ( take the May 10, 2004 Cedar Point cyclic supercell for example) So I'm going to see if I can shift those tests I was supposed to take tomorrow after school to Wednesday afternoon so I can chase tomorrow. Really hoping my parents clear it, because I have a good feeling about tomorrow and I don't want to miss out like I did two years ago, where I was 40 miles north of the storm, I could see it, I knew it was tornadic, but my mom didn't want to drive down there (this was when I was 14, before my license) so I missed out on it and was really pissed off about it. I'm not about to let THAT happen again. If I can go, my prelimary target is going to be Last Chance at 3 p.m., and I'll hang out at the Dairy King for however long it takes the convection to initiate and then follow the best looking storms from there.
 
Finally getting a pretty decent pattern for severe weather in the Northern high Plains. Aside from Tuesday it looks like Friday-Saturday-Sunday will have decent moisture in place across ND/SD/MN and even though there are building mid-level heights associated with the ridge, there is a surface mechanism on both Friday and Saturday and at least one ridge rider showing up on the GFS. Definately looking forward to some chasing.
 
Im pretty excited about tomorrow for central - eastern NE. Just checked the Rotate 2006 website and they are leaving Salina today and heading for York or Lincoln NE. I'll be out, got the day off, hope to see you all out there!!!!
 
After digging through the maps, I think that the upcoming weather pattern looks similar to the one that produced daily severe weather topped off with the June 24, 2003 tornado outbreak in South Dakota. Anyone care to comment on this?

Evening of June 24th 2003
 
Well, wouldn't you know it...I'm landing in Omaha Tuesday evening at midnight. I've been busy getting all the loose ends handled prior to leaving, and have had no time to peek at much else but this forum for the past couple of days.
May I please ask of you guys your opinions as to how Wednesday is shaping up? I quickly read today's SPC Day-3 and wasn't that impressed. But...if Tuesday goes as hoped, perhaps outflow boundaries could help goose things a bit for Wed.?
Thanks very much. Joel Ewing
 
Well, wouldn't you know it...I'm landing in Omaha Tuesday evening at midnight. I've been busy getting all the loose ends handled prior to leaving, and have had no time to peek at much else but this forum for the past couple of days.
May I please ask of you guys your opinions as to how Wednesday is shaping up? I quickly read today's SPC Day-3 and wasn't that impressed. But...if Tuesday goes as hoped, perhaps outflow boundaries could help goose things a bit for Wed.?
Thanks very much. Joel Ewing
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Well to start with it looks as if your landing at midnight Tuesday/Wednesday may be more than a little bumpy. BOW ECHO?
 
I am just mearly browsing through the NAM here... Tomorrow doesn't look too bad for southeast/eastcentral KS -- e.g. > 3000j/kg sbCAPE admist favorable vertical shear -- albeit a mostly unidirectional flow (which will probabley tend toward a more linear mode). Otherwise, the NAM shows a nice day on Friday for northwest KS and central KS... The latest NAM shows 2500-3500 j/kg of CAPE developing ahead of the surface low -- with precip breaking out (suggesting that low-level convergence will be capable of forcing ascent) in the moist sector -- although 700mb temps are rough (i.e. 12-13C)...

I'm in Hastings right now and ready to chase today, tomorrow and any op really... :D
 
Im sitting at home in Beatrice NE trying to figure if to go to NE/KS border by hebron area or to York area.......A watch box hasnt been even issued yet!!!
 
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