The future of the season....

[Jason Persoff]

Haven't had much time to look at any models since getting out here, but cringed when I read this on the 4-8 day SPC forecast:

MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE ND BORDER.
BEYOND THIS TIME...HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN STATES WHICH COULD SERVE TO LIMIT A
POTENTIAL ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.[/b]

Ouch. North of the ND border? Hadn't really considered chasing in Winnipeg...in MAY...

 

[Chad Ringley]

Myself and my colleagues here at NC State passed on this first trof in the N Plains and are still awaiting the possibility of coming out when we get a definitive 3-5 day stretch where we can chase. Good news about being a grad student is that for the most part, we can wait until 48-72 hr in advance to make the decision. Bad news is...the atmosphere is failing to hold up its end of the bargain.

We'll wait and see how the WRF/NAM handle this weekend's lee troughing episodes...but it doesn't look promising ATTM.

 

[John Hudson]

Hadn't really considered chasing in Winnipeg...in MAY...
[/b]

Gee, Winnipeg's not so bad. You could always end up in Saskatoon.........

John Hudson
VE4 JTH

 

[Matt Grantham]

Guess I'll be sitting here in Alabama for a lot longer. Finally get a trough to come into the West but the ridge is gonna stop it in its tracks. Anyone have any encouraging words about June?

 

[Shane Adams]

Guess I'll be sitting here in Alabama for a lot longer. Finally get a trough to come into the West but the ridge is gonna stop it in its tracks. Anyone have any encouraging words about June?
[/b]

There's always next year

 

[Chris Wilburn]

There's always next year
[/b]

Yep always next year. It may still be too soon to call it a year, but nothing is looking good on the horizon and I just have a bad feeling about the rest of the season. Maybe we will get lucky who knows, but I am sure not counting on it. I sure hope I am wrong though.

 

[Chad Ringley]

We've all but called off our venture to the midwest here in Raleigh. We probably will have better luck chasing here the rest of the season, as sad as that sounds.

 

[bill mudd]

Just in:
the CPC has just issued a 2 round outbreak in the northern plains covering co,nb,sd,nd on the 28th through the 30th
hey lets not blow off 06 quite yet ehh?

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Just in:
the CPC has just issued a 2 round outbreak in the northern plains covering co,nb,sd,nd on the 28th through the 30th
hey lets not blow off 06 quite yet ehh?
[/b]

Yes it seems that we'll have a good period for Northern plains, starting tomorrow from North Dakota. I see 3000 J/kg up to 4000 and more J/Kg of Cape in North Dakota tomorrow associated with a moderate mid level flow and a strong low pressure system at the ground that could lead to a strong low level shear. Plains are coming back a little bit.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Moisture and surface winds are very good across the Plains from now through the foreseeable future. The problem is that the cap is going to keep all of that instability from being realized on most days. And even when storms develop, there is not much upper level support except for the far northern Plains for the next couple of days. Funny as it sounds, we've been trying to figure out if it is going to be possible for us to cross the Canadian border. Some of the stricter crossings require notarized birth certificates, others just a driver's license. Not sure if we will be able to do it, but Canada looks like a real possibility for good chase setups in the near future. After Wednesday, it does look like things will quiet down for a long time. We will probably be heading home on Thursday.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Moisture and surface winds are very good across the Plains from now through the foreseeable future. The problem is that the cap is going to keep all of that instability from being realized on most days. And even when storms develop, there is not much upper level support except for the far northern Plains for the next couple of days. Funny as it sounds, we've been trying to figure out if it is going to be possible for us to cross the Canadian border. Some of the stricter crossings require notarized birth certificates, others just a driver's license. Not sure if we will be able to do it, but Canada looks like a real possibility for good chase setups in the near future. After Wednesday, it does look like things will quiet down for a long time. We will probably be heading home on Thursday.
[/b]

Ehi Dan how can I do without you :lol:
Yes, you're right, I'm seeing too a lack of mid upper level flow in the next days. However it never knows, as often at the end, models gives you that 35-40 knots of deep layer shear that saves you. I hope in that.

 

[Jim Bishop]

I'm not sold on anything big happening in the near future simply because the 300mb winds will be weak across the Plains, mainly because of the strong ridge over the East. Late next week and beyond the ridge is going to set itself back up over the Rockies & Plains. The Northern Plains are going to be the only possibilities for chase setups, but if we can't get decent 300mb winds over the top of the ridge we're looking at storms that become outflow dominant quickly. Models show troughing coming back to the Pacific Northwest later so maybe the second half of my trip could see some activity.

I'm taking my chase vacation from June 3 - 17. Right now things are not looking very good. I may end up doing a lot of camping in the high plains of Montana, Wyoming, ect! Upslope storms may be all I can hope for.

 

[Brian Press]

Well, my bothers and I were planning on coming out the weet of June 5th. It's looking pretty bad to me unless I am missing something. It also looks like we are goiong to have an Omega block around the 10/11. Is that an Omega block I seeon the GFS? Oh, well. We will just have to change our tickets and maybe come out the following week if things change. We all know anthing is possible between now and then, just a bummer looking forecast righ now.

B.p.

 

[Joe Zemek]

Why do I do this to myself? The GFS is a certain kind of torture. It's not useful for ANYTHING except stress. It will change. It MUST.

Thus I will forgo the GFS this week, looking no further than SPC Day 3. This way I will still be hopeful for my locked-in chase trip starting June 4 until at least June 3.

I disbelieve in you, GFS. You have no power over me. Begone like the western ridge you forecast!

 

[Dan Robinson]

Yes - things are looking pretty bad right now. The upper level pattern is beginning to look like it did earlier in the month, with a strong eastern trough setting in for the long term. The only positive is that moisture will be plentiful, although there will not be much happening to make good use of it tornadowise.

Our primary trip was going to end on Tuesday, but with the car problems and the waning tornado season, it's officially over today. If the repairs are not too expensive, we will consider a short secondary trip in late June if a good pattern emerges. That's a long shot, so realistically we're just going to look forward to 2007.

So, I'm signing off of the long-range forecast thread until next year. Future of the 2006 season = Game Over.