adlyons
EF2
Jeff, you stole my thought "if only this were May!"
State of the Chase Season 2023
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Jason N
EF4
Jeff, could you expound on the MJO as to why some phases will shift more rapidly, while other times, the phases will stagnate and remain for longer periods. what other processes effect the speed or transitions of phasing.
Mike Smith
EF5
FWIW, the chiclets (from 00Z last night, the latest available) are showing a pretty strong signal for the 25th and 26th. 12Z ECMWF has a strong signal. The new Canadian has a moderate signal for those days The GFS has the weakest signal (in terms of QPF) of the three, at least as far as the Great Plains, are concerns.
The Canadian has a strong, but low amplitude short wave. The ECMWF has a strong short wave in the southern stream.
Since this is a Sat-Mon period, it might be worth special attention.
The Canadian has a strong, but low amplitude short wave. The ECMWF has a strong short wave in the southern stream.
Since this is a Sat-Mon period, it might be worth special attention.
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Honestly...no...I cannot. I don't know the MJO well enough to comment on that. Sorry!
Jason N
EF4
haha no worries Jeff! you definitely know your stuff, so that's why I asked you first.
The source of my information is this article, which should be free to view: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50522
Jason N
EF4
Thanks for posting that, what a great way to see those relationships. The only thing I didn't notice was whether their conclusions/results of Apr/May Tornado days related to MJO phase happened under La Nina, Neutral, or El Nino conditions? or was it irrespective of it. I searched the document and couldn't find a reference to it, so I assume they didn't consider it? or perhaps those ENSO drivers weren't of significance to this particular study. Still really interesting.
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
It's looking like this active pattern will continue as we close out March and move into April. Starting to see signs that the plains might start to come alive, as early as next Thursday, and then another system around April 3-4. Fingers crossed.
john heyden
EF0
Hi,
I am John from the Netherlands. member of a chasingclub overhere. But I folow each year also the tornado chases iin Tornado Alley via internet.. A few of the mebers of mmine weatherclub have been chasing in the USA as well. for example withe Cloud9 tours. Next year a few of them fly to Tornado Alley as well, succes chasing!!
John
I am John from the Netherlands. member of a chasingclub overhere. But I folow each year also the tornado chases iin Tornado Alley via internet.. A few of the mebers of mmine weatherclub have been chasing in the USA as well. for example withe Cloud9 tours. Next year a few of them fly to Tornado Alley as well, succes chasing!!
John
john heyden
EF0
Mark Gressman Jr
Supporter
@john heyden - That would be this morning's Outlook. It was updated at 1630Z, and upgraded.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
John - The SPC outlooks are designed to be valid from 12Z (UTC/GMT) - 1159Z. In the US, that's 7AM Central Daylight Time to 6:59 CDT the next day.
The initial outlook for each day is scheduled at 06Z (1 AM CDT), or six hours before it becomes valid or the "active" forecast.
john heyden
EF0
Thanks for your replies guys!
The problem I am facing is that it is very early in the morning in The Netherlands at the time the heaviest storms break out normaly in Tornado Alley etc..
Have fun and succes!!
John.
John.
The problem I am facing is that it is very early in the morning in The Netherlands at the time the heaviest storms break out normaly in Tornado Alley etc..
Have fun and succes!!
John.
John.
adlyons
EF2
Quick update as of today.
Looks like my prediction of an above-average March is in a bit of danger. While we have had several severe events, the tornado efficiency has been lower than expected. With 4 days left to go, we are sitting at a prelim count of 60 confirmed tornadoes with the average from the last 25 years at 84 for the month. The events from the 24th and the 26th underperformed (coverage not intensity) from what was forecast. Looks like there is a chance we can get closer to the average in the last few days of the Month (30/31st).
Looks like my prediction of an above-average March is in a bit of danger. While we have had several severe events, the tornado efficiency has been lower than expected. With 4 days left to go, we are sitting at a prelim count of 60 confirmed tornadoes with the average from the last 25 years at 84 for the month. The events from the 24th and the 26th underperformed (coverage not intensity) from what was forecast. Looks like there is a chance we can get closer to the average in the last few days of the Month (30/31st).
Jason N
EF4
30th looks kinda thin, at the moment anyway, but that could change on successive model runs. 31st looks a little more promising at the moment over Iowa .
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