State of the Chase Season: 2016 Edition

[samuel stone]

The GOM is loaded and all indications are for western CONUS troughing to develop placing Tornado Alley in southwest flow aloft. While we cannot determine this far out which days will be players and which ones will be duds, it appears probable there will be tornado activity at least one day next week.

This my thinking too, if the this overall pattern (which multiple runs of the GFS, EURO, and ensemble guidance all portray to some degree) comes to fruition there will be tornadic activity somewhere in the plains in the near future.

One thing I would also add is that climatology is now greatly on our side. Were getting to that time of year where things comes together more often than they fall apart.

 

[Jeff House]

Confidence is increasing in the West/Rockies trough and short-waves ejecting over the Plains. For a few days now NWP has favored open shortwaves over teardrops, which is more favorable but still subject to change. Threat areas will shift around, of course, plus specific targets may depend on individual preference. At the moment most guidance hints at a dry line set-up on Tuesday. For those seeking more than one day, subtle options are on the table both before and after Tuesday. Perhaps the warm front produces Monday. Some models have midweek action in the Lower Missouri Valley and/or Mid Mississippi Valley. Others reload late week in the central Plains. Odds favor 1-2 quality chase days next week.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I can't help but be a bit excited after seeing the latest GFS run. Tuesday looks like a legit tornado day at this point. SPC has mentioned this in the Day 7. Kinda silly seeing a 4.26.91 analog for 4.26.16.

 

[Jared Orr]

If the GFS comes anywhere close to hitting the mark later next week, it's going to be a phenomenal week for storm chasing and a potentially tragic week for many. I hope as weather enthusiasts, we can keep a level head about what these sort of extreme-outbreak-weeks mean for peoples' lives and homes. I am excited about the meteorology but a little uneasy about the consequences.

 

[Michael Snyder]

Seems like the details may change but with the amount of deep moisture in place I don't see how next week escapes without a couple really nice chase days.
As far as safety I hope we are preaching for residents to find a shelter in the immediate area in which they live, and NOT trying to escape in their cars. If you live in tornado alley and you do not have a shelter you can get to in minutes, then you are taking a huge risk. It doesn't take a violent or even a strong tornado to ruin your day.
I'm still hoping that the day never comes when huge amounts of people are fleeing an area before a storm and there are some fatalities do to drownings/severe winds impacting the motorists.

 

[Devin Pitts]

A bit unrelated to the current discussion, but Norcal is looking at some possible cold core supercells tomorrow in the northern Sacramento Valley. Glad I put in the time off request for Friday early when I saw the models start agreeing with the timing on that low parking over the valley, I definitely don't want to miss one of the few severe weather events of the year for California.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Stormtrack mobile app

 

[Michael Snyder]

A bit unrelated to the current discussion, but Norcal is looking at some possible cold core supercells tomorrow in the northern Sacramento Valley. Glad I put in the time off request for Friday early when I saw the models start agreeing with the timing on that low parking over the valley, I definitely don't want to miss one of the few severe weather events of the year for California.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Stormtrack mobile app

Yup, every year Cali gets a few of those cells that roll through.

 

[James Gustina]

Well, things certainly haven't panned out as expected so far. We're currently sitting at our lowest tornado total for April (49) since before 2000. Looks like we're seeing consistent issues with fractured jets/trough timing creating unfavorable kinematic environments for tornadic supercells with each setup. Yesterday in particular highlighted this issue with dominant storms not being able to break away from their initial left split and getting continually seeded. Really hoping this weekend livens things up a bit because so far this has been a pretty forgettable April.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Aside from April 15, there's been a lot of wasted potential this month, culminating with yesterday. It can't be too many times per decade, on average, that you get 68-70 F dewpoints up to I-40 the night before a major trough ejection in April. That stings, badly.

Unfortunately, the ECMWF and its ensembles have consistently depicted an omega block developing over central North America next week. The eastern trough in that pattern could wipe the Gulf of moisture for a period (e.g., at D+10, the 27/12z ECMWF has much of the Gulf with 50s dew points down to the latitude of Cuba). We're getting to the time of year where recovery shouldn't take too long once a more favorable pattern emerges, at least. Plus, predictability in the medium range has not been good lately. But as things stand today, it appears we may be headed into mid-May hoping for an active late season to offset our early misfortunes - sadly, a common theme, in recent years.

 

[chrisbray]

GFS has been relatively consistent bringing a trough through the west on mother's day weekend sometime, so we can at least see if that trend continues.

 

[JeremyS]

One of the ugliest runs you can get on the operational run of the 12Z GFS today. Omega block set up basically through the middle of May

 

[Andy Wehrle]

If the GFS comes anywhere close to hitting the mark later next week, it's going to be a phenomenal week for storm chasing and a potentially tragic week for many. I hope as weather enthusiasts, we can keep a level head about what these sort of extreme-outbreak-weeks mean for peoples' lives and homes. I am excited about the meteorology but a little uneasy about the consequences.

I'll never believe the GFS >4 days out again, even if it has been consistent. As Jeremy alluded to above, given the pattern it's now portraying, that's all right with me.

 

[Warren Faidley]

No reason to believe this year will be different from recent years with a similar overall pattern, including the current drought climatology and dryline placement. Not even super El Niño could break the drought pattern. (It will likely take a major volcanic eruption...lol). Early on, a few big days near 1-35 (which almost happened) then the season stalls the first week of May (pattern shift). It (upper level flow and OK rh) will eventually shift to E. Colorado / W. NE and NE KS in late May and early June. There are of course a few potential days in between (mid-May) but it's going to be a late year. The guys I chase with have come to the conclusion that the center of the chase universe (until major climate shifts) is going to be the Lamar / Goodland / Limon triangle. Maybe.

 

[Taylor Wright]

Yawn. Unless you scored on 4-16, this year has been pretty worthless. Even Tuesday, which looked like one of the better plains days of the past few years, couldn't produce a nice tor. The issue seems to often be the upper lows closing off and digging south, leaving the warm sector with backed upper level winds resulting in messy hodos and VBV. It again looks to be a problem next weekend, which could be the next chase event. Outside of that, I won't speculate because the GFS is complete garbage as far as I'm concerned farther than 150 hrs out and it has really proved that this year. I won't mind if the next couple weeks are inactive, as my "chase vacation" is May 11-22nd.

 

[James Gustina]

Looks like we're gonna be staring down an omega block with a cutoff low either way you slice it heading into the heart of May. Even with the HP supercell and tornado on the 29th, this year has been a steaming pile even compared to 2012 or 2014. We're rolling into the heart of chase season on the heels one of the worst Aprils of Great Plains chasing since I've been chasing. Other than April 15 on the High Plains, there hasn't been a day that's made me legitimately feel like I missed something interesting. I don't know what it'll take to get us out of this rut, but I certainly hope we're not sitting in this kind of crap through the primetime for the S. Plains.