State of the Chase Season: 2016 Edition

[Jeff Duda]

Meant to say 2012 and 2006, not that 2012 was much better lol.

2012 was a great season up until about late April, when it shut off.

 

[James Gustina]

Those few decent days sprinkled in during the last week of May weren't bad for 2012 either. 2006 was before my time by two years but I remember the consensus disdain for 05 and 06.

Sent from my XT1080 using Stormtrack mobile app

 

[Quincy Vagell]

2012 was a great season up until about late April, when it shut off.

A very active front-end, a great example that a fast start to the season doesn't mean that the rest of the year will follow suit.

 

[chrisbray]

Probably a topic for another thread (if it doesn't already exist) but I wonder if people ranked the past 15 seasons, which would be the top?

 

[Brett Roberts]

Hopefully not too off-topic, but 2006, 2009, and 2012 are examples of why I've come to fear warm winters that start off active in March and April. They all devolved into stagnant patterns lacking baroclinity and associated active jets by peak season. It's extremely rare for the early season to offer enough high-quality chase setups that it's worth sacrificing the late season, even if March and April are very active. For example, I would argue 2012 was full of endless mediocre setups during the active early period, other than April 14 (there were other tornado days, including a few decent ones, but nothing great). And 2006 was even worse; moisture and storm activity were above average early, but practically no exciting days materialized from it. Early sunsets, just-in-time moisture, and a near-zero probability of good multi-day setups are all hallmarks of the early season that reduce the enjoyment of chasing.

The only year I recall where the early season was so great that it made up for a lackluster late season was 2007. Based on my chase season ranking metrics, that was the best Feb-Mar-Apr since at least 1955, though - so not something one can expect very often. Lots of May-like setups in March and April that year.

It doesn't look like we're hurting for baroclinity at all, right now; the cold air just isn't located over the part of the continent we'd like it to be. Hopefully, this means at least a couple active periods are on tap for May and June that will quickly erase our memory of yet another useless March (which is all we've had since 2012).

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I think I might be the only person that doesn't have a hate for 2006. That was a fairly big year for Illinois and there were several setups within driving distance of home that year. Although most of them occurred from Early March through Late April and then it seemed like things shut off more or less. I hadn't started chasing in the plains yet though then, so I can't really express feelings for that aspect of things

 

[chrisbray]

Well March may be lackluster for the plains so far, but here in the Midwest we had one nice event so far, and GFS is still making things look interesting for the area once again next Wednesday and Thursday.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Three things I've learned aver the years:

1.) While these threads are fun to read and speculate in, there is no way to tell how a season will go until it's over. I believe it was 2007 we were lamenting the abysmal SSTs in the Gulf, a week before Protection or one of those big events.

2.) Every season has its gems if you chase on the right days. Good and bad seasons are usually personal. 2015 was a great Plains year, but really bad for me. Even 2006 had a couple of nice Plains events in April.

3.) If you live in the South or the Midwest, you'll get a couple of season-redeeming events at home every year - regardless of what happens in the Plains.

 

[samuel stone]

Well since I missed Beatrice Nebraska 4-15-06 2006 sucked...

 

[Tim Paitz]

I think I might be the only person that doesn't have a hate for 2006. That was a fairly big year for Illinois and there were several setups within driving distance of home that year. Although most of them occurred from Early March through Late April and then it seemed like things shut off more or less. I hadn't started chasing in the plains yet though then, so I can't really express feelings for that aspect of things

I remember 2006 quite well. Had a small tornado come within a half mile of my house (albeit one on a squall line) on april 2nd of that year. I used to write in a journal as a kid so there were quite a few days where i wrote about "yet another storm", including those 2 july derechoes within a couple of days of each other.

 

[chrisbray]

Well now that everyone has the first but out of the way...looks like we can put the first two weeks of April!

 

[Jeff House]

First two weeks of April feature mainly forecast northwest flow, not considered bullish for severe outbreaks. However local low to mid end setups can happen. If one believes the weekly forecasts from the Euro and CFS the second half of April warms up east of the Rockies. Southern stream troughs would undercut. If no EML it would be messy of course. Option two would be early northern Plains Upper Midwest. One would look for a southwest system to eject north toward the forecast Great Lakes ridging, with severe in the resulting southwest flow over the central/northern Plains or Mid Mississippi Valley. Regardless the second half of April usually wakes up with climo.

Looking ahead to May some research points to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest again coming out of Nino but it depends somewhat on how fast Nino decays. Continued Nino influence in the atmosphere might favor activity in the above areas. A faster transition toward Nina, even if still not there, complicates matters with the signal. Long way off. Season is young.

 

[Brett Roberts]

On the one hand, it's not incredibly important whether March or early April are active -- given that high-end, high-quality Plains chase days are so rare this early in the year.

On the other hand, D0-D1 drought is once again beginning to overspread the southern Plains, centered on the Panhandles and SW KS. And this is purely short-term drought, which is the type that concerns me most heading into the heart of chase season. The cold, dry NW flow that looks to dominate for at least the next 7-10 days is not helpful in this regard, to say nothing of decimating Gulf moisture.

Given a wet system or two, there's still plenty of time to recover, particularly because the drought is only short-term. But I think we're going to find ourselves in a position where we need above-average rainfall during the second half of April in order to have optimal ET for May and June over this region. There are plenty of chase seasons that suffered mild to moderate drought over parts of the southern Plains and still performed well -- 2003 and 2004, among others. I think our chances for multiple big days across the arid southern High Plains may hinge on at least a moderately wet April, though, because they have been dry so far this year.

 

[Jeff Duda]

This is why I get a little nervous when we get into a highly amplified and progressive flow pattern in late winter/early spring. Such a pattern in May and June would bring setup after setup favorable for chasing, but February and March are too early, and typically that type of pattern doesn't persist, and is then followed by reduced cyclogenesis frequency/general troughiness in the areas where it matters. I'm seeing lots of indications of strong west coast ridging and blocking setting up over the next 7 days along with some northern stream systems that will continue to keep the CEUS dry and continually shunt Gulf moisture away. I was obviously way wrong on my prediction for March (made before I was informed of a SSW event that seemed to promote the eastern US troughs over the last several weeks), and now I'm starting to wonder if April 2016 will progress like April 2013 did, with continued bouts of unseasonable cold and generally disappointing chasing. Yeah, there were a few events in April 2013, including a moderate risk bust across Oklahoma, but it was a pretty lousy month in my personal experience. Really hoping things start to turn around by mid-April, but I don't have much hope right now.

 

[Quincy Vagell]

The Euro weeklies have been very consistent with flipping to ridging across the eastern two-thirds of the country around mid-month, however latest runs show more of a split flow with ridging into western Canada. Not an ideal setup, but could suggest some SW trough ejections. The last couple of runs of the CFS have really backed off on severe potential for mid to late April, though their skill so far out has been inconsistent.

As Brett mentioned 2004, that 4/11/04 shows up as one of the top 8-14 day analogs via GEFS.

I was once fairly optimistic about the second half of April, and I still am, but there are plenty of uncertainties. We'll have to see what happens in the 2nd and 3rd weeks of April. There are also hints of a heavy precipitation producer in the south-central states later next week or weekend. That would be encouraging across the Plains, if it materializes, with respect to the recent dry spell.