Shades of 2013?

[calvinkaskey]

I don't really think it has affected the severe weather in the northeast, ie. New York. Lake Ontario never freezes over though. There were 2 tornadoes in Ohio in Feb last year. No less tornadoes that normal in spring than the past decade or so really and the 20 is almost spot on for the average past two decades. Right up close to the lakes and snowpack might be different though.

 

[calvinkaskey]

SEE ABOVE
I thought this was included and hit quote
"What do you think about this being a negative feedback loop kind of deal? For example, the cold winter cools bodies of water and lays snowpack which then alters spring and summer weather patterns.

For example, the extreme great lakes ice coverage the last few years has significantly cooled the spring and summer weather in the states surrounding.

Just a thought - probably doesn't affect the central plains all that much but who knows? That abnormal cold in the midwest could effect things nationwide." -Adam Adkins

 

[calvinkaskey]

Here's a paper worth reading regarding tornado activity and fluctuations in equatorial Pacific SSTAs. Note that the Trans-Nino Index outlined here doesn't really tell how active overall a season will be, but instead suggests that more violent events on a shorter timescale may be possible in a positive phase. We are currently in a negative phase with cooler waters in Nino 1+2 and warmer anomalies in Nino 4 and have been since July 2012.

http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAPP/2013/Presentations/1-15/Lee.pdf

[/URL]

I DID READ WHAT YOU TYPED ANDY. I'm not talking about coming out of or going into El Nino but actually during El Nino. Looks like we are in an El Nino and therefore probably a dud of a March. According to the NOAA report I read it should go back to neutral soon after.[/QUOTE]

 

[JamesCaruso]

Completely agree with all of this; 2010 was the last legitimately good season for the type of serious chaser who is willing and able to chase a dozen or more Plains setups per year...

I don't remember 2010 being very good. Admittedly, I am only thinking about my 2-week chase vacation (roughly 5/22-6/4), but IIRC that was not a great period, with the notable exception of Campo (which itself was a freak event).

Conversely, I see 2013 as a good year because I happened to be out there during the two weeks that everything happened (although I had a run of bad luck during that time, but that's another story...)

Anyway, I understand the definition established in this thread for a "good" season, of course it's more than just the luck of the draw in a particular two-week period, but I am just trying to remember what else besides Campo distinguished 2010 as the last good season???

 

[Marcus Diaz]

but I am just trying to remember what else besides Campo distinguished 2010 as the last good season???

March 8, April 20-24, May 18-19, May 22-24, June 17...just to name a few off the top of my head. The southern and northern Plains lit up several times throughout the year.

 

[Todd Rector]

... had I not chased last June 16th and blown it in a manner almost as maddening as the guy who was gonna chase that day having targeted Norfolk but then turned around and went back to work (Don't remember who off the top of my head and can't find the post just now).

It was me. *sobbing*.
Next time I am going to pay a little more attention to CAPE and shear values, rather than simply look at the morning convection and assume it's going to be another HP mess like in previous weeks. I also have a new chase strategy: Once I commit to a chase, I will NOT check work email.

 

[Brett Roberts]

I don't remember 2010 being very good. Admittedly, I am only thinking about my 2-week chase vacation (roughly 5/22-6/4), but IIRC that was not a great period, with the notable exception of Campo (which itself was a freak event).

Conversely, I see 2013 as a good year because I happened to be out there during the two weeks that everything happened (although I had a run of bad luck during that time, but that's another story...)

Anyway, I understand the definition established in this thread for a "good" season, of course it's more than just the luck of the draw in a particular two-week period, but I am just trying to remember what else besides Campo distinguished 2010 as the last good season???

Once the season kicked into gear on May 10, it basically didn't stop until late June. The period from 5/18-6/17, in particular, was nearly nonstop tornado days in good terrain, many of them photogenic. A partial list, just from memory:

5/18 - Dumas/Stinnett
5/19 - Hennessey, Dover, Wynnewood
5/22 - Bowdle
5/23 - Texline
5/24 - Faith
5/25 - Tribune
5/31 - Campo
6/5 - Elmwood, IL
6/10 - Deer Trail/Last Chance
6/13 - Booker, Slapout
6/16 - Dupree
6/17 - Historic MN/IA outbreak (too many amazing sups/tors to list)

We've had some great chase days each year since then, but nothing even close to rivaling this stretch, in my opinion. The closest thing would be 5/15-5/31 in 2013, but that was tarnished by too many of those days being crappy metro OKC events.

It's all about your chasing priorities and philosophy, though. For some, the year truly is made by the best one or two days. In other words, catch Rozel or Pilger, and the rest of the year being crappy no longer matters. For me, it's a little more about the overall experience and enjoying the season as a whole (extended 2+ week down periods with no hope or excitement, particularly after May 1, are hard to take). That, and it would be nice to average more than 0.5 quality tornado days per year in the classic High Plains areas west of 99 W, as we pretty much have since 2011.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

2010 not only had lots of good Plains tornado days, both north and south, but they were mostly high contrast days with multiple day-time wedge days. You could take away half the main tornado days from 2010 and it would still be a great year. One of the easiest years to make the argument for a good year. If 2010 was not good, what would you consider good?

 

[Drew Terril]

Once I commit to a chase, I will NOT check work email.

That's the rule I followed when I was a lead both at Nissan and my current employer. When I'm not at work, the email doesn't get checked. It's a good rule to follow as long as your work does not require you to be available outside of your normal shift hours. With chase season coming, It's kinda worked out that my lead position was eliminated, putting me back on the floor. As long as I have personal time, I just need to give an hour's notice. If I know a day or more in advance, I can use vacation time.

 

[Jeremy.Degenhart]

I'm getting a strong May 20 - June 20 vibe from this year. Not real great at the El Nino/La Nina arguments, but with us moving firmly into an El Nino phase and with the current pattern the way it is, expecting an underwhelming April and early May, and hoping for a couple nice late May/June setups. I'm getting flashbacks to 2009, with a terrible May and then Goshen County and Aurora making the season palatable.