Shades of 2013?

[Matt Phelps]

So far, the second half of the 2014-2015 winter season has been known for nor'easters and crashing cold fronts.

February saw many cities set all time snow and cold records.

2013 saw cold fronts crash well into the GOM into early May, before 2 weeks of tornadoes to end the month.

With March 1st upon us and another cold front poised to sweep into the GOM, could we be looking at yet another slow start to the chase season?

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Same old song and dance of both 2013 and 2014. IMO, and this is just a very broad perspective. Obviously YMMV depending on individual catches for a given season, but the last truly "good" chase year was 2010. 2011's epic April was centered too far east for those who still can't or won't chase into Dixie Alley, and the only good Plains event in May from I-35 in KS/OK on west was on the 24th, which was a pretty major outbreak in its own right but still just one day.

Again, just IMO a good chase year has a 4-6 week period of generally sustained storm & tornado activity scattered throughout multiple areas of the Plains and Midwest take place somewhere from March through June. The best examples from the 21st century include 2004, 2007, 2008, and 2010.

The last three seasons have just not been conducive to chasing in general. 2012 was far too hot & dry for most of the spring and summer, and 2013-present have been dominated by Pacific ridging and the troughing over the CONUS digging too far east for a warm sector to develop over the Plains/Midwest. Of course there have been brief breakdowns, May 15-31 of 2013, April 27-28 and June 16-18 last year, but those have been the rare exception to the prevailing pattern.

 

[Matt Phelps]

Of course there have been brief breakdowns, May 15-31 of 2013, April 27-28 and June 16-18 last year, but those have been the rare exception to the prevailing pattern.

And that's exactly right. It's been slow, but with an occasional burst of activity to keep it interesting. 2010 was my first chase season, and being a novice, I didn't see much action except for May 18 in the Texas Panhandle and May 19 in Oklahoma.

Would be nice to have some continued drought relief to keep up hope for an active southern plains year.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

To reiterate, not to imply that Moore/El Reno/Vilonia/Louisville weren't tragic, or that Rozel/Bennington/Pilger weren't awesome. I'd probably be much less inclined to facepalm/slam my fist on my desk/scream in frustration every time I looked at the long range models the last two weeks and seen nothing but a parade of Arctic highs coming my way had I not chased last June 16th and blown it in a manner almost as maddening as the guy who was gonna chase that day having targeted Norfolk but then turned around and went back to work (Don't remember who off the top of my head and can't find the post just now).

 

[Brett Roberts]

Same old song and dance of both 2013 and 2014. IMO, and this is just a very broad perspective. Obviously YMMV depending on individual catches for a given season, but the last truly "good" chase year was 2010. 2011's epic April was centered too far east for those who still can't or won't chase into Dixie Alley, and the only good Plains event in May from I-35 in KS/OK on west was on the 24th, which was a pretty major outbreak in its own right but still just one day.

Again, just IMO a good chase year has a 4-6 week period of generally sustained storm & tornado activity scattered throughout multiple areas of the Plains and Midwest take place somewhere from March through June. The best examples from the 21st century include 2004, 2007, 2008, and 2010.

The last three seasons have just not been conducive to chasing in general. 2012 was far too hot & dry for most of the spring and summer, and 2013-present have been dominated by Pacific ridging and the troughing over the CONUS digging too far east for a warm sector to develop over the Plains/Midwest. Of course there have been brief breakdowns, May 15-31 of 2013, April 27-28 and June 16-18 last year, but those have been the rare exception to the prevailing pattern.

Completely agree with all of this; 2010 was the last legitimately good season for the type of serious chaser who is willing and able to chase a dozen or more Plains setups per year. The past two years have been particularly frustrating due to the unrelenting dominant eastern-trough pattern in March and April (even into parts of May), and it is truly depressing to see signs that it may continue for a third consecutive season.

I think it's fair to say that 2011-2014 was the least impressive four-year stretch for Plains chase days since the infamous mid-late 1980s era, even if there have been scattered gems during that period. I've said this before and I'll say it again: I think technology, incredible advances in NWP like the HRRR, and the number of chasers has "masked" how bad this period has been to some degree, because now we're seeing great pictures and video anytime anything happens anywhere on the Plains. Anyone who's started in the last few years may be pleasantly surprised when the next 1991 or 2004 finally rolls around.

 

[chrisbray]

It's a little early for comparisons lol, it's march first and you are comparing a sweeping cold front going into the GOM to an early May setup like that?

I hope we don't get repeats of the last few years, and yes the first two weeks of march aren't looking very good, but once those pass we may take another look and reassess what is going to happen. I won't get discouraged just yet.

 

[Dan Robinson]

A chase season can turn on a dime and go crazy no matter what has happened in the months prior. It may not happen until late May or June some years, but even if April is full of a Hudson Bay vortex and Gulf cold fronts, May could end up being another 2004. I've realized it's not over until late June.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Happy meteorological spring everyone! Now where are those storms?

 

[Matt Phelps]

Happy meteorological spring everyone! Now where are those storms?

haha classic

 

[Ben Holcomb]

2011 presented quite a few setups in tornado alley - Not sure why that wouldn't be considered a good year? Feb 27, April 8/9, April 14, April 24-27, May 21-25, June 20, November 7th. Definitely much better than the crap 2012, 2013 or 2014 presented.

 

[Matt Phelps]

Interesting to note that the latest measurable snow Austin, Texas has had was March 9th, of 1915. 1915 was an incredibly slow tornado year. With the GFS showing snowfall here on the 4th-5th (would be the second latest measurable snowfall in Austin), let's hope there isn't a 1915 repeat haha

 

[James Gustina]

It's definitely got a similar feel to previous years, but whether or not that has any bearing on anything is still to be seen with at least another few weeks of gradually changing flow regimes. The most noticeable difference between where we're at now and 2013 is we have a chance at a legitimate shifting of that ridge squatting right over the Bay of Alaska and the entirety of the Pacific coast. 2013 on the other hand just kept sweeping cold fronts and polar air into the southern Plains well into mid-April because the pattern was stagnant for months and months on end.

 

[Adam Lucio]

It certainly appears the season will be off to a slow start, and similar to the past 3 years. I expect the below normal trend to continue. I haven't checked the numbers in 10 days or so, but I believe we're already on a record slow pace, definitely so in the last 10 years. Up until now the only year that was slower was 2011 but 2011 had a couple big days at the end of February whereas this year did not. Now before one of you PHD people comes in and says "ITS ONLY MARCH 1st" yes yes yes I KNOW, you don't need to remind me. Its still fun to talk about and speculate.

I would already call the first half of March a loss with the second half probably following along. We've got quite a weeks worth of winter weather ahead, and that will only delay things further. The overall pattern hasn't shown much signs of breaking down yet but there does seem to be some moderation in the long range. Not sure if thats just model climatology bias or not. My gut tells me patience will be the key to success this year. The slowest years still toss out amazing tornadoes. 2013 was one of my best years, and this will be my 11th season. The best way to beat a slow start is to just use the time to be better prepared for the rest of the season. It gives us procrastinators a little more time to get things lined up.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

2012 had several of southern Plains setups too. 3/18, 4/9, 4/13-14, 5/30 just to name a few. Actually I count 2012 as my second best season behind 2010.

I wouldn't throw away a decent S Plains just yet. 2010 didn't really wake up until the 3rd week of April. Looking at climatology, the S Plains season is usually mid April - mid June. So if we get to late April and the models look like they do now...I would say a good S Plains season is looking slim. Doesn't mean the central/northern Plains won't light up. Of course it is fun to speculate, but honestly this talk of this being another 2013/2014 is just laughable. What's this year have that the last 2 didn't have? How about major drought removal in the south along with a weak El Nino pattern shaping up? Doesn't that excite anyone else? I expect the upper air pattern to take time to shift, so I'm not worried about it yet. If anything, I welcome the snow. Sure helps with the green-up.

 

[Michael Gavan]

Based on the year so far, and based on the overall pattern for march looking ahead, I'm hedging my bets on later in the season overall. If there's any serious setup in April by all means I'll be working on a way to get out there, but based on the last couple of years...Heck the last 5 years even, that late May and June will always pay off whether the start of the season is good or bad. There's been some epic awesomeness in March, April, early May in seasons past, it's unlikely that the late season will disappoint either way. I just want to be right this year and take the right amount of time off work just as that one or two spectacular weeks happen. This year, Memorial Day week and June will be the peak of it all again.