Quiet For a While

[matt patterson]

After a fairly active last week of Febuary it looks as though we may go into a hibernation phase in regards to severe weather. There is really nothing on the long range ensambles that stands out as a severe weather producing pattern. Im looking out to 362hrs and really dont see a whole lot of anything beyond northerly or zonal flow. I know that models are not always reliable even at 12hrs but after getting the feeling of spring in the air im a bit depressed. Curious to see what thoughts everyone else has.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

I think this is a good thing for the country right now its March 1 and were already nearing 30+ fatalities to tornadoes. That number is alot higher than it should be for the day and age we live in. People need to come out of thier bubble and pay attention to things like what happened today.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

It definitely looks like a quiet period is setting up, which I'm happy for because I still have a ton of stuff to do to get ready for the 'real' chase season (if there's such a thing anymore). It definitely looks like we might be quiet for TESSA and possibly beyond. I'm going to bet things start changing AoA March 20th or so for the better, but that's with absolutely zero evidence to support it

 

[David Drummond]

I'm with Chris on that. I have a new chase vehicle to get set up and could use some calm, nice, warm days to get things done.

 

[fplowman]

This is a wakeup call... lol
To always be ready..

Last year at the Storm Chase convention the power went out and many of us without a skip pulled out our little led lights and made our way about...

Im constantly reminded by Susan ( fiance ) of how strange she thought this was how we ( convention participants ) were all prepared for a lights out event.

 

[SteveCarter]

One of the first things I did was to check the long range forecast at the hotel Thursday night after chasing in tuscaloosa, AL. I agree. Nothing for a "LONG" time. I'm glad too. The past week has been something else! Two chases, over 2100 miles, three nights in hotels, and over 37 hours driving. I have a LOT of work to catch up on, and this is only March 3rd. I know this is VERY early, and not reliable at all, but there may be a chase coming up around the 20th-23rd of this month. Some arctic air may be breaking away from the polar regions later on, and....well...this is just to far away to really know. I need a break anyway!! lol

 

[matt patterson]

Well it looks like i may have spoke a little too soon and we may get "Some Kind" of storms fired up late this week here in the sooner state and maybe North texas. Here is what the TSA AFD said this morning:

GOOD MOISTURE RETURN GETS
UNDERWAY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS A SURFACE LOW
TRIES TO GET ORGANIZED TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR... THIS
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES

 

[Kevin Askew]

Yep, day 4-8 SPC hints of something going in plains....Only a matter of time until we, "East tornado alley" gets action. Noticed May was very quiet here but I guess after the April we had made up for it. Late this coming week bears watching close.
Kevin

 

[matt patterson]

I dont think i want to hear you Illinois folks whine. LOLOLOL. You guys have had a lot of tornadoes over the last 3-5 yrs. In fact either last year or in 2005 you set some kind of record for the most Tors in a season for the state?

 

[Kevin Askew]

LOL! Yep it was an active year Strongest tornado was near KPAH area Madisonville, not sure but close. F-4 at 210 pegged. Illinois as far as I know was tornado capital of country and set all time record. We set personal record with F-2/F-3 tornado & 2 other wall clouds visable at same time. Perry co. Mo/Il we tracked 28 miles at night..... That storm was first that really scared us. Prolly upon appraoching we had edge of rotating wall cloud above us in rockwood and banking on storm to stay at NE heading
Kevin

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

This weekend could be somewhat interesting, but a lot needs to happen before we can be sure. Moisture content is very questionable, but the 00z GFS has 55F dewpoints all the way into E OK/W AR. A cold front and lead shortwave will move into the Central Plains during the day Friday and would be the focus of thunderstorm development. Very low instability and weak lift concerns me at the moment, still bears watching to say the least.

I really don't see anything more than a marginal setup for this weekend. I do see severe weather likely, like earlier put between the March 20th-23 timeframe. This works out nicely because I have Spring Break during that time.

 

[Ray Walker]

Well from what Im seeing in tonights GFS model run is that this weekend could possibly be ok. It shows a fairly decent s/w moving through the c/s plains on friday and a cold front moving through Oklahoma. Dewpoints are forcast to be in the upper to mid 50s with surface based cape possibly reaching 1000j/kg across southern Oklahoma and north texas. However the wind feilds to me dont look that favorable for tornadoes with NW flow aloft in place.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Didnt last year start off with what looked to be a record setting tornado year? Then it fell off like a lead weight......I too am tired of Illinois...Indiana....Missouri...Arkansas getting these big storms and outbreaks.....Its time for the real tornado Alley to live up to its old days....Texas Panhandle, North Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas , and Nebraska need storms to end the drought....
I would actually not mind a it of a down period but with some good moisture return over that period.....lets get some actual moisture to work with when we get these big systems coming out and eliminate some of the guess work with regards to moisture an instabilty.....
Maybe early April will have some big storms in the southern plains with the "big ones" some of the older chasers are used to...

 

[Justin E. Reed]

I understand you want storms, but why would want them like we've had. Actually, f this, yall can have, take em and let em hit ur towns this time, bout ti8red of many of these getting personal. May 11,2003 April 2 and 7,2007, April 16,1998, May 3,1999 , and this past one in Enterprise. Seems like my family and friends just need to move to Toronto.

 

[Danny Neal]

I dont think i want to hear you Illinois folks whine. LOLOLOL. You guys have had a lot of tornadoes over the last 3-5 yrs. In fact either last year or in 2005 you set some kind of record for the most Tors in a season for the state?

136 last year and 19 in 05