Possible Hurricane Pattern Shift Coming

[Warren Faidley]

According to the GFS, there will be a shift in the Atlantic pattern in about 7-10 days, with the Bermuda High circulation moving into a more favorable orientation for US landfalls. Map below is from day 360. Far out, but something to watch as supported by mid to late September climatology.

W.

 

[David Douglas]

Day 360? They sure did extend the GFS out a bit

 

[Frank Kienast]

Well, day 360 might be about right for the next significant hurricane to impact the US

 

[MClarkson]

To be fair, the ultra long range GFS has been developing something in the carib/gulf for a few days now. So we have some run-run consistency on our side Take that with a grain of salt, obviously.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Well, day 360 might be about right for the next significant hurricane to impact the US

Opps..... hours....

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Imm take a look as Invest 95L ...

 

[David Goines]

Yeah the current Invest 95 looks interesting. Maybe finally a good storm that isn't taco hungry and actually heads to the U.S.? (and no I didn't forget about Hermine)
http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/images/2010/clark15latest.png

 

[Thomas Spence]

Invest 95L looks like it could finally be the one we've been waiting for all season. Right now satellite images shows a very disorganized area of disturbed weather across the Caribbean Sea with scattered convection. Hopefully it organizes into something in the next few days as it moves east.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Kind of impressive (or just luck) the GFS actually picked this us quite a few days ago, although the original initiation area and path (of course) are off. I do not believe 95 was even a disturbance at that time. Interesting, the 18z (9/22) GFS at 192 hours has a system diving down into the SE states as the cyclone approaches. Looks like a potential nail biter for the west coast of Florida and Keys sometime around October 1.

W.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Let's not forget Tropical Storm Lisa. Does anyone think she has a chance at making landfall in the US?

 

[Michael Nicolaou]

Let's not forget Tropical Storm Lisa. Does anyone think she has a chance at making landfall in the US?

Really????? I think the chances of this hitting the U.S. are between slim and none.* The models have her wandering in the far east Atlantic for the next few days. She's gonna need a swift kick in the pants to get anywhere. Bring this up again when she crosses 60W.

*And with that prediciton it will now go Cat 5 on the Eastern Seabord.....

 

[Jason Foster]

I'm going to be more optimistic than pessimistic about the chances for US land falling system before the season is out. I do really want one for no more reason than to have a traditional chase, and meet up with folks I missed by not going to Bermuda. Could use the money too of course.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

OK ... I am still waiting for this so-called "pattern-shift" ;-)

Looks like WINTER is coming in earlier than normal with high-shear over the GOM and W Caribbean.

The season is winding down, and YES - 95% of it was over open waters (sigh).

Maybe the "360-day" joke was indeed correct, putting September 2011 as the real "big" season for the US ;-(

 

[Jason Foster]

On to winter....LOL (sorry to those below 36°N). Yeah 2010 was a near bust overall. Luckily a few got some taste of action with Alex, Earl, Igor. Nothing to write home about of course, but still a low dose fix for TDS, which I'm sure will rage pretty hard in the off season.

2011 will be better for chasers I'm sure, even with in my mind the likelihood of a less active season (law of averages).

Collura, I'm gonna do some LES in NY/PA this year....if you are up to it. I know you enjoyed some of it during your time in Chicago.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I'm finding this October dreadfully frustrating so far. October is my favorite tropical month in a lot of ways, because you can get these really severe, deep-tropical systems-- the kind I really love-- but, man, the pattern just looks so dry right now. And we only have a few weeks of prime season left.

I shouldn't be greedy-- I got in the core of two strong hurricanes this year-- but for some reason, I don't feel totally satisfied yet. I feel like I need one last fix.