"Global Warming" and Hurricane Season 2009

Tony Propp

Hey everyone, I am going to be doing a hurricane tracking project this season. Before the season my tracking partner and I are discussing "Global Warming" and how it will effect the hurricane season. I believe we are in a neutral state this year so no El Nino or La Nina, this would be a good season to tell if global warming is actually so effective that it is effecting ocean temperatures. My partner believes we are actually in a global cooling because of how long the winter has lasted. I just wanted to know what everyone thinks about this upcoming Hurricane season. And if we are in a global cooling or warming.

Thank you,

Tony Propp
 
You should consider looking at other season, also. One hurricane season is nowhere near a large enough data set to determine any link to any kind of climate change. This is the same type of thing with people blaming the 2005 hurricane season on global warming. You're basically taking a snapshot at a single instance in time and trying to link it to something that is occurring over the course of years and decades. It'd be like picking any random day during the year, looking at the high and low, and then saying it was caused by a drought that was ongoing for the last 2-3 years. How do you know that this season isn't going to be anomalously active or inactive? This year (like 2005) could be an outlier in the stats.

I'm not trying to shoot down your study. But a proper statistical analysis would require several seasons to determine any link. Since you're wanting a study sans El Nino/La Nina, you need to look at other seasons with ENSO-neutral conditions.
 
When I was at the advanced spotting seminar at the Melbourne, NWS office, one met. pointed out an interesting feature to watch longterm (so not really a response to 2009 in particular) is whether we get more storms forming off the East (yes East) Coast of Africa, which would be rather an unambiguous trend.
 
Responding to a thread about hurricane energy release a few years ago, I posted
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showpost.php?p=112114&postcount=3

To my lay scientific thinking, this line of investigation is well worth more work IMHO. A scientifically sophisticated way of accurately quantifying tropical system energy release from remote sensing data might go a long way toward answering the questions you pose.

Note the basic points posited in my old post: energy release is exponentially related to both the intensity and size of a tropical storm; while the number of tropical storms has and may remain relatively constant. FWIW.
 
Best guess is that the "power" of tropical storms may be related to global climate change, but it is still very controversial. We had a speaker here at ISU talking about that idea. I forgot his name, but I think he was from MIT.

There remains a wide spectrum of viewpoints that provide many valid points yet to be fully addressed and understood. Same goes for severe weather in the central US. Changes in moisture and temperature would seem to favor increased severe weather, but changes in the jet stream would seem to favor a reduction in organized severe weather.
 
I agree with Chris. Hurricane data as well as any type of weather data has those exact same statistical issues. Also something to notice is the record of hurricanes and the moment we first started tracking them. Satellite and the Saffir-Simpson scale are relatively new, thus it might make it difficult to compare it to El Nino/La Nina.

Also don't forget the human factor in your research!

When you get done will you post your research for us?
 
I forgot his name, but I think he was from MIT.

If he was from MIT, it was Dr. Kerry Emanuel.

He has since changed his opinion and says the evidence, as it currently stands, does not support his original conclusion.

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/12/hurricane-expert-reassesses-climate-link/

And, to answer the second question, the earth is currently cooling. Note: That is not a prediction of the future. Earth's temperatures peaked in 1998 and all measures of heat content (air temperatures, sea surface temperatures, upper 750 meters of ocean heat, and sea level) have either lowered or leveled off.
 
Yes, Kerry, one needs funding for new projects at the college--without which his job might disappear. So, there might be motive (conscious or otherwise) here in changing his "opinion." and/or proposing new projects.

There is always a motive to do more research if you are a scientist. This isn't just something Emanuel did - it's science in general. And if the models he's been running recently are not accurately reflecting reality, then it was wise of him to change his opinion slightly. The opinion he is making now seems to be more aligned with the mainstream opinion on the subject.
 
I would suggest that you also look at sun spot activity. We are in a prolonged minimum with no up-count in sight.

I personally believe that all of the cattle in all of the feed lots emitting a large dose of methane every thirty minutes has less effect on AL Gore's global warming, aka climate change, than one itty-bitty sun spot emitting massive doses of energy...

Climate change has been going on since Earth was just a tiny sphere, sometimes heating sometimes cooling, but always changing...
 
Well guys I really appreciate all of this data, and you are definitely right about looking at other seasons, I'm new with hurricanes so that helps. My partner was also saying that i need to look at other years but i will definitely bring this up to her, and i will most definitely put all my research on here after the project! And my partner was right about the global cooling?
 
Colder and colder all the time eh Mike? Guess that's why we lost another big chunk of ice shelf end of April:

http://www.independent.co.uk/enviro...e-shelf-collapses-off-antarctica-1675400.html
(article begins. .)
An area of an Antarctic ice shelf almost the size of New York City has broken into icebergs this month after the collapse of an ice bridge widely blamed on global warming, a scientist said today.

"The northern ice front of the Wilkins Ice Shelf has become unstable and the first icebergs have been released," Angelika Humbert, glaciologist at the University of Muenster in Germany, said of European Space Agency satellite images of the shelf.

Humbert told Reuters about 700 sq km of ice - bigger than Singapore or Bahrain and almost the size of New York - has broken off the Wilkins this month and shattered into a mass of icebergs.

She said 370 sq kms of ice had cracked up in recent days from the Shelf, the latest of about 10 shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula to retreat in a trend linked by the UN Climate Panel to global warming.

---
And Tony be sure to look at all the sources of whatever research you do. There are a lot of agendas (including perhaps some at this site with corporate-funded forecasting) aiming to mislead:

Did global warming stop in 1998?
The skeptic argument...

For the years 1998-2005, temperature did not increase. And yes, this eight-year period of temperature stasis did coincide with society's continued power station and SUV-inspired pumping of yet more CO2 into the atmosphere. (Source: There IS a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998 by Bob Carter)
What the science says...

While 1998 was an unusually hot year due to El Nino, the long term trend since 1998 is still that of warming.

Temperature data shows year-to-year variations independent of long term warming or cooling trends. Volcanoes cause temporary cooling over several years while the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle lasts around 4 to 5 years. Fawcett 2007 examines the temperature data of three different data-sets (see also an updated version of the paper) to determine the long term trend amidst the short term variations.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm

better yet to use:
http://www.noaa.gov/climate.html

And Joe what do you think is going to be the effect of coming out of a solar minimum? Certainly not getting cooler. . . and why then did we warm during a solar minimum eh? Kinda gotta go with Nasa over "personal opinion" on this one:
--
According to a NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) press release, "...the solar increases do not have the ability to cause large global temperature increases...greenhouse gases are indeed playing the dominant role..." The effects of global warming are apparent (see section below) despite the fact that the Sun is once again less bright during the present solar minimum. Since the last solar minimum of 1996, the Sun's brightness has decreased by 0.02% at visible wavelengths, and 6% at extreme UV wavelengths, representing a 12-year low in solar irradiance, according to this NASA news article (April 1, 2009)
http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/glob-warm.html
--
A study forecasts that global warming will set in with a vengeance after 2009, with at least half of the five following years expected to be hotter than 1998, which was the warmest year on record.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/10/2001247.htm
[and that's back in 2007]

And let's remember not all opinions are equal on this subject, any more than dentists know about heart surgery:
--
The strongest consensus on the causes of global warming came from climatologists who are active in climate research, with 97 percent agreeing humans play a role.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/01/19/eco.globalwarmingsurvey/index.html

One of the researchers at FIT at the climate change panel suggested that for every half degree of temp. rise (for water temp.) we'd get about a half-category rise per storm intensity. (so not more storms, just more intense ones)

Similar claims have been made by other climatological researchers:
The Nature researchers estimate that every 1 degree C increase in sea-surface temperature would result in a 31% increase in the global frequency of category 4 and 5 storms.
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1839281,00.html
 
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I would suggest that you also look at sun spot activity. We are in a prolonged minimum with no up-count in sight.

Scientists are aware, thanks Joe. So far there has been little, if any, evidence that the change in solar irradiance due to the sunspot cycle has been great enough to change the climate as much as we have measured. This has been looked into over and over. It's likely part of the puzzle.

And I'm also not sure how this directly relates to the discussion at hand. I dont believe much discussion was happening regarding the mechanism for climate change, it was centered on possible changes in hurricanes due to the observed climatic changes.
 
I'd reiterate that IMO tracking an index of the number of tropical cyclones even with their S-S intensity is only measuring the rump and tail of a very large elephant. There's apparently not yet a good method for measuring their energy release, which is surprisingly large relative to other estimators for PBL temperature change. Where all this energy goes is clearly complicated and not well understood.

Another back-of-napkin calculation is that in a single day the "average" tropical cyclone releases enough latent energy to melt over 100 km^3 of ice -- of the order of magnitude to current estimates of the yearly melt of the Greenland ice cap. [3.3 x 10^5 J/kg heat of fusion, 10^12 kg/km^3]
 
Jason,

Since I am the only "Mike" who has posted on this topic, I assume you are addressing me. I did not say "colder and colder all the time"-- in fact I specifically said I was not making a prediction of the future. Suggest you carefully read posts before commenting on them.

I receive zero funding for my global warming work and would refuse to take any if it were offered. Your 'corporate forecasting' insinuation is ridiculous. Suggest, in the future, comments should be limited to the science.

The fact is Arctic ice is "normal" right now and Antarctic ice is above normal. World ice levels are just fine. Recent reductions in Arctic ice appear to be related to soot, not to CO2.

Yesterday, this excellent article was posted at Anthony Watts' "Watts Up With That" regarding Roger Pielke, Sr.'s, heat deficit research. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/06/the-global-warming-hypothesis-and-ocean-heat/ Some scientists believe the AGW hypothesis has already been falsified, for example, http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/ipcc-projections-continue-to-falsify/ .

You know, it would be a really good thing for the world and for humanity if the AGW hypothesis were falsified. Lets hope that turns out to be the case s we can get on to much more important environmental and humanitarian problems.

Mike
 
Hi Mike,

Only a small part of my post was referring to your words--especially about the 1998 canard. You didn't address any of the science though that debunks the "skeptic" position. I recall from another thread you didn't believe NASA either. Plus, you tend to report the same party line propaganda--your comment on sea ice is another example, making no acknowledgment of the diminishing LAND ice,

measurements of time-variable gravity, Velicogna 2007 determined mass variations of the entire Antarctic ice sheet from 2002 to 2005. They found the overall mass of the ice sheet decreased significantly, at a rate of 152 ± 80 cubic kilometers of ice per year (equivalent to 0.4 ± 0.2 millimeters of global sea-level rise per year). Most of this mass loss came from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
that is the key issue and that warming continues despite gains in SEA ice:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice.htm
When surface temperature increases, the upper ocean warms and ice growth decreases. This leads to a decrease in salt rejection from new ice. The salinity of the upper ocean falls. Lower salinity and warmer water results in lower water density in the upper ocean. With fresher, less dense upper water, there is now increased stratification of ocean layers which weakens convective overturning. Less ocean heat is transported upwards. This leads to a decrease in ice melting from ocean heat. Hence we observe an increase in net ice production - sea ice increases.


And I do admit a skepticism about acuweather.com though that's not to say you're personally subject to GCC (so you may honestly believe everything independently, that's all possible), but interesting to read about:
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=AccuWeather%27s_science_for_hire

Global Climate Coalition (GCC), an industry front group that opposed mandates to prevent global warming, bolstered its case using "science for hire" provided by AccuWeather, a private weather forecasting firm.

GCC asserted that "science must serve as the foundation for overall global climate policy decisions and enhanced scientific research must be the first priority. A bedrock principle addressing global climate change issues is that science -- not emotional or political reactions -- must serve as the foundation for global climate policy decisions." In direct contradiction to these lofty goals, however, the GCC and individual members provided public platforms for the handful of scientists who are skeptical of the consensus that there is a human influence on the global climate. These scientists generally do not participate in the accepted process of publishing research in refereed journals in order to test hypotheses and conclusions. They also generally do not have expertise in the topic. Moreover, the GCC went even further than just providing public relations services for these skeptic scientists. They also attacked credible and preeminent scientists who are experts in the field.

An example of GCC's own sloppy approach to science occurred in early 1995, when a team of researchers from the U.S. National Climatic Data Center, led by Tom Karl, documented an increase in climatic instability in the form of more extreme weather events in the U.S. during the previous two decades. The NCDC's study analyzed all the U.S. weather data compiled since the beginning of weather instrumentation. It found altered drought and rainfall patterns, significantly more rain and snow falling in intense, severe downpours, and nighttime low temperatures rising faster than daytime high temperatures. The NCDC study noted that the changes it documented were precisely what the current generation of computer models projected as the early stages of global warming.

The GCC responded by rushing out a study of its own, performed by AccuWeather, a private weather forecasting firm. The AccuWeather report contradicted the NCDC's findings, claiming that "temperature and precipitation extremes are no more common now than they were 50 to 100 years ago." Unlike the NCDC study, however, AccuWeather's report drew on temperature data from only three cities in the U.S. -- Augusta, GA, State College, PA, and Des Moines, IA -- hardly a broad-based sample. For precipitation, it drew on data from only one city -- Los Angeles, CA. Moreover, the AccuWeather study combined satellite and surface temperature data -- an error, because satellite data measures temperatures in a layer of the atmosphere that may be affected differently by changes in greenhouse gases.

GCC's public relations effort to get their side of the story into the media led to their press conference receiving much more attention than Tom Karl's vastly superior scientific efforts. Steven H. Schneider, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, attributed this disparity to what he called a "one fax-one vote syndrome" among journalists.
--

Lastly, here's an interview with Kerry Emmanuel on his hurricane papers, including the difficulty of media distortion (not all on one side either):

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/emanuel-qanda-0429.html

and his last paper described:
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/emanuel-paper-0417.html
Includes some nuance:
However, Emanuel says, the new work also raises some questions that remain to be understood. When projected into the future, the model shows a continuing increase in power, "but a lot less than the factor of two that we've already seen" he says. "So we have a paradox that remains to be explained."

There are several possibilities, Emanuel says. "The last 25 years' increase may have little to do with global warming, or the models may have missed something about how nature responds to the increase in carbon dioxide."

Another possibility is that the recent hurricane increase is related to the fast pace of increase in temperature. The computer models in this study, he explains, show what happens after the atmosphere has stabilized at new, much higher CO2 concentrations. "That's very different from the process now, when it's rapidly changing," he says.

In the many different computer runs with different models and different conditions, "the fact is, the results are all over the place," Emanuel says. But that doesn't mean that one can't learn from them. And there is one conclusion that's clearly not consistent with these results, he said: "The idea that there is no connection between hurricanes and global warming, that's not supported," he says.
 
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