First Winter Storm of the Season in the Central Plains

[Mike Smith]

Looks like the first winter storm of the season will bring heavy snow along a CAO-BGR-P28-EWK-MKC axis and about 60 mi. either side of that line.

More information here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/12/more-on-predicted-winter-storm-in.html

Mike Umschied has a nice forecast and writeup on his blog: www.underthemeso.com/highplainswx.php?p=55

This should get everyone in the Christmas spirit.

 

[RMacDonald]

This will be great for all the kids in the KS/OK areas with plenty of snowfall to make it feel like Christmas. I have ran my model output for Dodge City area. Right now I am showing precip starting in the 17-19Z on the 19th. The heaviest snowfall beginning around 22Z hour. Snowfall rates are between 1.1" to 1.4" between 23Z-04Z, and then generally .8 to 1" rates after that. Visibilities easily down to less then 1/4 mile. Winds will also be a factor as I am seeing winds in the low to mid 30's for gust, which will give good potential for blowing snow. There is a better then 75% chance of Blizzard Conditions also across the area. Uploaded latest output here for DDC http://smartwxmodel.net/KDDC.htm

 

[RMacDonald]

Just pushed another update. Tracking Dalhart,TX to Liberal-Hayes-Dodge City, KS areas with greatest potential for blizzard conditions. Seeing area of snow accumulation of 12-14" between the Dodge City and Hayes Area, with snowfall rates up to 1.4" per hour. Combined with a good amount of winds up to around 45-50mph, many impacts to power, road, and air travel through this period. Right now seeing from 19/22Z to 20/17Z as the strongest impact of the storm across the area. Full output uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm

 

[Chris Carter]

This isn't a real central plains storm, its more of a southern plains storm. But you guys need the moisture out there after the drought and fires you had over the summer and fall. How many of you are buying into the deep south snowstorm after Christmas that the GFS is constantly advertising?

 

[RMacDonald]

Just pushed out a 19/22Z Update. Current cities under my highest threat is Liberal, Dodge City, Garden City, Hayes, KS. In Oklahoma: Guymon. In Texas: Dalhart. RIght Now Hayes, KS is looking at the most accumulating snow from 22Z to 09Z, with 8.4" of snow. Dalhart is next with 8". Areas of strong winds gusting up to 55mph are possible across the area. Full list and data updated http://smartwxmodel.net

 

[Mike Smith]

As I promised in another thread, here is the verification posting: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/12/how-good-or-bad-were-blizzard-forecasts.html