First 2006 high risk

[Mikey Gribble]

April 14 - eastern Kansas

 

[David Wolfson]

April 27th: eastern KS, southeast NE, western MO

... then it gets stable for the beginning of May (my chase trip) :roll:

 

[Jay Cazel]

I will have to go with June 5th 2006 for parts of Kansas and Oklahoma...the reason is that is when we always take the family vaction so I will miss it.. :lol:

 

[beaudodson]

First high risk? Thursday or Friday of this week might be a good bet. March 9/10. Looks like Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Missouri, and Kentucky - region.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

That March 9 system certainly looks entertaining. GFS upper air wind speed are rediculous which translated to SRH on some point soundings between 1500 and 2000 m2/s2. That said, I'll hold the high risk until May 4 for eastern NE and KS.

 

[Brett Adair]

3/9/06 - WRN TN/MS/WRN AL/ERN LA

 

[Mark Farnik]

May 31 - northeast CO/southwest NE/NW Kansas in crazy post frontal upslope flow with dewpoints in the high 60's riding in on a howling, saturated southeasterly wind and a east to west jet max directly overhead!!! :twisted: And I'd even be out of school in time to chase it...
If eastern Colorado ever is put under high risk, I will either a) start searching the skies for airborne porcine mammals, B) be able to finally confirm that the global weather pattern has been thrown for a loop, or c) all of the above. :roll:

Seriously, though...

First high risk of '06: Friday, May 5th, Southern Plains (TX/OK Panhandles, western OK, southwestern Kansas, maybe a sliver of southeast CO)
If this would for some strange reason pan out, I will definitely be ditching school that day!
Very close second choice for first high risk would be March 9th or 10th (depending on how progressive this system is) in the areas Brett Adair outlined. If everything comes together as predicted, we could be looking at an outbreak potentially as violent or more violent than the March 1, 1997 or April 16, 1998 outbreak. (The former which produced the infamous F4 that struck the south side of Little Rock, the latter which produced the F3 that devastated downtown Nashville and also produced an F5 near Deerfield in the southern part of TN)

If this proves to be a volatile chase season with lots of High Risks, should we refer to it for all posterity as "High Risk 2006"? (I call dibs on that name for my chase video if the season pans out that way, BTW!)
:twisted:

 

[Chris C Sanner]

April 10

SW OK/Western North Texas

They're gonna call it "Miserable Monday" to keep with the alliterations of the day

All I have to say :lol:

 

[Tony Lyza]

Originally posted by Mark Farnik
Very close second choice for first high risk would be March 9th or 10th (depending on how progressive this system is) in the areas Brett Adair outlined. If everything comes together as predicted, we could be looking at an outbreak potentially as violent or more violent than the March 1, 1997 or April 16, 1998 outbreak.

3/1/97 had seven F4s! :shock:

But really, I'm sticking with my prediction for Thursday being the day. The 00z GFS last night held that firm for me.

 

[Brandon Clement]

April 4th, bullseye between Memphis and Little Rock.

 

[Paul Austin]

This is a "High Risk" area we're talking about, right? O.K. No real expertise exercised in this prediction, but if history serves me correctly, it'll happen around May 13/14 - the weekend just prior to my arrival to the plains :cry: . And it'll clear everything out for the first week of my chase vacation. No, wait, think positive, Paul......May 20, SE Kansas. That's my final answer.

 

[Jeremy Bower]

I'll put my two cents in...

First High Risk of 2006 - May 11 (the day in the course of the calendar year the most tornadoes have been recorded on)

That and this falls between the first week of May when I have finals and the week after this date when I'll be chasing for 2 weeks. That will probably be my luck...lol.

 

[Todd Beal]

I have a feeling it could very well be tomorrow, March 9th for the Lower MS Valley....

I think the wind threat still poses a low end high threat regardless if there are tornadoes or not. But I will leave that for another thread.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

March 12
Arkansas, Western Tennessee, Missourri, Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky, Mississippi

I predict that if the model runs verify, this will be A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK with likelihood of STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES.

THIS WILL BE A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

 

[Jason McKittrick]

I too have a feeling tomorrow, March 12, will be the first high risk day. It would appear that tomorrow is definitely one of those synopticly evident days. Convection this evening, while it has been fairly widespread and very intense, IMO does not seem to be showing any signs of upscale development. It looks to me as if we will continue to see discrete cells overnight and avoid the Day 2 contaminating blob convection.