First 2006 high risk

[Andy Wehrle]

To rekindle a similar topic started about this time in 2005, guess the first time and place we will see this on the SPC page:

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM XXX YYY ZZZ

***SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...INCLUDING STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED THIS AFTEROON AND EVENING***

In 2005 there were three high risks, which is relatively few compared to recent years with the exception of 2000.

1998-6
1999-7
2000-0
2001-5
2002-4
2003-6
2004-5
2005-3

April 11 was a complete out-and-out bust.

June 04 was a bust for many chasers although the high risk forecast verified in the sense that there were strong (or potentially strong if they had hit well-anchored structures) tornadoes that day and they did occur within the high risk area.

November 15 was also a good forecast, with several F3 and F2 tornadoes and 1 F4 (the only tornado higher than F3 all year) occurring within the high risk area.

Number of high risks by month since 1988:

January: 1
February: 1
March: 4
April: 16
May: 21
June: 6
July: 2
August: 1
September: 0
October: 2
November: 4
December: 1

 

[Jeff Snyder]

To rekindle a similar topic started about this time in 2005, guess the first time and place we will see this on the SPC page:

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM XXX YYY ZZZ

Since the SPC does not include the "... TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ..." text any more in their SWODYs, I say we will not see said text this year... Of course, I know what you mean, but I just wanted to point that out.

My guess for first high risk? May 2nd, OK/KS

EDIT 3/2/06 2am: Forgot to name a location ...

 

[Dan Robinson]

April 23 - Indiana and Ohio

 

[mike scantlin]

april 13, TX/OK panhandles

 

[George Tincher]

I am a big gambler, so I am going to go with March 9th, with Arkansas as the bullseye. :wink:

 

[Tony Lyza]

I going to gamble with George here. Until the models change, next Thursday would have a good chance of being a high risk.

 

[Jason Boggs]

June 7th north central KS

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I am a big gambler, so I am going to go with March 9th, with Arkansas as the bullseye. :wink:

If the 00z GFS even comes close to verifying, I have to agree.

Gabe

 

[Jason McKittrick]

I think the first high risk will be April 15th in southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma.

 

[Marko Korosec]

I am going with Tony and George, I would say March 9th for OK/AR/MO with center of HIGH RISK where their borderlines crossing :wink:

(If you give me a 2nd chance I pick April 27th TX/OK)

 

[Dick McGowan]

Mine would be LA/ARK/Miss area March 17th /quote]

I took a stab at it back in December, but I'd probably up it a week, so that I may relax my favorite day out of the year. :wink:

 

[Tim Gonyo]

May 13, 2006 - S WI/N IL

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

April 16 - Ohio Valley

 

[Robert Dewey]

Tomorrow. Detroit Michigan. Massive F5. Wedge.

 

[Mickey Ptak]

I think the first high risk will be between now and June. :wink: Oh... We are suppose to pick a date. Sorry.

April 29 Oklahoma

Aaron you should be ashamed of yourself... Ohio Valley. :roll: Who’s side are you on here.

Mick