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First 2006 high risk

To rekindle a similar topic started about this time in 2005, guess the first time and place we will see this on the SPC page:

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM XXX YYY ZZZ

***SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...INCLUDING STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED THIS AFTEROON AND EVENING***

In 2005 there were three high risks, which is relatively few compared to recent years with the exception of 2000.

1998-6
1999-7
2000-0
2001-5
2002-4
2003-6
2004-5
2005-3

April 11 was a complete out-and-out bust.

June 04 was a bust for many chasers although the high risk forecast verified in the sense that there were strong (or potentially strong if they had hit well-anchored structures) tornadoes that day and they did occur within the high risk area.

November 15 was also a good forecast, with several F3 and F2 tornadoes and 1 F4 (the only tornado higher than F3 all year) occurring within the high risk area.

Number of high risks by month since 1988:

January: 1
February: 1
March: 4
April: 16
May: 21
June: 6
July: 2
August: 1
September: 0
October: 2
November: 4
December: 1
 
To rekindle a similar topic started about this time in 2005, guess the first time and place we will see this on the SPC page:

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM XXX YYY ZZZ

Since the SPC does not include the "... TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ..." text any more in their SWODYs, I say we will not see said text this year... Of course, I know what you mean, but I just wanted to point that out.

My guess for first high risk? May 2nd, OK/KS

EDIT 3/2/06 2am: Forgot to name a location ...
 
I going to gamble with George here. Until the models change, next Thursday would have a good chance of being a high risk.
 
I am going with Tony and George, I would say March 9th for OK/AR/MO with center of HIGH RISK where their borderlines crossing :wink:

(If you give me a 2nd chance I pick April 27th TX/OK)
 
I think the first high risk will be between now and June. :wink: Oh... We are suppose to pick a date. Sorry.

April 29 Oklahoma

Aaron you should be ashamed of yourself... Ohio Valley. :roll: Who’s side are you on here. :)

Mick
 
I think the first high risk will be between now and June. :wink: Oh... We are suppose to pick a date. Sorry.

April 29 Oklahoma
lol man, you did it again! you're killing me :lol: Remember what you've said few weeks ago about "the next big one in OKC"? The real question is will we see any tornadoes in Oklahoma period. 2005 repeat? Shut up Mick...lol.

Well afterall April 29th would be fine for me, since I am in TX/OK after April 27th. :wink:
 
To rekindle a similar topic started about this time in 2005, guess the first time and place we will see this on the SPC page:

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM XXX YYY ZZZ

Since the SPC does not include the "... TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ..." text any more in their SWODYs, I say we will not see said text this year... Of course, I know what you mean, but I just wanted to point that out.

Yeah it was a trick question!!!! You're all wrong because that's not possible anymore!!!! :twisted:

lol j/k

How about this...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER YOUR HOUSE...IT KNOWS WHERE YOU LIVE! :lol:
 
Rofl. :lol: That's April 4, a mere MOD :lol: :p :lol:

Brody Brody Brody... MOD no no... The balck notch is actually a step up from a high risk notch. Black means - :shock: Blackout! Well ok, it actualy means you better pack-up and move and you better do it fast. Yeah kinda like that.

Damn I need to chase.

Mick
 
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