V. Gensini
EF1
Tealeaves time...
SDS is setting in for me (despite the above average T's here so far thus winter), and I'm eager to get back on the plains. Thus, I've whipped up a few composites of some ingredient anomalies for AMJ following a below average US/ Southern CAN snowpack. Determining a below average Nov-Feb snowpack was completely subjective on my part (looking through historical plots). Since '79, I tallied 7 years (86-87; 87-88; 89-90; 90-91; 91-92; 99-00; 01-02) that recorded a large area with below average ('79-'10) snowpack. Maybe some folks can comment on the exact specifics of those winters as I don't have the greatest memory...
To get a sense of what the following springs consisted of, I examined NARR anomaly fields for the AMJ following a below average snowpack year. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but it's fun to examine
. FWIW, I put little stock into long range forecasting.
I'm aware that 1988 was very anomalous in terms of the synoptic pattern during AMJ, and I ran all of the fields with and without 1988 included. Leaving 1988 out did not have a large impact on the results, so it is included in the plots below.
500 hPa Height
Generally, higher heights in these years across the CONUS.
300 hPa Zonal Wind Anomaly
Jet is weaker across central and southern Plains, but stronger as one gets into the Dakotas.
MSLP Anomaly
Argues for a stronger and more northerly displaced ridge.
2m Temp Anomaly
Average/Above average T's; associated with higher heights; most pronounced in the Northern Plains.
2m Dewpoint Anomaly
Most of the plains running below average...Current GOM SST's are running ~1 C above normal.
CAPE Anomaly
Increase in temps outweighs the decrease in dewpoints and CAPE runs just above average in most of the Plains. Lots o' CAPE, no shear?
CIN Temp Anomaly
Danger...NARR doesn't do the best with CIN. Stronger lid in Te-jas again? Personally, I'm okay with this
Comparing AMJ tor reports for these below average snowpack years to the AMJ climo is also interesting. Obviously, given only 7 years, one can't say too much. Interestingly, this analysis argues for an above average CO year (weird as NARR suggests the largest negative dewpoint anomalies there), with a hint of more action further to the north in the better shear. Southern/Central TX also appears below average in the report database during these years. Other than that, there are no large subjective discrepancies from the average climo...
SDS cured (for today anyway).
SDS is setting in for me (despite the above average T's here so far thus winter), and I'm eager to get back on the plains. Thus, I've whipped up a few composites of some ingredient anomalies for AMJ following a below average US/ Southern CAN snowpack. Determining a below average Nov-Feb snowpack was completely subjective on my part (looking through historical plots). Since '79, I tallied 7 years (86-87; 87-88; 89-90; 90-91; 91-92; 99-00; 01-02) that recorded a large area with below average ('79-'10) snowpack. Maybe some folks can comment on the exact specifics of those winters as I don't have the greatest memory...
To get a sense of what the following springs consisted of, I examined NARR anomaly fields for the AMJ following a below average snowpack year. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but it's fun to examine
. FWIW, I put little stock into long range forecasting.I'm aware that 1988 was very anomalous in terms of the synoptic pattern during AMJ, and I ran all of the fields with and without 1988 included. Leaving 1988 out did not have a large impact on the results, so it is included in the plots below.
500 hPa Height
Generally, higher heights in these years across the CONUS.
300 hPa Zonal Wind Anomaly
Jet is weaker across central and southern Plains, but stronger as one gets into the Dakotas.
MSLP Anomaly
Argues for a stronger and more northerly displaced ridge.
2m Temp Anomaly
Average/Above average T's; associated with higher heights; most pronounced in the Northern Plains.
2m Dewpoint Anomaly
Most of the plains running below average...Current GOM SST's are running ~1 C above normal.
CAPE Anomaly
Increase in temps outweighs the decrease in dewpoints and CAPE runs just above average in most of the Plains. Lots o' CAPE, no shear?
CIN Temp Anomaly
Danger...NARR doesn't do the best with CIN. Stronger lid in Te-jas again? Personally, I'm okay with this
Comparing AMJ tor reports for these below average snowpack years to the AMJ climo is also interesting. Obviously, given only 7 years, one can't say too much. Interestingly, this analysis argues for an above average CO year (weird as NARR suggests the largest negative dewpoint anomalies there), with a hint of more action further to the north in the better shear. Southern/Central TX also appears below average in the report database during these years. Other than that, there are no large subjective discrepancies from the average climo...
SDS cured (for today anyway).
