Chase Case #11

[brody_clifton]

Amazingly, after seeing the 18Z data, I was able to catch a last minute flight to Topeka, KS. Sitting here at 2pm, keeping an eye on the eroding stratus deck to my north and NW and watching for cumulus growth west and SW of here. I'm hoping this area will remain at least somewhat under the right rear quadrant of the upper energy moving through the great lakes region.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

I think with the upslope and mid 60’s & upper 50’s Td wrapping into ne Co Sterling is the place to be.

 

[Joel Wright]

Apparently I'm tripping on some sort of mind altering drug here in Lawrence KS waiting to see if anything is going to happen. It seems that my concept of time has really slowed down, time is almost standing still. It's still early afternoon I guess..

 

[James McCormick]

OK, OK, after an excruciatingly long 2 hours in which I mysteriously had to work all day, it is at long last 20 Z and new data is available - do you catch a plane to somewhere else, or drive down the road, or stick it out?!

Guess away, and I'll have the solution up by the end of tonight. Thanks everybody who has played.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm gonna head towards West Lafayette, IN along that band of Tcu's. I wouldn't be surprised if the stuff in south/central IL takes off and produces a TOR either - there are quite a few stations still reporting backed SFC winds.

 

[nickgrillo]

I'm going to agree with Rob there... Westcentral IN looks like a great spot -- considering the healthy path of Cu forming right along the sfc trough, and right in an area of backed SSE surface flow (compared to the sfc winds veered to the WSW behind the boundary).

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Although IN. looks tempting, I can’t find a flight, so I’ll stick it out in ne CO with the clearing skies and upslope.

 

[James McCormick]

OK... Embellished chase details :lol:

#1... David Wolfson, who is on his 'fools chase' :lol:, slips south out of Canandaigua at 18Z as the storm in Allegany County turns tornadic, and drives south, but due to a complicated road network and trees, just misses the early day tornadoes from a storm but the storm is still rotating nicely.

#2... Joel Wright in Lawrence Kansas gets the treat of updrafts and a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings but the storms lack organization and quickly become multicellular. Still a nice lightning show as the thunderstorms last well after sundown.

#3... Non severe thunderstorms develop from northern Indiana through northern Illinois late in the afternoon. Those in the region have the pleasure of updrafts and lightning as the sun goes down but no severe weather.

#4... Late in the afternoon on the high plains, Shane Adams heads west towards developing cumulus to the distant west and northwest. As he gets closer, deep updrafts develop. If he chooses the southern updraft, 90 miles to the northwest of Scottsbluff, he arrives near the town of Douglas in Converse County in plenty of time to witness a weak tornado north of town. If he chooses the 2nd updraft from the southern edge, he arrives near the town of Wright, Wyoming in time to see an F2 tornado which will affect a significant portion of the town.

Folks in Sterling at 18Z, if they jump north and west fast enough, can get to Converse County by 22 Z. Otherwise they enjoy nocturnal convection as thunderstorms develop southward near sundown.

The day is August 12, 2005.

David Wolfson is closest to tornadoes. Timing, trees, and road directions make things hard for him, but this is embellished, I'll say he got the last 'nader of the storm, so I'll give him the nod. Shane Adams is farther away but more likely to get to storms in time for tornadoes.

Thanks everybody for playing.
Selected radar images will be posted here tonight:
http://www.openprarieexperiences.com/Augus...rnadoEvent.html

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well, at least I seen something... LOL

 

[Joel Wright]

Well at least I got a nice tan, shot a near par round of golf ( :wink: ), apparently tried some mind altering substances, and still got to see some decent storms.


8)

 

[Darin Brunin]

Well at least I got a nice tan, shot a near par round of golf ( :wink: ), apparently tried some mind altering substances, and still got to see some decent storms.


8)

You must have been hanging around on Mass. St. with the hippies

 

[David Wolfson]

Geez! I "won"? I just woke up after catching up on my sleep, from my thirty straight hours of driving....

Thanks for the case, Jim! I'm going back to sleep , so if Shane or another wants the next one, please go ahead.

 

[Shane Adams]

No thanks, so whoever wants it jump on it.

 

[Alex Lamers]

I'll get one up sometime today. It should be a vintage one...an oldie but goodie .

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Scott Olson]

Thanks for taking the time to put all this up James!

-Scott.