With a raging MCS still ongoing in Iowa this morning (still tornado warned as I write this) the 1998-05-31 analogue may not be far from correct. According to mesoanalysis this thing will run out of CAPE to work with soon, but I'm not sure it will fizzle out. Dewpoints in the upper 60's to around 70 seem present in N IL/S WI/S MI. If it maintains it's current intensity it seems like game over for tornadic supercells unless something can go up ahead of the line and remain isolated.
I'm here in Michigan at the moment but may take a jog south and hope for something on the southern end of that line. We'll see. I'm eagerly awaiting the 12Z sondes from DVN, ILX, GRB, APX and DTX. Would like to see a little better mid level lapse rates, especially over MI (5.5 really?) if we were to get something discrete ahead of this junk.
Tough forecast today, tough target, way too many obstacles. Kind of wishing I had gone home yesterday