2015-06-22 EVENT: IA,IL,IN,MN,MI,OH,WI,

[Joe Jeffers]

Of course I bet things will change tomorrow morning on the exact target, but good points. I believe the storm debris in the morning is the only question. Hopefully I can get on the storm prior to linear development and HP fully kicks in.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

With a raging MCS still ongoing in Iowa this morning (still tornado warned as I write this) the 1998-05-31 analogue may not be far from correct. According to mesoanalysis this thing will run out of CAPE to work with soon, but I'm not sure it will fizzle out. Dewpoints in the upper 60's to around 70 seem present in N IL/S WI/S MI. If it maintains it's current intensity it seems like game over for tornadic supercells unless something can go up ahead of the line and remain isolated.

I'm here in Michigan at the moment but may take a jog south and hope for something on the southern end of that line. We'll see. I'm eagerly awaiting the 12Z sondes from DVN, ILX, GRB, APX and DTX. Would like to see a little better mid level lapse rates, especially over MI (5.5 really?) if we were to get something discrete ahead of this junk.

Tough forecast today, tough target, way too many obstacles. Kind of wishing I had gone home yesterday

 

[rdale]

Well the DTX lapse rate is 6 Surprised to see a heavy shower already pop up in our area.

 

[chrisbray]

I am waiting to see how this MCS plays out, but I have to imagine there will still be a play somewhere in E IA/S WI/ NE IL later today.

 

[rdale]

Well this has turned to crap. Not at all what I expected... MCS died, new stuff formed over the lake, hoped those would flare but they didn't, now a watch is issued for no reason I can see (other than maybe east of 127). Here's to hoping we get something later today?

 

[Jasonpaquette]

The atmosphere here in extreme southern MI has rebounded very quickly with CAPE values climbing above 2500 behind the earlier MCS. I still hold out hope.

 

[Robert Forry]

22Z HRRR forecasting storms to fire in MI ahead of the CF at 01Z. It was right on earlier with that MCS and its timing, though I was holding out hope for one embedded supercells. We're still in the mid 60s/low 70s for surface dews at 0Z, but mid level lapse rates are pretty stable (5-6) per mesoanalysis.