• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

2021-03-16 EVENT: OK/AR/TX

Joined
May 6, 2005
Messages
292
Location
Moore, OK
I am slightly intrigued by the nocturnal event setting up today. Currently, there are 60 Tds near the DFW metroplex.
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HiRes models show mediocre moisture advection into Oklahoma throughout the day. But by this evening we see much more robust advection, with 60 Tds widespread in OK by 09z per the RAP.

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Had this event been 12 hours earlier or later, we would have likely seen a very good setup. But since it appears the best ingredients will come together in the overnight hours, there is a lot of uncertainty.

Area wide forecast soundings from HRRR (via TropicalTidbits) shows that the SBCinh weakens around 09z for central Oklahoma. A decent environment is in place with SBCAPE of 1500 and MLCAPE > 2000.

It will be interesting to see what the CAMS spit out on today's 12z runs. Will discrete supercells develop late this evening? Will it be more of a qlcs event?

Thoughts?

Also included TX and AR for some potential prefrontal warm sector convection potential.
 
I am watching this event closely from Tulsa, OK. The area in the vicinity of the surface low may have a decent shot at surface based convection overnight. Any supercell rooted in the boundary layer may become tornadic, however there is a lot of uncertainty as to whether or not this will happen. Another area may be along the warm front in the Ark-La-Tex region as strong height falls lead to ascent across the area. Again, had this been better timed, a significant severe weather episode would have been in the cards for the southern plains.
 
18z 3km NAM is painting a very curious scenario in NW TX and SW Okla. A round of supercells predicted to fire up around 00z. If this does happen I would be intrigued the southern most storm. It could potentially ride a corridor of low 60 Tds and a strengthening LLJ.

We do have some Cu developing near Lubbock... so maybe this isn't too far fetched.
 
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