Blizzard of 2006: The Biggest Snowstorm in NYC History

[HAltschule]

WOW. Models have come into agreement (for the most part) with bombogenesis along the Southern New England coastline this weekend. Temperatures should be plenty cold enough for all snow in MOST places as the low deepens down to 980mb and lower. The 1000mb track is favorable for a big storm and the 850mb low track is super-favorable for a classic heavy Northeast snowstorm. Even though the exact movement will likely change by verification time, it looks like places from Eastern PA into the Catkills and Western New England (including all of NJ, NYC, CT and MA) stand to get clobbered. I would think 6-12" is a safe conservative first forecast with some places in the higher elevations likely to see 12-20". Now, of course, this forecast depends on whether this actually pans out the way the ETA is forecasting. And in this business, 3-4 days out is always a big IF.

 

[Justin Bailey]

i think this topic could be expanded to cover portions of the south as well. parts of tennessee, alabama, and kentucky could see significant snowfall on the 10th-11th. i think that 4-7" would be a good estimation based on the latest eta run with up to 10" possible in a few locations. For most thats not much, but down here in the south thats a big snowstorm and will have things shutdown for several days. better stock up on everything.
special wx statement, nashvillle NWS: THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...UP TO 4" OR MORE.

 

[Tony Laubach]

This topic has been moved from Maproom to Weather & Chasing as snowstorms aren't allowed in the Map Room area.

 

[HAltschule]

As can be expected this far out...the 18z ETA has trended further offshore and the GFS Further inland a bit. GFS crushes the Northeast with snow.

FYI...How about that 540 thickness line into Tampa on Sunday? Wow. I'm glad I won't be there on vacation this weekend!!

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Ensemble forecasts definitely see this as snow ... I was surprised to see a definitive change between the 12z and 18z NAM with the bombogenesis taking place further off shore and places such as southern New England getting less snow ... and the timing to be significantly later ... instead of Sat. Night (12z) it is forecasted for Sunday morning (18z) in the NAM

Still, ensembles are suggesting the mean preciptation to begin to creep into southern portions of New England at 00Z Sunday ... standard deviations are moderately high for regions of New England suggesting some distrust (as of 00Z Thursday forecasts) ...

In addition the GFS has the storm moving out quickly compared to NAM and the left exit region at 300 moving well off shore ... compare the 72 hour forecasts at 18z.

GFS puts down more liquid equivalent further west than what the NAM tends to in the 18z, yet both models are roughly similar in the 12z runs.

Should be interesting to see the next set of runs with regards to the NAM ... such a change.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Like I said in an earlier thread, WINTER RETURNING TO THE US and I believe that was well over a week ago. Someone sure nailed this one and
it doesnt just end with this weekend either as a look at the long range forecasts reveals such.

 

[HAltschule]

ANOTHER TARGETED WINTER RECON FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR 00Z...WITH ADDITIONAL WINTER STORM RECON SCHEDULED THE FOLLOWING DAY OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST. SEE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS /PMDHMD/ AND WINTER WEATHER /QPFHSD/ DISCUSSIONS FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS CYCLONE.

Very Interesting. This from HPC Extended branch. I did not realize that NOAA was doing aircraft recon flights into winter storms now. neat. Will have to look into this some more.

PS: New 00z ETA just coming in. This run brings storm about 100 miles further west. Increased heavy snow potential and perhaps Blizzard Conditions for parts of Eastern PA, NJ and into SE New York. Looks like we may be backing into a blockbuster storm.

Edit: ETA FOUS is now in for the 00z run. How does Blizzard conditions, heavy snow, 15-20" of snow and 35-45 mph winds sound to you? this is what the model is giving LGA on Sunday. Even more interesting by the run.

 

[rdale]

" I did not realize that NOAA was doing aircraft recon flights into winter storms now. neat. Will have to look into this some more. "

This has gone on for at least a few years - as I recall it's the same product used to tell of hurricane hunter plans...

 

[HAltschule]

I didn't realize that about the recon flights. Thanks for the info. It seems like this is going to be one of the storms that could use the recon flights. With the discrepancies in the different models and the huge differences that each one could have on the metro areas, no doubt it will be helpful in forecasting this thing.

I noticed NWSOKX hoisted a Blizzard Watch for much of the NYC area. I'm concerned that there will be a fast cutoff line for many areas to the north and west. The models have flip-flopped again at 06z and are now further offshore. While Southern/Eastern New England is going to get slammed, I'd like to see more consistency in a more inland track for us to get blockbuster snows here in Albany. A track similar to this MM5 00z run would be very nice. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2...slp.60.0000.gif

As of now though, snow chasers should be in Cape Cod for this storm!!

EDIT: New 12z models have flip-flopped again and now bring coastal storm out to sea south of New York City. While this 12z scenario may mean 2-4" of snow, it is MUCH less than what the models showed yesterday. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the trend is further offshore. So, I am now much more skeptical that this storm will be too progressive and stay out to sea. No reall wind max coming around the base of the upper low to swing it inland. At least not as of now. Dazed and confuesd :shock:

 

[Dan Robinson]

So here we go again. The question still remains, will we get and stay below freezing here in Charleston. That has been the deciding factor for us not seeing significant snows for nearly every potential event this year.

I like the models' indication of upslope kicking in for the later half of tomorrow, and how right now evaporative cooling is plunging temps about 10 degrees as the precip moves in. For CRW, I don't like the trajectory of the precip (moving off to the east too fast) and the low only being about 30F tonight - not quite cold enough to ensure much accumulation. CRW should be above freezing for a big chunk of the event on Saturday. Looks like I might still have to look to my friends to the east, the mountains, to help me see at least one significant snowfall this year. BKW-LWB are in a better position for both upslope snow and the swath of the current precip bands, plus the nice benefit of being below freezing for most of the event.

 

[Ericka B. Gray]

Here in Boston, we've got a blizzard watch issued with snow not predicted to start for more than 12 hours yet. Predictions are for 8-14 inches of snow. Whooie! Winter is finally here! A true nor'easter is coming our way.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Latest 12z NAM still has the storm coming in way later than expected ... during the late evening Sat to early morning Sunday. Precipitation amounts are a bit higher at nearly 1" liquid equivalent in southern NE and the storm track closer to the coast ...

What surprises me is two things: first that it looks like southern NJ and DelMar peninsula are going to get the worst ... and between the 24 and 30 hr forecast the snow band weakens significantly as the storm passes NE'wd. The 500 mb vorticity sure expands and is still intense which collaberates with the deepening of the storm. Then again at 300 mb the intense gradient within the left exit region between 24 and 30 hr suggests stronger divergence aloft ... I'm curious though at the 30 hr forecast the jet up NewFoundland is playing a significant role in terms of the right entrance ... large scale dynamics here ... what is the model taking into account to weaken the snow band within the forecast? I can only assume that it might be something related to the adjecent right entrance region, or something unable to be seen like shearing patterns aloft that are widening the swath of moisture ahead of the low pressure center rather along the northwestern side of the low ...

Either way awaiting to see what the GFS has in store ... this storm still looks great and will finally turn the dismal brown into wonderful white around here in CT

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Checking out the 09z SHEF forecast gives a really good sense of where the major lift will be occurring based on the model's track. Click on LIFT and start playing around with the 700 mb Omega values for instance. Still looks like a general consensus that from southern NJ and a line drawn to MV/NT/CC will get the worst of the snow falls.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

 

[B Ozanne]

Hopefully the post storm photo will be much more exciting. 3:50pm on 2/11/06

Edit: Photo moved to page 2.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

You must have a nice landscaper and quite a bit of money

Now the question is how far east are you and how close to the coast?

Back to watching Storm Team 8