Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[Jeff Duda]

I'm sure everyone's SDS is getting worse by the day, but keep the faith - active severe weather will eventually come. I've been watching Greg Carbin's CFS graphics page for several weeks now, and the graphics have definitely been lighting up as the weeks have gone by. Granted, most of this stuff is noise since it's out past 10 days, but the noise is high amplitude and increasing. It's only a matter of time before bands of noise organize into signal once they get into that 4-8 day time frame.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

well aside from a few miscellaneous days off here and there that I might request off from work...i wont see much chase action this season.

new job is keeping me from that and next year i have to have some surgeries that will require extensive down time. blah. another 2-3 years before I can chase.

 

[Derek Weston]

I agree that it's much tougher to see tornadoes in March and the first half of April, compared with the middle to latter part of the season. I also agree that the average quality of a given chase day is higher in the late season, by a good margin. With that said, I still like to get some structure and lightning opportunities in March and April, especially if they're nearby. I think for many of us who live in the Alley, chase season is an experience in itself, and shortening it into a small window takes some of the fun out. I know I felt that way last year; despite May 15-31 packing enough of a punch to constitute a decent season by itself, it wasn't quite enough to erase the depression of nothing happening for the first 2.5 months of meteorological spring.

The high-end setups can wait for several more weeks (at least), but some convective appetizers would go a long way in relieving SDS. Not to mention, they would at least be associated with much-needed rainfall, to the benefit of the prime season. There's honestly no upside to the current pattern, from my perspective.

Exactly. I've made the best out of the past few years, but it's no fun waiting around most of the spring with nothing interesting going on. I like all kinds of storms.

 

[Paul Knightley]

There are some hints on the ECMWF ensembles, and also its monthly output that towards the end of week 2 and into into weeks 3 and 4 western troughing might be more likely...the ECMWF control run of the ensembles shows quite a powerful system after day 10, but that's about as much use as any other single run!

Being locked into a set 'pattern' for weeks on end is something we've had here in the UK too, in recent years. It may well be the signal from a weakening jet stream, coincident with continued warming of the planet, especially the high latitudes. However, I don't want this speculation to drive this thread into an argument about a warming climate!

 

[Logan Karsten]

I know it's fun to look at long-term models for potential setups across the plains. However, looking at the long-range patterns I keep seeing in model run after model shows that we just aren't going to have any good setups any time soon. The long-range 00Z models last night all indicate a continued large scale trough across the eastern half of the US, leading to cold air pouring out of Canada. Obviously at some point the warm sun will win this battle, but for the time being, I would plan on the last half of March, potentially even the first half of April being pretty lame. I was hoping the first half of this spring wouldn't be like last year, but this unrelenting cold pattern just doesn't want to give up.

 

[Adam Lucio]

The GFS keeps trying to pop up a system near the end of the month. I think its suffering from some climatology issues. Looking at the way the system comes together, it just looks weird to me. I have lower than average confidence in it actually materializing into something, but I wouldnt mind being wrong.

I like early season setups. My budget is pretty constant all year (actually, the beginning its worse because my job is seasonal so I don't work over winter which means Im at my poorest in Feb/March.) These days the roads are so crowded, that early off season setups provide some rare opportunities to snag a unique prize to call my own. Hard to get that kind of solitude and satisfaction once the hoards invade during May.

 

[chrisbray]

Hey look, the winter setup is back! Rex block! how exciting...

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Seriously? Last spring was like this too, although at least the bulk of the winter was not as brutally cold. About ready to start standing on my porch shaking my fist and hurling invective at the sky.

 

[Jeff Duda]

GFS and FIM in general agreement that we're in store for probably at least one more depressing week of cold late winter weather. Some talk floating around about record cold anomalies across the NE US later this week with -10 C and colder 850 mb temps forecast to set in. Past that (mid-next week), looks like a warming trend may begin such that the Midwest and Great Lakes aren't seeing nearly daily FROPAs with temps plunging back towards 0 F. Don't see any obviously springlike severe setups for the next 8-10 days, though.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Maybe the CPC is getting as much SDS as we are, but it is encouraging that they mention the pattern change possibility exists on three ensembles.

...THE 0Z GFS, 0Z ECMWF, AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURE A PATTERN CHANGE AT THE BEGINNING OF APRIL. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN U.S....

 

[Warren Faidley]

The GFS has been rather consistent with bringing in a major system around April 3rd.

W.

 

[snowdog]

yeaugh many of you chasers may be a little disappointed. A cold spring is in store, according to multiple sources, at least thru mid April. This will certainly have a potential of limiting severe weather. I will give you guys 2 options: Either you may work out in the gym OR you can cut some firewood for the upcoming cold week ahead. Don't look for tornadoes - they may be difficult to find ATTM. Another option for you guys is to find another hobby this spring instead of sitting around model hugging and waiting for something to happen.
Health warning:
Waiting for severe weather next week may cause suicidal tendencies to develop among certain obsessed severe wx lovers. No smoking, save your energy, do not pull your hair out or smash your head against the wall and work out to stay healthy. These tactics should help all of you reduce your depressive state of mind.

 

[Rob H]

Waiting for severe weather next week may cause suicidal tendencies to develop among certain obsessed severe wx lovers. No smoking, save your energy, do not pull your hair out or smash your head against the wall and work out to stay healthy. These tactics should help all of you reduce your depressive state of mind.

Mental health is a serious issue, and several notable chasers have struggled with it, and taken their own lives as a result. You shouldn't make light of it.

 

[Shane Adams]

While I appreciate Rob's thoughtful and true reply, I'm at the point now where I don't care if it's just another troll (a$$hole, in the real world)...I'll have a go.

You picked a storm chasing forum to come into and not only spam your meaningless jibber, but now you're actively sticking your nose into threads (anonymously, of course) and being a complete jerkoff. I don't understand the point, unless you're sitting there laughing because you're trolling (being an a$$hole) and I've "fallen for it." In such case, congratulations I guess?

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Can we just take the 06Z run of the GFS and bottle it so that it's guaranteed to happen? 276 hours on looks almost Utopian. System starts to take shape on the 1st, starts pulling up the serious moisture by the 2nd, makes some eastward progress by the 3rd, and when it finally does eject and FROPA happens, it doesn't scour the Gulf and the moisture keeps building south of the front. What a tease!

Edit: Scratch that, can we instead bottle last night's 0Z run valid for 4/5 through 4/7?