A thought on El Nino and Florida Tornadoes

[Tim Paitz]

Before I go any further, I know there have only been a handful of El Nino events since the start of reliable record-keeping. Also, I know causation doesn't equal correlation. Like snowflakes, no two weather patterns are the same.

However, it's interesting to note that the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Nino events were very strong ones and both produced tornadoes in central and southern Florida due to a stronger jet stream aloft over those areas at the time.

There was one small outbreak on March 17th, 1983 that produced a 53 mile long tornado (though that's up in the air due to the rather remote area of the everglades, it could've been a tornado family).

Then there was the outbreak on February 22nd, 1998. 3 F3s with 42 fatalities, one of the deadliest outbreaks in florida history and are among the strongest in Florida. Like in 1983, there was a strong jet stream aloft ahead of a cold front.

The same goes for Feburary 2nd, 2007. However, those storms weren't as discrete as 1998 but I remember there being constant lightning with those storms. 2006-2007 was also an El Nino year.

However, I'm not jumping to conclusions as to whether or not anything will happen later this winter, but it's something worth noting in that the jet stream usually dips considerably farther south during El Nino years, especially in stronger ones. Not always, but it usually happens.

 

[rdale]

Here's a good resource on El Nino and Florida tornadoes. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=enso_florida_severe

 

[Jeff Duda]

Have you been watching recent GFS forecasts, Tim? Today's 12Z run in particular shows a series of vigorous troughs passing across the southeast, including putting surface lows across FL with some pretty impressive wind fields. Thermodynamics aren't great (for Florida, that's saying something). But I'm sure forecasters in Florida are keeping an eye on what appears to be coming down the pike.

 

[Tim Paitz]

Here's a good resource on El Nino and Florida tornadoes. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=enso_florida_severe

Interesting stuff. Good timing too because as Jeff said, there will be a few vigorous troughs moving across the gulf coast region according to the GFS.

 

[Tim Paitz]

Have you been watching recent GFS forecasts, Tim? Today's 12Z run in particular shows a series of vigorous troughs passing across the southeast, including putting surface lows across FL with some pretty impressive wind fields. Thermodynamics aren't great (for Florida, that's saying something). But I'm sure forecasters in Florida are keeping an eye on what appears to be coming down the pike.

As a matter of fact Jeff, there's going to be one moving across the Gulf Coast very early on sunday but it's not going to deepen until after it enters the atlantic (it's shown as crossing northern Florida as a 1001-1003 mb low). However, like you said, the thermodynamics aren't that impressive (almost no instability, dewpoints aren't that high, little to no lift). However, the wind profiles do indeed look pretty good in northern Florida. They're so-so as you get into central Florida.


I remember the 2007 outbreak being a nighttime one, the '98 one was as well. What I just looked at was the 12Z run valid for 06 UTC on the 17th so we'll see.

 

[Tim Paitz]

Have you been watching recent GFS forecasts, Tim? Today's 12Z run in particular shows a series of vigorous troughs passing across the southeast, including putting surface lows across FL with some pretty impressive wind fields. Thermodynamics aren't great (for Florida, that's saying something). But I'm sure forecasters in Florida are keeping an eye on what appears to be coming down the pike.

Now that low is a little deeper and it's now forecast to be a little farther north in central Georgia.