Joel Wright
EF5
Wow, this thread is surprisingly quiet. Jeanie is now forecast to hit Florida head on as a major hurricane. Unfortunately this one looks to be a big one again... 
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- Weather and Chasing
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9/14/04 FCST: Jeanne (Atlantic)
- Thread starter Tony Laubach
- Start date
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Wow, this thread is surprisingly quiet. Jeanie is now forecast to hit Florida head on as a major hurricane. Unfortunately this one looks to be a big one again...
I'd comment more if the average 5-day forecast error for Jeanne wasn't like 500 miles... The models and official forecasts have been absolutely horrible. Remember when it was originall supposed to be on the east coast of FL? Then moved north, and every model had it moving quickly east into the central Atlantic? Then back south towards the Bahamas? Then back east away from land? Now back towards the US? Yes, it was likely to do with horrible analysis/etc courtesy of the massive data void we call the Atlantic ocean...
MClarkson
EF5
seems to be entraining some dry air which is disrupting the northern eyewall at the moment.
pressure has continued to drop though, down to 964mb.
MClarkson
EF5
pressure now at 962mb with fl winds reported at 110 knots a few hours ago.David Wolfson
EF5
The sat pics after coming out of the eclipse show nasty intensification. Looking toward Cat 3++ for sure IMO. Monster convection 3/4 wrapped around a circular eye starting to blow up off the high-heat content waters near the Bahamas. TWC is still showing the 3 hr. old pics as of the Tropical Update at 7:50Z. They'll have a cow when they see the new ones.
Joel Wright
EF5
Yeah I notice this too. Although this could only be a temporary flare up, we'll have to wait and see. The northeast quad looks pretty bad right now actually. And the eye is still ragged. I will have to say it does look to be strengthening overall though. It is moving into warmer waters. To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being the strongest hurricane to make landfall this year. It seems like the quick surprise hurricanes are always the big ones, and yet the long track notorious news making hurricanes like Ivan (Floyd, many others) always seem to weaken right before landfall..David Schuttler
EF5
Upgraded to Cat 3 115 mphAnonymous
Where's all the forcasting? Everyone and their dog was on here for Ivan... and now? This is going to be the big one that sneaks up!
Bob Schafer
EF5
On 1445z enhanced IR, Jeanne's eye is quite ragged, and while S quad convection is impressive (very), NW is lame.
1525z: eye is more symmetric
Lots of dry air surrounding Jeanne to be entrained and squelch convection; check your WV imagery.
No shear next 24 hours that I see.
Side note: I looked at SST's dated today......
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US...IS.glbl_sst.gif
Interesting circle of cooler SST's right under Jeanne.
No prediction from me. Just obs.
Gabe Garfield
EF5
The Dvorak numbers are very high with this storm. At this time, the only fly in the ointment is the ill-defined eye. If Jeanne can develop a more symmetrical eye, Category 4 seems likely. Outflow is excellent in the western semicircle, and SSTs are very warm. In all likelihood, Jeanne will be the third major US hurricane landfall of the 2004 season.
GabeCarrie Halliday
EF5
Agreed! Pages of Ivan 'casting but now, nada.
Everyone burned out on hurricanes or on vacation?David Wolfson
EF5
Dunno about anyone else, but I'm just mesmerized. Somehow it doesn't seem as much fun this time around knowing that this could be the worst one of all this year. It's really big and working on Cat 4, so a few miles this way or that doesn't make a huge difference.
I have a bad feeling about the Kennedy Space Center. Frances ripped them pretty badly, and Jeanne is bigger and starting to come a bit further north. :cry:mikegeukes
EF5
NWS Melbourne Office has some GRAPHICS concerning Hurricane Jeanne
which includes the following: Combined Tropical Cyclone Hazard,
Local Wind, Local Surge, Local Marine, Local Flood, Local Tornado.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/ghls/hls_main.html
Map of the Anchor Points that is used in Hurrccane and Tropical
Storm products from the Hurricane Center can be found below:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/ghls/ghls_points.html
The Florida Hurricane Surge Atlas
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/atlas.html
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