9/14/04 FCST: Jeanne (Atlantic)

Tropical Storm Jeanne is the latest named storm to form in an already active Atlantic Hurricane season. This storm will pale in comparison to its earlier relatives, however, Jeanne is expected to strengthen into a minor Hurricane. Current forecasts run Jeanne along the southeast coast, probably posing more of a threat to the Carolinas rather than Florida, however that remains days out. This storm may turn completely away from the US Coast as well; guess we'll start to see in the days to come.
 
Anyone here know what that huuuuge blob of convection is just east of the hurricane? It's actually larger than the 'cane, with cooler tops.
 
Could that be another tropical wave behind Jeanne or is it a part of the storm itslef, because Jeanne is not organized?
 
As of 2pm EDT, Jeanne is now a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Pressure is down to 989 mb and continues to move due west @ 7 mph. The GFDL, ECMWF, and FSU SuperEnsemble models indicate that this system will take more of a westerly track towards the Florida coastline and that is what I personally am going to go with. The storms this year seem to take the westerly side of the NHC track this season.
 
The key to the future track of Jeanne is what happens to the remnants of Ivan. Ivan will stall and then begin retrograding sometime this weekend...how far it retrogrades will determine whether Jeanne moves more to the north or more to the west. The further west Ivan goes, the more to the left the track of Jeanne will be. Could we see a taste of Ivan even here in OK by Tue-Wed of next week? Maybe if you believe the ECMWF and GFS...
 
Originally posted by Amos Magliocco
Don't look now, but the GFDL parks Jeanne in Miami Harbor in 120 hours as a Cat 2. Amazing.

Time for another "Where will it hit?" contest, Tim!
No book givaway required. :)

-Greg
 
Just looked at the Water Vapor loop (1500 CDT) and the visible loop. Jeanne appeared to take a jog to the south. Also, the high mountain ridge that separates Haiti and the Domincan Republic could slow her down. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if she fizzled.
 
I just saw the latest satellite loop on Jeanne. Is it just me or is Jeanne's center slowly drfiting southeast toward Karl? Convection has intensifed on the east side of the system, which could be causing the drift.
 
Right now Jeanne's heading south (!) and is then expected to turn westward . . . sounds a lot like the path Betsy took in 1965, and she went over Miami — but of course she was stronger than Jeanne is now. If it does hit FL (just their luck), it probably won't mae it out into the gulf as a hurricane or even that strong a tropical storm, assuming it keeps up the westward trend if/when it does.
 
Wow, this thread is surprisingly quiet. Jeanie is now forecast to hit Florida head on as a major hurricane. Unfortunately this one looks to be a big one again... :(
 
Wow, this thread is surprisingly quiet. Jeanie is now forecast to hit Florida head on as a major hurricane. Unfortunately this one looks to be a big one again... :(

I'd comment more if the average 5-day forecast error for Jeanne wasn't like 500 miles... The models and official forecasts have been absolutely horrible. Remember when it was originall supposed to be on the east coast of FL? Then moved north, and every model had it moving quickly east into the central Atlantic? Then back south towards the Bahamas? Then back east away from land? Now back towards the US? Yes, it was likely to do with horrible analysis/etc courtesy of the massive data void we call the Atlantic ocean...
 
seems to be entraining some dry air which is disrupting the northern eyewall at the moment.

pressure has continued to drop though, down to 964mb.
 
The sat pics after coming out of the eclipse show nasty intensification. Looking toward Cat 3++ for sure IMO. Monster convection 3/4 wrapped around a circular eye starting to blow up off the high-heat content waters near the Bahamas. TWC is still showing the 3 hr. old pics as of the Tropical Update at 7:50Z. They'll have a cow when they see the new ones.
 
Yeah I notice this too. Although this could only be a temporary flare up, we'll have to wait and see. The northeast quad looks pretty bad right now actually. And the eye is still ragged. I will have to say it does look to be strengthening overall though. It is moving into warmer waters. To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being the strongest hurricane to make landfall this year. It seems like the quick surprise hurricanes are always the big ones, and yet the long track notorious news making hurricanes like Ivan (Floyd, many others) always seem to weaken right before landfall..
 
Where's all the forcasting? Everyone and their dog was on here for Ivan... and now? This is going to be the big one that sneaks up!
 
On 1445z enhanced IR, Jeanne's eye is quite ragged, and while S quad convection is impressive (very), NW is lame.

1525z: eye is more symmetric

Lots of dry air surrounding Jeanne to be entrained and squelch convection; check your WV imagery.

No shear next 24 hours that I see.

Side note: I looked at SST's dated today......

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US...IS.glbl_sst.gif

Interesting circle of cooler SST's right under Jeanne.

No prediction from me. Just obs.
 
The Dvorak numbers are very high with this storm. At this time, the only fly in the ointment is the ill-defined eye. If Jeanne can develop a more symmetrical eye, Category 4 seems likely. Outflow is excellent in the western semicircle, and SSTs are very warm. In all likelihood, Jeanne will be the third major US hurricane landfall of the 2004 season.

Gabe
 
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