9/14/04 FCST: Jeanne (Atlantic)

[Tony Laubach]

Tropical Storm Jeanne is the latest named storm to form in an already active Atlantic Hurricane season. This storm will pale in comparison to its earlier relatives, however, Jeanne is expected to strengthen into a minor Hurricane. Current forecasts run Jeanne along the southeast coast, probably posing more of a threat to the Carolinas rather than Florida, however that remains days out. This storm may turn completely away from the US Coast as well; guess we'll start to see in the days to come.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Don't look now, but the GFDL parks Jeanne in Miami Harbor in 120 hours as a Cat 2. Amazing.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Anyone here know what that huuuuge blob of convection is just east of the hurricane? It's actually larger than the 'cane, with cooler tops.

 

[David Draun]

Could that be another tropical wave behind Jeanne or is it a part of the storm itslef, because Jeanne is not organized?

 

[Brett Adair]

As of 2pm EDT, Jeanne is now a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Pressure is down to 989 mb and continues to move due west @ 7 mph. The GFDL, ECMWF, and FSU SuperEnsemble models indicate that this system will take more of a westerly track towards the Florida coastline and that is what I personally am going to go with. The storms this year seem to take the westerly side of the NHC track this season.

 

[Mark Plate]

The key to the future track of Jeanne is what happens to the remnants of Ivan. Ivan will stall and then begin retrograding sometime this weekend...how far it retrogrades will determine whether Jeanne moves more to the north or more to the west. The further west Ivan goes, the more to the left the track of Jeanne will be. Could we see a taste of Ivan even here in OK by Tue-Wed of next week? Maybe if you believe the ECMWF and GFS...

 

[Greg Campbell]

Originally posted by Amos Magliocco
Don't look now, but the GFDL parks Jeanne in Miami Harbor in 120 hours as a Cat 2. Amazing.

Time for another "Where will it hit?" contest, Tim!
No book givaway required.

-Greg

 

[B Ozanne]

Time for another \"Where will it hit?\" contest, Tim!
No book givaway required.

Let's wait to see if this thing survives going over Hispaniola.

 

[MClarkson]

the models look completely divergent after 48-72 hours. Who knows where this thing is going to go.

 

[Doug Lee]

Just looked at the Water Vapor loop (1500 CDT) and the visible loop. Jeanne appeared to take a jog to the south. Also, the high mountain ridge that separates Haiti and the Domincan Republic could slow her down. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if she fizzled.

 

[MClarkson]

IR and visible presentation looks terrible and NHC has downgraded the storm to a depression...

 

[David Draun]

I just saw the latest satellite loop on Jeanne. Is it just me or is Jeanne's center slowly drfiting southeast toward Karl? Convection has intensifed on the east side of the system, which could be causing the drift.

 

[B Ozanne]

For those of you who are into the prefferred hurricane models, where does Jeanne go in the 5-10 day period?

 

[Thomas Loades]

Right now Jeanne's heading south (!) and is then expected to turn westward . . . sounds a lot like the path Betsy took in 1965, and she went over Miami — but of course she was stronger than Jeanne is now. If it does hit FL (just their luck), it probably won't mae it out into the gulf as a hurricane or even that strong a tropical storm, assuming it keeps up the westward trend if/when it does.

 

[MClarkson]

looks like the models are shifting the forecast track significantly westward...