5/2/2006 NOW: NE/KS/OK/TX/SD/MN

[Mikey Gribble]

Profiler data from Vici OK. is not impressive. There is a noteable gap between the low and mid level winds being shown on the mesoscale analysis page and what the profiler is showing.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Tornado Warning now for isolated storm in Northern Mitchell County, Texas. Looks like a massive ol' HP on radar with a nice inflow notch and hook right over I-20! Had some DBz of 70+ in a couple scans, including a 75DBz near the interstate at 450pm CDT.

EDIT: Storm looks like its turned right a bit on the last couple scans.. a pretty decent turn to the south. Moving more east and south now.

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Gray county storm in Texas is now tornado warned!
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Spotters reporting a wall cloud east of Lefors. Doesn't really mesh with what's on radar... but OK. It could be associated with the new storm that went up in the eastern part of the county, I suppose. The original storm DID appear to wrap up briefly, but has since drifted into the remnant mess of the Donley County storm.

Mitchell County storm looks interesting... I wonder if anyone's down there?

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Tornado Warning now for isolated storm in Northern Mitchell County, Texas. Looks like a massive ol' HP on radar with a nice inflow notch and hook right over I-20! Had some DBz of 70+ in a couple scans, including a 75DBz near the interstate at 450pm CDT.
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Yeah, it has spiked out our multi-radar hail algs on WDSSII (which means ==> hail 3.5"+)...however, I wouldn't want to be in Colorado City in the next 20 min as the algorithms tend to show the elevated hail core and the hail needs some time to fall.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Looks like the Mitchell County storm is trying to take on a much better radar signature. Hook becoming a bit more pronounced and the storm size doesn't quite have the massive blog look to it as per 15 minutes ago. No air to screw this on up as the inflow into this storm is clean. Tds in the lower 60s down there, though... temps as high as 90 may mean bases are rather low. Good SE flow in the area, though.

 

[Jim Bishop]

How is there not a tornado warning for that cell over Southwest Hall county near Turkey, Texas?? It's had persistent strong rotation for 3 radar scans. It has stronger rotation than the tornado warned cell to the north.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Spotters reporting a tornado 5 miles west of Colorado City and moving directly at the town. Moving at 15mph puts it in CO City in about 20/25 minutes.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Very detailed 0.5 deg radar mosaic at 2215Z (5:05 pm) that I constructed to be used as a sample image for Digital Atmosphere. However it's useful now and will be there for anyone returning from a chase. Contains meso and TDA overlay.



Click on it to get the large 3000 x 1600 px version (1.3 MB)

Tim

 

[Sam Sagnella]

shortly after Tim's radar grab, the southern-most supercell had two spotter reported tornadoes on the ground in the Colorado City area; no word on damage.

 

[nickgrillo]

I'd do anything if I could be on that tornadic supercell just southeast of Colorado City. The storm has been showing wicked low-level rotation (with > 100 kt gate-to-gate shear in the lowest SRV tilt) for a while now and several tornadoes have already been reported -- with the SVR statement indicating that spotters report multiple tornadoes on the ground (which was about 20-30 mins ago now). SPC mesoanalysis shows > 3000 j/kg sbCAPE invof the supercell -- with about ~ 100 m2/s2 0-1km SRH likely being ingested by the storm. Plenty of strongly backed flow ahead of the dryline to keep the tornadic potential around with these storms for a while (with low-level shear increasing as the LLJ cranks up later in the evening). The storm has been going strong for a while now, and is moving incredibley slow (e.g. 10mph). Another nice potentially tornadic storm is meandering southeastward just west of Childress (likely packing some golfball-sized hail as well).

 

[Edward Ballou]

couldn't get down there fast enough...sitting just south of SIoux Falls watching everything race away...pondering my next move

edit: decided to head back to BKX and try luck at cell there...appears to be back-building atm, hopefully there's enough time to catch it....gotta love a local chase

 

[Gabe Garfield]

23Z SPC Mesoanalysis shows a much more potent set of atmospheric conditions than was progged by the models earlier today. Instability continues to be in the strong to extreme category (MLCAPE ranging from 2500 to 4000 j/kg). Aso, unsure if this erroneous or not, but 850 mb flow peaks near CDS at 45 kts! This yields tremendous 0-3 km SRH from Quanah to SW oF CDS. Should this actually be accurate, I would imagine an enhanced threat of tornadoes would exist toward sundown w/ any isolated storm that can form in this region. Still, I'm skeptical of SRH that high simply because I would imagine there would be more supercell structures if the ll shear was that strong.

Gabe

 

[Sam Sagnella]

First tornado of the day for South Dakota (and a spotter-indicated one at that!) in Kingsbury County.

EDIT: Per the latest SVS, the tornado is still on the ground ~10 minutes later, and has destroyed a pole barn south of Erwin.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

An isolated storm has exploded in King Co., TX. The refl. gradient is very tight on radar, and it has high refl. even on Tilt 4. Likely a big hail producer, and will have at least a decent shot at producing a T, as it encounters higher boundary layer moisture to the east.

Gabe

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Well, I go out for one hour and come back to find the muscular storms have crapped out. Obviously it's hit some of the stabilized air from this morning's Wichita Falls area convection, but I had no idea it would just deteriorate into the mess we have now.

Tim