2/10/09 NOW: TX/OK/AR/MO/KS

[GeorgeOliverGuest]

The Norman NWS office is indicating that the Nocona storm, which is now crossing the Red River, has already produced a tornado.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Watching Bowie, TX as the next horse. Last gasp for the Nocona storm will be the right-turn split as Mr. Farnik said; the line's closing in on it and scrambling its brains just a hair from what my novice eyes can tell on the GRL3.

EDIT: I indeed stand corrected; the N Montague cell is in a good footrace ahead of that line and is maintaining a "safe distance" and decent speed/dir vector in relation to the main line. Ardmore may come under threat.

 

[Jeff Richardson]

Some of the radar estimates on storm total rainfall amounts are pretty impressive, especially over portions of central OK where several supercells trained. Highest estimate I saw was 5.5". The cell moving into SC OK from TX still looks impressive, and the OUN office just issued a tornado warning for it. Looks like Wilson, Lone Grove, and Ardmore could be under the gun soon. There's another cell moving into Montague Co TX that might bear watching. The whole linear mess is taking shape and moving eastward faster than I anticipated. Then again, who knows what the rest of the evening will bring?

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Cell now TORwarned with the warning reach dead-centered on Ardmore OK, but ATTM extended just outside of the city limits there. TOR wording has the storm just TCAP right now, but with its history and the mad shear there, it's likely to cause some sweat for Ardmore for sure.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Former mess around Jacksboro appears to be getting a semblance of an act together structurally speaking; the storm in SW Montague incoming to Bowie is growing and holding together, but seems to have ground its gears a bit and may have slowed down enough to get gobbled. Still, I would not be surprised to see Bowie go under TOR in a quarter hour or so. Those two cells might merge, and as they are away from the trailing portion of the squall proper, might turn briefly into a sleeper hit mini-monster if the yard trash west of the Metroplex and just south of it don't steal too much of its thunder.

EDIT: Good looking couplet SW of Bowie now, as of 7:10 Central.

 

[Mark Farnik]

The northernmost cell in Carter Co. OK has undergone a complete right split and is currently looking a little ragged on base reflectivity - however there is a couplet, albeit not all that strong, persisting on the right split, which is setting up to hit Ardmore dead on in about a half an hour. If the right split can reorganize/reintensify in the next half hour, Ardmore very well be under the gun in a not so good way.

Also of note is that the cell now over Bowie, TX has suddenly gotten it's act together and is spinning up a decent couplet, but just as this has occurred, the squall line has suddenly sagged southeast and is literally nipping on the heels of the cell, so I would venture to guess it has maybe half an hour to produce something before the squall line completely gobbles it up.

Edit 2: On the other hand, the Bowie cell might stay just far enough ahead of the squall line to maintain tornadic productivity. Also suspecting a cell merger with the storm immediately to it's southwest in extreme northeastern Jack Co. may be imminent.

Edit: The right split of the Carter Co. OK storm is rapidly reintensifying - latest reflectivity has upticked to 65 dbz and the couplet is starting to become more pronounced in appearance/intensity once again. It's not looking too rosy for western portions of Ardmore attm.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Bowie TX area = TOR. Area just north of Jacksboro has a chance (albeit a bit of a snowball's chance) of getting together; it's fish-hooking, as well. Impressive for that particular section given its initial linearity.

Comanche, TX's leading-edge storm might also bear a quick checkup or two in the next half hour, dunno if it will stick ahead of the line down there, either, but it could pose a threat for the far SW portion of the Plex if it keeps winning the footrace.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Any chance the gust front from the squall going to have a play on whether the storm near ardmore starts to track more east towards the city? It doesnt seem like the outflow is close enough to undercut the storm, maybe some expert interpitation of whats going on?

Bowie TX area = TOR. Area just north of Jacksboro has a chance (albeit a bit of a snowball's chance) of getting together; it's fish-hooking, as well. Impressive for that particular section given its initial linearity.

Darrin, 4/5/07 I remember a cell that was linear in nature that had 2 large tornadoes on the ground at the same time all apart of that massive line.

EDIT: Well Ardmore is in trouble. Storm has turned more in an east direction and rotation is still very strong on radar. Looks like the gusfront is pushing this storm now.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Any chance the gust front from the squall going to have a play on whether the storm near ardmore starts to track more east towards the city? It doesnt seem like the outflow is close enough to undercut the storm, maybe some expert interpitation of whats going on?

Still a newbie sophomore to this, but IMO that's much more likely over the next few minutes for Bowie/Montague's storm; Ardmore's is still spaced away from the garbage a bit more nicely even though the SRV's show roughly the same quality couplet. Both are so tight I'd be a bit shocked if neither of them recently produced even a brief tube.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Wowza - the Carter Co. cell has developed a fairly pronounced hook in the last two scans, and also seems to be deviating slightly east of northeast. Looking at the storm track, I would hazard a guess that the couplet is going to track over the northwestern portions of Ardmore in about 10 to 15 minutes.

Jordan, I'm not sure exactly how the gust front from the squall is interacting with the cell approaching Ardmore, but it's entirely possible that it might be influencing the slight deviation to the right in the last few radar scans. Interestingly enough, the portion of the squall line immediatley west of the Ardmore storm appears to be falling apart, so maybe it'll release a nice outflow boundary that'll supercharge the Ardmore storm...

 

[GeorgeOliverGuest]

Confirmed tornado on the ground near Lone Grove, OK.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Tornado reported on the ground near Lone Grove, Oklahoma by storm potters at 7:31 p.m. CST, moving directly into the northwest section of Ardmore!

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Large violet tornado on the ground west of Ardmore, OK. Tornado reported on the ground near Lone Grove, Oklahoma by storm potters at 7:31 p.m. CST, moving directly into the northwest section of Ardmore!

 

[GeorgeOliverGuest]

Norman NWS now reporting a large...violent tornado moving through NW Ardmore!!

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Couplet near Ardmore is sickening, and that's from a Fort Worth scan. Montague's TOR appears to have been extended, but I'm not as impressed with the rotation now. That may be the distance playing into it, though, can someone PLEASE erect a radar in Sherman or something so this kind of stuff can be better analyzed and the SE OK/NE TX area can be analyzed in any sense to begin with!?!?

EDIT: Saw the large tornado reports up above this post just now. My heart goes out to Ardmore.