Mark Gressman Jr

May 12, 2022
South Jersey
Sun looks like a tough day to chase with guidance showing convection lining out quickly after initiation, and embedded supercells being the main mode in hard to chase territory. 12z NAM has the right exit region of the jet offering support over EC Oklahoma around 21z with mid 60s DPs, 200 0-1 Helicity, and 2000+ CAPE. Stronger instability and weaker shear are present further south into TX,AR, and LA where a QLCS appears to push through into the middle of the night. The strongest helicity tracks are currently shown crossing into WC Missouri during daylight which is where I'd focus on positions if I could be out there. Should be interesting to see how this plays out in future model runs.
I have been interested in the cold core portion of this event in eastern NE/western IA. That had been looking like a good play, but newer models have lifted the surface low much farther northeast than before. It may still be viable, but the logistics of getting all the way up there after today are questionable. Otherwise, tomorrow in E KS/W MO looks like another case of how much clearing can take place behind the departing MCS.
No good options today unfortunately. Every potential target has issues. First, the MCS has sourced moisture away from the dryline, and moisture is not shown being able to recover much if at all in those areas. Clouds and precip have mostly killed the cold core and open warm sector plays. If I lived in Oklahoma and Kansas, I might be inclined to hang back and hope for some recovery along the dryline and something surprising at the cold front/dryline intersection. But since I live in St. Louis, I'm probably going to do the lazy on-the-way home thing and hope that the HRRR is right about a few transient supercells ahead of the line in central Missouri. The better hope may be for another round of upward lightning in St. Louis later tonight.
Scratch that - holding at Bristow. Clearing happening rapidly now across Oklahoma with low 60s dewpoints in place. Still good upper support overhead through the evening. Not a setup I'd drive to from St. Louis, but I know better than to leave something like this if I'm already here.