2/10/09 NOW: TX/OK/AR/MO/KS

[Tony Laubach]

Here's a glimpse of the 4km WRF radar model run from earlier, frame to show the 5pm CDT hour..

Radar grab from 90 minutes ago...

Timing, overall distance, and orientation a bit different... but daymn... that's pretty good.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Storm in Osage Co is a monster. Heres a link to Ranger 8 out of Tulsa, OK ABC affiliate. Very impressive hook.

http://cfc.ktul.com/outclick.cfm?code=hotspt54&link=http://ktultv-Events.wm.llnwd.net/ktultv_Events

 

[Jason Foster]

Pawnee/Osage focus now.

yes....some nice looking supercells a little bit ago...not so great at the moment...I guess everyone is focused on the Pawnee/Osage county storm. I've switched to KINX radar to look at it better.

Here a link to a few images I saved and put on my blog using GRlevel2analyst.

Edit:
Whoops...forgot link:
http://www.weatherwarrior.net/blog/

 

[Jason Bolt]

It seems to be turning slightly right in the last two scans, putting Bartlesville, Caney, Coffeyville area in the path. 75 from Bartlesville north to Caney is a good road w/ mostly wide open visibility to the west too.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Law enforcement in Pawnee reports that extensive damage was done to a double-wide mobile home about a mile south of Pawnee when the storm ripped through at about 4:38 p.m. A single-wide mobile home was also overturned in the storm. Problem with the storm that produced the edmond tornado is its an hp beast and light is fading. Maybe not so good of an idea to chase that paticular storm? course what I have to say wont stop neone

 

[Mark Farnik]

While the original line of broken supercells has congealed into a training squall line from just southwest of the OKC metro area southwestward to Wichita Falls, a series of new, discrete cells is erupting about 45 miles ahead of the squall line in north central Texas.

The strongest and most well organized of these cells is located in eastern Clay Co., TX between the towns of Henrietta and Bowie and is beginning to develop a couplet as it races northeast toward the town of Nocona, TX. It should pass over or very near Ardmore, OK in about an hour or so.

The second of these cells is in the process of organizing near Jacksboro, TX, about 40 miles south of the first cell. These will bear very close watching as they move across north central TX and eventually cross over into southern OK over the next few hours, as helicities across this area are in excess of 400 m2/s2 and local profilers show very pronounced hodographs which will favor tornadic activity, some possibly strong and long track, as we move into the evening hours.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

These will bear very close watching as they move across north central TX and eventually cross over into southern OK.

Indeed they will, the jet streak is just now rounding the bend and entering the NC TX region. The theata ridge is poking right into the Ardmore area, moderate instability still exist with SBCAPE's of 1500-2000 j/kg. The latest and likely last useful visible satellite indicates a large CU filed ahead of DL and broken line of storms. As the next wave impacts this area and steepens lapse rates, these storms should intensify. As they race NE into an increasingly sheared environment the discrete storms will have the possibility of producing tornadoes, especially once East of 35 and into the core of the LLJ and where outrageous shear values are present, SRH values of around 600m/s. Eventually as the low deepens and begins to move NE across C OK, pulling the DL with it, an intense squall line should form. Given the extreme LL windshear present, seems tornadoes associated with the line segment are a large possiblity, and if not, the downdrafts will likely pack enough of a windy punch. I think the area just E of Ardmore will be most under the gun through late evening.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

I agree with Mark ive had my eye on the cells in NC TX out ahead of the squall and they are looking really good. Also starting to see a couplet developing and its marching right into the good stuff. Another cell has fired about 60 miles to the south of that cell that will need watching as well.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Nice looking storm near the boot capital (former boot capital ... *sniff*) Nocona, but it may have its efforts aborted if the main line progresses continuously more in an easterly direction. If it's gonna tube, it's gotta tube now, because I doubt its true threat will survive long past the Red River before the garbage truck squall picks it up.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Sorry about the old news. That'll learn me to refresh more often.

And as I type this, the Nocona horse just blew TORwarned. I can't remember where the river crossings are out there, but IIRC there aren't any for a county or so from where the storm is progged to truck over.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

well with the latest radar scan this new cell in NC TX is really getting its act together. Impressive developing couplet!!!

EDIT: 630pm CST... last 2 frames that cell has got fat... like a switch got turned on and it just went boom!!! Its in the process of splitting. Right turn maybe?

 

[Andrew Ryan]

That storm that's crossing over the red river right now into OK is really getting its act together. The latest scan had a hail spike on it. Looks like it maybe trying to form a v-notch...not sure.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

That IS a truly impressive couplet. My fingers are crossed that Nocona is still roughly the corresponding size of the dot the GRL3 represents it as.

Unfortunately, I don't even think my previous prediction will even hold; that line is blowing east pretty quickly, so I'll be surprised if it keeps its structure and act for any length beyond the river bend, more or less present a danger for the beginnings of habitation in OK right to the north of it. It's squall food, unfortunately. Those on the storm, fill up your SD card now!

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Watching an interesting structure near Chico right now, as well, but worried whether the broken-line-ish junkheap over Graham will wreck it. I doubt it for its case; the squall line proper is far from it as well, as the squall bend by SPS reaches too far north to sink its talons in like it probably will to the Nocona sibling just to the north.

 

[Mark Farnik]

I wouldn't be remotely surprised if there was currently a tornado on the ground with the cell crossing the Red River from Montague Co., TX into Love County, OK. A strong couplet developed as the cell was passing west of Nocona, TX and is persisting and intensifying as it moves into Oklahoma. If the storm continues along its current path, the potential tornado is rapidly approaching Orr, OK and will pass over Wilson, OK in a half hour or so.

Edit: Appears the storm is attempting a right split attm. If it succeeds, the right split will pass perilously close to the western portions of Ardmore, OK before it gets absorbed by the encroaching squall line. but I think it's pretty much game over for this one. If somebody was lucky enough to have been on this storm when it was between Henrietta and Nocona, they probably bagged a nice tube.

My attention is now shifting southwards, where there are two seperate discrete cells, one entering far southwestern Montague Co. and the other over western Jack Co. Interestingly enough, the southern end of the squall line from Wichita Falls to the south appears to be starting to stall out/weaken, which may give these southern cells a better opportunity than the Nacona cell, which is about to be ingested into a more robust part of the squall line immediately northeast of Wichita Falls.