5/2/2006 FCST: NE/KS/OK/TX/SD/MN

[Angie Norris]

Not real impressive, but definitely possible.
Td's in the 60's in western OK by 18Z, surface winds don't look great, but 500mb winds definitely there to give some shear, CAPE progged to be ~3000J if I read the colors right. My target for the day:Cordell OK.
HOWEVER....physics lab final tonight at 6pm (wouldn't you know it), so once again shot out of the hunt.(I'll just wait for the MCS to come through). Y'all be careful and happy hunting.
Angie

 

[rdale]

12Z NAM will have great upper-air, limited other data sources, 12Z GFS ran with slightly better set of surface.

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: CHILDRESS TIME OF DEPARTURE 11 AM Very marginal chase day today, but I have the day off work. High CAPES, a boundary from last nights convection, and the dryline all will combine today to form severe storms. However, tornado potential is low due to the weak mid-level winds. But at least storms will drift slowly east-southeast force feeding themselves. This "viagra" effect will keep storms healthy well after dark. Wednesday, I have to work in OKC and then go to Blackwell, so that may be a good place to end up too. TM

 

[jladue]

I would keep an eye on increased initiation probabilities south of CDS. Morning convection persists even more and the outflow is only now just beginning to recede from ABI. I'll be at the HAM desk in OUN.

 

[Kevin Walter]

Just helped the TTU West TX Mesonet guys launch a sounding from the old Reese AFB at Lubbock. Data should be up on the website www.mesonet.ttu.edu around 1pm Central. We'll be able to at least see if the mid-level winds are increasing at all. Liking the obs off the caprock, good luck to those who have the day off....

 

[Glen Romine]

Great view of a gravity wave on the sat image loops today - particularly easy to find on the vis image, and this appears to have triggered some (elavated) convective development just northeast of San Angelo. You can see this also on the composite reflectivity animation from San Angelo. Fun stuff.

As for a target, I'm not as taken with Childress - but would want to be southwest of there where the dryline is less SW-NE oriented with veered flow ahead of it. The wind profiler at TCU still shows weak mid-level flow, whereas better flow is evident at WSM - so getting as far south as possible might improve storm organization some - and the peak thermal axis is nosing into better moisture back closer to Garza county it looks like (obviously subject to move over time).

Glen

 

[Scott Olson]

Obviously chasing the northern target. Leaving within the hour- as the data is drawing me a bit south of my curent location. Early morning showers/cloud cover have resulted in good differntial heating and latest RUC forecasts show upwards of 2000 j/kg MLCAPE and 300-400 m2/s2 0-3km SRH E and NE of the low. Im expecting development around 22z. My 2m weather station is currently at 55 Td with 0z NAM forecast for 18z at 51. The early/mid morning showers also brought the temps down a little so the LCL's aren't currently so bad (1200m via mesoanaylsis) and with more moisture coming in I wouldn't expect those to rise anymore.

Good luck to all who are out today!

-Scott.