5/30/06 NOW: OK / KS / TX

Parked in Beaver, OK, with Bill Hark at this time (home of the Dusters: mascot is a beaver in a tornado :)). Mesoanalysis and sfc obs confirm a well delineated low in the TX panhandle (right now we're slightly to the N of this). Complicated areas of Cu field development include along the cold front snaking down from here into the area roughly around Canadian TX; and a secondary Cu field forming over an area of northerly sfc winds in SW KS. Current RUC shows good EHI in this area and visually I am currently surrounded by turkey towers. Very hopeful for today. Current sfc analysis says a lot (see below).

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With the sunshine now making its way out of the resolving MCS to our NE, the area is hot and muggy. Looking for initiation in the next 2 hrs I hope...I think the setup looks terrific for photogenic cells and tornadoes possibly :)
 
Sitting with Gabe and Jana in Arnett OK getting gas (SW of Woodward). The cell to our immediate south is svr-warned and has had hints of rotation from time to time. All signs are pointing us towards Texas co. OK right now, or atleast the extreme ne TX panhandle and the eastern OK panhandle areas. However, moisture out there is garbage right now (note Canadian TX Td of 45!). IF the moisture can get pulled back westward / northwestward, I think we'll be game. Flow aloft and deep-layer shear become very poor south of the northern tier of TX panhandle counties, so we don't want to hedge too far to the south. It's a waiting game I suppose...
 
Sitting with Gabe and Jana in Arnett OK getting gas (SW of Woodward). The cell to our immediate south is svr-warned and has had hints of rotation from time to time. All signs are pointing us towards Texas co. OK right now, or atleast the extreme ne TX panhandle and the eastern OK panhandle areas. However, moisture out there is garbage right now (note Canadian TX Td of 45!). IF the moisture can get pulled back westward / northwestward, I think we'll be game. Flow aloft and deep-layer shear become very poor south of the northern tier of TX panhandle counties, so we don't want to hedge too far to the south. It's a waiting game I suppose...
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You might be better off to keep on going to SE colorado and follow the upslope storms as they move into better moisture. It seems the earlier convection in SW kansas and the anvils from the ongoing convection in the TX panhandle has limited the instability and prevented any storms from firing in the optimally sheared environments of the OK panhandle and SW Kansas. The best setups this year have lacked any substantial capping inversion leading to a convective mess. I'm not giving up complete hope on 2006, but it has definitely been my and many other's slowest chase year here in the Plains.
 
I'm guessing the lack of posting here is either from the quality of the network out in the OK panhandle region, or the disappointment of the convective evolution so far today. Certainly - initiation prospects for surface based storms across the OK panhandle to extreme southwest KS don't look that great, as what clouds are visible on the vis sat show a quite stable air mass in place. What area seemed to be showing some recovery around the Liberal area is now overcast with the expanding anvil streaming in from the outflow crashing convection in the Texas panhandle. Instead, the best show just might be the southward crreeping long-lived cell in Roger Mills Co. in OK, which has sufficiently deviant motion to preserve supercell characteristics. Maybe that cell will do something interesting as another cell merges with it here shortly. Beyond that, cell back in northern Union Co. NM might have some slim hopes of becoming more interesting near sunset as it vectors into the area. Otherwise - tough to find much to get excited about right now.
 
Is any one else on this storm that has been drifting south towards Sayer? It keeps showing signs of wanting to form a wall cloud but can't quite get that extra umph it needs. It keeps eating all the cells that try to form around it. Anyone else out here with us in Beckham county?
 
Storms are forming rapidly in Cimmaron and Texas couties in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Although temperatures have crashed into the low to mid 70s in these areas, shear profiles look pretty good and TD remain in the 60s. Winds are backed pretty good out of the east, right into storms. Also, pretty good cell in Baca County is catching my attention. I'm going to see what happends with these storms over the next hour or so.
 
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