5/2/2006 NOW: NE/KS/OK/TX/SD/MN

Joined
Dec 10, 2003
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711
Location
Great Plains
Personal observations to my west show rapid development of TCu and aggresive turkey towers to my west and can be plainly viewed by visual satellite. The stronger uprafts I have visually comfirmed are extremely crisp, firm and showing alot of strength. Based on personal observation and satellite, expect initiation is imminent in SE South Dakota to NE Nebraska within a short timeframe. SPC also has this area highlighted in an MD.
 
Radar signatures on various cells around the Amarillo site indicate tops breaking above the LFC just over the past few minutes, so convective initiation can probably be declared for the "southern play" also. Good luck to all chasing today!
 
Radar signatures on various cells around the Amarillo site indicate tops breaking above the LFC just over the past few minutes, so convective initiation can probably be declared for the "southern play" also. Good luck to all chasing today!
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Yep, looks like pretty juicy ait over the TX/OK border with spreads not too bad. shouldnt take too long to tap into that...should see something from spc in the next hour or so.
 
Yep, looks like pretty juicy ait over the TX/OK border with spreads not too bad. shouldnt take too long to tap into that...should see something from spc in the next hour or so.
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Eh? There's been a tornado watch out for an hour or so (45 mins I think). The environment is characterized by very strong to extreme CAPE, with mesoanalysis incidating 3500+j/kg mlCAPE from CDS southward. The 18z DFW sounding is trash, but that's probably almost entirely because of the outflow from the convection that was in northern TX earlier today. Quite a few cells developing, but we'll have to wait to see which ones persist. I like the Memphis to Hobart to Vernon to Silverton area myself.
 
SPC just launced out a torn watch for Eastern SD, Southwest MN, Northwest IA, and Northeast NE. Looking out the window, some good towers going up down in the Yankton County area, starting to build N into Turner County. Also a CU field building in Hutchinson Count going up to about Huron. Looking at the numbers, looks like storms may struggle to get going til they get to the I-29 corridor where moisture is more abundant. But, with a weak cap and high LI, high CAPE, low LCL's, and just good all-around energy, looks like the games are about to begin.

EDIT: Looks like the storms firing now are going along the warm front, and they look kind of weak at the moment. There is a boundry just west of this warm front and just east of the cold front that looks liek a lot of CU are starting to build. Looking at the mesoanalysis page, looks like dynamics are much better along the boundry, so looks like Mother Nature is trying to throw a 1-2 punch type system up here.
 
Kinda wondering about these sfc winds in W OK and along the OK/TX Panhandle border. They seem to keep veering and pretty good surface diffulence region has set up. If they don't back, low level shear is going to be in the dumps and these storms are quickly going to gust themselves out as the move to the east. We'll have to wait and see!

Hey Jeff.....how's the studying going??? :p
 
Cool to see on the 10.7 um IR showing the cold pool outflow from the storms in southern OK this morning finally intersecting with the dryline and providing enough vertical lift to initiate storms. Interestingly enough when the cold pool passed through CDS, dewpoints dropped about 2F ... further south the gulf moisture is more in place at SWW after the cold pool is seen to pass through with dewpoints at 68F, then drop 4F after storm initiation to the west.

The little things ... should be interesting to see how things pan out. Chasers probably already out there, so I'll simply pray that everyone will be safe and be okay today.
 
Shower and Thunderstorm activity developing, yet still somewhat struggling, right now in the Northern tornado watch box with radar returns now showing up primarily immediately between Yankton, SD and Vermillion, SD, directly over the state line and points SW. echoes are weak at this point.
 
Shower and Thunderstorm activity developing, yet still somewhat struggling, right now in the Northern tornado watch box with radar returns now showing up primarily immediately between Yankton, SD and Vermillion, SD, directly over the state line and points SW. echoes are weak at this point.
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With what my theory is, the front line that's firing now is going to be kind of weak, i think the line of CU behind it will be what fires off the severe stuff, just seems like the second CU line is closer to the better dynamics...in my opinion.
 
warned cells over Kent and Hall cnties starting to look better organized.
Jeff; i see the watch was issued at 240--not sure why it took over an hour to make it to the website, which is what i was looking at.
 
Severe weather now beginning in the northern box...

Rapid intensification of a cell over Clay County in SE SD has prompted a severe warning primarily for large hail. Motion east at 35...
 
Appears convection is beggining to fire along a line extending from Norfolk NE, South West towards the Lexington NE area. Surface conditions appear to be less then favorable for tornadoes Dew Point in the vicintiy of 50 and Surface winds from the South and some instances SW it appears this region will see this line fill in and quicly bceom a linear mess, with the possibilty of marginally severe hail and gusty winds
 
Outflow boundaries all over the place in the TX Panhandle... the Donley County storm had a nice radar signature for awhile, but its inflow region looks contaminated. Cute little storm moving into SW Gray County as well, but it looks to have the same problem. Ditto for the storm west of Childress. I have a feeling this is going to be an outflow-dominant mess before long.
 
Outflow boundaries all over the place in the TX Panhandle... the Donley County storm had a nice radar signature for awhile, but its inflow region looks contaminated. Cute little storm moving into SW Gray County as well, but it looks to have the same problem. Ditto for the storm west of Childress. I have a feeling this is going to be an outflow-dominant mess before long.
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Gray county storm in Texas is now tornado warned!
 
Profiler data from Vici OK. is not impressive. There is a noteable gap between the low and mid level winds being shown on the mesoscale analysis page and what the profiler is showing.
 
Tornado Warning now for isolated storm in Northern Mitchell County, Texas. Looks like a massive ol' HP on radar with a nice inflow notch and hook right over I-20! Had some DBz of 70+ in a couple scans, including a 75DBz near the interstate at 450pm CDT.

EDIT: Storm looks like its turned right a bit on the last couple scans.. a pretty decent turn to the south. Moving more east and south now.
 
Gray county storm in Texas is now tornado warned!
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Spotters reporting a wall cloud east of Lefors. Doesn't really mesh with what's on radar... but OK. It could be associated with the new storm that went up in the eastern part of the county, I suppose. The original storm DID appear to wrap up briefly, but has since drifted into the remnant mess of the Donley County storm.

Mitchell County storm looks interesting... I wonder if anyone's down there?
 
Tornado Warning now for isolated storm in Northern Mitchell County, Texas. Looks like a massive ol' HP on radar with a nice inflow notch and hook right over I-20! Had some DBz of 70+ in a couple scans, including a 75DBz near the interstate at 450pm CDT.
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Yeah, it has spiked out our multi-radar hail algs on WDSSII (which means ==> hail 3.5"+)...however, I wouldn't want to be in Colorado City in the next 20 min as the algorithms tend to show the elevated hail core and the hail needs some time to fall. :eek:
 
Looks like the Mitchell County storm is trying to take on a much better radar signature. Hook becoming a bit more pronounced and the storm size doesn't quite have the massive blog look to it as per 15 minutes ago. No air to screw this on up as the inflow into this storm is clean. Tds in the lower 60s down there, though... temps as high as 90 may mean bases are rather low. Good SE flow in the area, though.
 
How is there not a tornado warning for that cell over Southwest Hall county near Turkey, Texas?? It's had persistent strong rotation for 3 radar scans. It has stronger rotation than the tornado warned cell to the north.
 
Spotters reporting a tornado 5 miles west of Colorado City and moving directly at the town. Moving at 15mph puts it in CO City in about 20/25 minutes.
 
Very detailed 0.5 deg radar mosaic at 2215Z (5:05 pm) that I constructed to be used as a sample image for Digital Atmosphere. However it's useful now and will be there for anyone returning from a chase. Contains meso and TDA overlay.



Click on it to get the large 3000 x 1600 px version (1.3 MB)

Tim
 
shortly after Tim's radar grab, the southern-most supercell had two spotter reported tornadoes on the ground in the Colorado City area; no word on damage.
 
I'd do anything if I could be on that tornadic supercell just southeast of Colorado City. The storm has been showing wicked low-level rotation (with > 100 kt gate-to-gate shear in the lowest SRV tilt) for a while now and several tornadoes have already been reported -- with the SVR statement indicating that spotters report multiple tornadoes on the ground (which was about 20-30 mins ago now). SPC mesoanalysis shows > 3000 j/kg sbCAPE invof the supercell -- with about ~ 100 m2/s2 0-1km SRH likely being ingested by the storm. Plenty of strongly backed flow ahead of the dryline to keep the tornadic potential around with these storms for a while (with low-level shear increasing as the LLJ cranks up later in the evening). The storm has been going strong for a while now, and is moving incredibley slow (e.g. 10mph). Another nice potentially tornadic storm is meandering southeastward just west of Childress (likely packing some golfball-sized hail as well).
 
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