5/22/07 FCST: TX / OK / KS / NE / SD

[Donald Giuliano]

12Z NAM indeed looking better wrt the moisture situation today. We shall see, as the morning soundings didn't look all that hot north of Corpus Christi. At any rate, still concerned about initiation, but if a storm can get going up near Hays or Coldwater, KS, I'd be all over that. Too conditional to get me to take off work today, though.

 

[Steve Burrows]

Currently on the 183 in southern NE. Current target is Hays, KS. May be a few of us there, waiting for things to happen.
Dew point shouldn't be to much of a worry, currently in the low 60's.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Currently at Garden City, KS, where we stayed overnight. Looking at the WaKeeney - Hays corridor, perhaps just N towards Hill City (although I think the latter may get the CF to soon) - latest RUC breaks out precip here, and my (rather crude) hand analyses of the approx position of the triple point puts this region just NE of it by 21Z. Will be heading off by around midday CDT I would think. Hope to see some of you guys out there!

 

[Justin Rudicel]

First off I would like to say good luck and be safe out there everyone. Currently sitting in my hotel room in Dodge City Kansas. Thinking about staying just west of town until things start to line up by mid afternoon. Looking at the latest RUC and Meso Analysis I don't really feel there is a need to move. As any convection the forms will be within a hour of here this afternoon. Cap looks to be pretty stout however I feel with the latest CAPE values being over 3000 just ahead of the dryline. Convection will likely fire south into the Ok panhandle by 1z.

 

[Paul Knightley]

I'm just wondering whether to hold back a bit - the WRF shows the dry line hanging back a bit - my initial target this morning was Gove, KS...may stay in Garden City a little while longer, just to wait for things to firm up a tad.

 

[Fritz Kruse]

Stout Cap and Crummy T-Td Spreads

I agree with others on the cap strength problem today and up near the triple point around Garden City and Scott City. The WRF does not break out precip until after dark unless you go up north along the cold front, but that stuff may be outflow cold front driven.

The RUC however continues to show the cap breaking by 21z all the way south into OK pan.

I just don't think the next sounding at Dodge at 20z is going to show much difference and what about the temp-dew spreads? 88/62 does not look very good for tornadic potential, and hoping it does not mix out into the upper 50s...yuck!!

 

[Darren Addy]

Once again, the problem is going to be storms remaining discrete in Nebraska. Best chances for supercells should be either close to the low (which is expected to be near the KS/NE border by 21Z). IF there are going to be tornadoes/photogenic supercells in NE they should be out in front of the line of storms firing on the front. While northern KS will see plenty of percip, I think the best chance for tornadoes will come fairly early south of North Platte. If a discrete storm can get started out there ahead of the line it will move into even juicier air as it moves east.

My initial target area would be Red Willow or Frontier County (Curtis - Stockville area) and expect things to move towards the Cozad - Lexington area by dark.

 

[Fritz Kruse]

Cap and T-Td Spreads

Sorry about trying to start a NOW thread, oops, did not know it was for ongoing severe.

Anyway current dewpoints are only in the upper 50s near the triple point just north of Garden City. SPC Meso Anal also shows greater than 1500m LCL's also pushing into that area, so am thinking the tornado potential not all that hot.

Also been watching the short fuse composite loop out of our office DDC, see
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/?n=shortfuse

This shows the CAP should be breaking around the Liberal, KS area? Although I see no cu field yet. The 18z RUC continues to break out a line of storms from near DDC into the Texas pan by 00z. Now am wondering if the WRF prog of no storms will hold and if the cap is stronger than progged. The 20z DDC sounding should be out shortly and maybe tell us a few new things?

 

[Bob Hartig]

Sitting in Hays with my chase partner, Bill Oosterbaan. I'm also watching the dewpoint spread growing. The clear punch coming in from the south seems to be mixing out the moisture. Latest METAR shows a 61 td here, and I read a 55 down in Liberal; low sixties to the south, and then back east under cloud cover. Torn between sitting and waiting right here or heading south toward the border where there seems to be better moisture--though I don't know that we wouldn't meet with the same scenario down there. I guess we just sit for now and hope for the best.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Still in Garden City - expecting to head NE towards Ness City within the next hour or so, but also concerned about the dp spread. Think a narrow tongue of 60s could be pulled towards that area.

 

[David Draun]

Sitting in the Ness City library with Fabian Guerra, Steve Mirsky, and two others. I'm noticing the pop of Cu starting from SW NE to about Garden City, KS

MD 0859 looks to have a Tornado Watch out soon. That dryline is incredibly sharp! 23 degrees Td in the western TX panhandle. Too bad the good dews are mixing out here. Hopefuly some more moisture advecting in from the SE.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Thinking a good chance lies in the area bordered by a Garden City - Scott City - Gove - Ness City line.

Edit - probably towards the northern side of this, as we're looking to remain just NE of the low pressure which is expected to move/develop NE along the almost stationary cold front.

 

[Michael Thompson]

Currently in Hoxie, Kansas, where the local STOP and SHOP gas station has an excellent free WIFI connection, therefore I will sit and wait. Just had significant convergance here with a couple of chase tour vans and 2 to 3 other chaser cars.

Ignoring the science and going with ' feel ' I prefer the area a little more back north, there was a definate transition around the Kansas / Nebraska border - was cool NW winds and drizzle just north of North Platte, switch fron NW to S winds was around the border near McCook. Dewpoints are a concern, I am only getting around 58 -59F,another reason why slightly NE feels better.

 

[David Drummond]

REMINDER:

(4) Forecasts & Nowcasts forum. In the Forecasts & Nowcasts forum, we allow two types of messages, as follows.
* FCST is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that has not occurred yet, from now up to 7 days in the future

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Posting where you are and where your going without anything else, especially some meteorologic thoughts behind why your doing so is not suitable for FCST threads.

I removed a number of these already without infractions, but any more will result in infractions.

 

[David Drummond]

Sorry about trying to start a NOW thread, oops, did not know it was for ongoing severe.

Which is why Tim has stated the reading of the special rules for this area are mandatory reading. Not picking on anyone specifically, but it's clear from some of the posts I have removed that some people need to go read those.

(4) Forecasts & Nowcasts forum. In the Forecasts & Nowcasts forum, we allow two types of messages, as follows.
* FCST is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that has not occurred yet, from now up to 7 days in the future
* NOW is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that is occurring right now or within the last 60 minutes (photos and third-party reports are allowed).