After reading SPC's outlook, Jeff's post, and taking a little closer look at the forecast sounding I am still optimistic about the setup, but I do share their concerns. Jeff or somebody else please comment on what I'm about to say because what I am about to say is more of a question than anything else. The two biggest concerns are t-td spreads and weak midlevel flow, both of which cause issues with outflow undercutting the updraft. Weak midlevel flow does this because of the lack of seperation between the updraft and downdraft and the high t-td spreads do this because of evaporational cooling and stronger downdrafts. My thinking was that this would be offset to some extent by the strong southerly inflow level winds being forecast. I am trying to remember the threshold that was layed out in a paper on RH values in the low levels for tornadoes, but I can't remember it off the top of my head. Maybe somebody else that knows more on this topic could comment on this setup.
