12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Chris Carter]

Seems like most of the NWS stations in Nebraska want to believe in the GFS solution despite its run to run inconsistency with the strength, track, and timing of this storm. But they don't want to believe in the Euro and GEM either because its the worst case scenario. Seems like they want to paint a hybrid of all the models with a chance to go either way.

If i had to pick a model that could get this right, it would be the Canadian, as it has handle most of the winter storms this year fairly well(Just as Joel said in a eariler post), despite the GFS. Even the GFS ensembles are on board with the Canadian.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

Topeka is running with a possible ice scenario.

I think the biggest factor in this whole storm will be the amount of people on the road. It will not take much ice at all or even light snow to turn this into a very deadly Christmas

 

[Chris Heater]

Per what I have read on ILX's discussion and weather story, my area could see an ice storm out of this. I like snowstorms...but not ice storms, and especially on Christmas eve. It will be interesting if the computer models shift the storm south or north...as it could be a deciding factor if we either have mostly rain, an ice storm, or a snowstorm

 

[Jerry Prsha]

It looks like LSX is in for some heavy rain and thunder with snow for dessert on Thursday evening. Temps are just going to be too warm with the low level jet doing it's thing.

Darn.. I really wanted that elusive Christmas Snowstorm!

 

[Dean Baron]

The Euro has a more south/east track now. This morning it had the low pass over La Crosse, WI, now it has it move along the WI/IL border. GFS has more northern track and finally shows some precip well in to MN. For now, I'll call the Euro an anomoly considering the odd and erratic path it shows the low take across KS/IA/WI/IL on its latest run. If the new Euro continues to show a more south/east track then I'll stop expecting more than a dusting of snow.

 

[rdale]

12Z Euro still continues the west track.

 

[Dean Baron]

This is what I was talking about. This is the track this morning's Euro had for the low:

And this is this afternoon's:

 

[rdale]

Note that your second map is 12 hours later so you can't make a direct comparison - and at that point the low is shearing out as the Euro quickly moves the system off to the northeast. It'd be nice if the high-res version was publicly available!

 

[Chris Carter]

Note that your second map is 12 hours later so you can't make a direct comparison - and at that point the low is shearing out as the Euro quickly moves the system off to the northeast. It'd be nice if the high-res version was publicly available!

True, it shows that Euro is continuing to slow the system down.

 

[mark plate]

That map of the Euro clearly shows a severely occluded system by 12Z Saturday, with the sfc low back in the Midwest, and the 850 mb cold front already nearing the East Coast. Heavy precip rates will mostly be long gone by that time if it verifies with a large area of light-moderate snow left behind. If tha Euro verifies, I'd also expect a massive mid level dryslot to screw some areas out of a bigger snow. My current location just west of Green Bay would be one of those at big risk to get dry-slotted...not to mention seeing a fair amount of rain rather than snow prior to that time.

 

[Darren Addy]

Nebraska forecast discussions seem to feel the trend is towards slowing (more consistent Euro). Goodland forecast discussion is saying 8-12" (with much uncertainty) and it should be worse north and east.

Day 3 QPF: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif
Day 4-5: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e00p48iwbg_fill.gif
& QPF Forecast discussion: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

I'm guestimating around a foot here in Kearney, with bigger totals the farther you go into SE NE. (Similar to last system)

 

[Chris Carter]

Looks to me like this is going to be a temperature critical storm, something that I believe, no model can really predict. You just have to wait to see what happens and realize the next few days are uncertain. (IE, October 24-26, 1997) I remember watching the 6pm news and they were expecting the rain to switch to snow in Omaha about 3-4am in the morning, within two hours it switched to snow and i saw for the first time, flashes of light from thundersnow.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

Crazy huge area of big totals....too big obviously. (I think this thread needs some dramatic music now)

Canadian also shifting west towards ECMWF a smidge.

 

[Joel Wright]

Looking like huge snowstorm potential for MN and western WI. Probably much of NE and about the NW half of IA too. Still looks like a good chance for significant icing from northeast KS, through northwest MO, southern and eastern IA, and into northern IL/southern WI.

Operational GFS is coming around to GEM and Euro style solutions. New GEM is fairly similar to previous runs. Still takes the low up towards southeast IA like it's done for several days now. The storm sure looks to throw lots of warm air northwestward over the shallow cold surface layer, and hence the widespread freezing rain threat.

Chicagoland could be in for a pretty significant ice event before luckily warming enough at the surface to stop the rain from freezing. Still, could be a 12+hr period of freezing rain during the day on Wednesday before warming up enough to stop the freezing.

Looks like Minneapolis could be sitting in the crosshairs of a huge snowstorm with well over a foot a distinct possibility. The storm is apparently going to take it's sweet time moving through the Midwest, and since it's so loaded with GOM moisture heavy QPF looks very likely even in the cold sector.

 

[John Wetter]

Wow, GFS slows it down and brings the path further NW again... MN looks to get smacked. Canadian trending the same. Will be a denser snow than the last big system though.