Mike Hollingshead
12z ECMWF really slowed the sfc low down even more. Sure is pretty damn locked into that track/location though. But man, that is now 6 a.m. Christmas morning here lol.
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12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm
- Thread starter Joel Wright
- Start date
Joe Schaub
Wasn't that 2007? I remember that being in the second week of January because I (selfishly) was worried that the Chili Bowl over in Tulsa wasn't going to be on PPV or even run for that matter.
Dean Baron
Supporter
GFS has pulled the low a bit farther east which is good for us here in the Twin Cities (if you're hoping for snow that is) as the warm air getting wrapped around won't make it as far in to MN, unlike this morning's run which was a bit farther west and the warmer air got pulled farther in to MN. I think the models are still having a really tough time figuring out how much precip will fall, with the GFS and WRF showing pretty weird QPF's. But looks like the models are finally in pretty good agreement with the track. Looking at the WRF it looks like we may get dryslotted for a bit, the H5 RH's fall considerably below 100% for part of the storm, but then again I'm not sure if the RH at 500mb needs to be at 100% or not for snow.
Mark Sefried
EF2
Looks like Mike Hollingshead is going to get another nice dumping, just like the last Midwest blizzard. I can't wait to see your pictures! Just like the last storm I am going to get screwed again and see nuttin major at all except a little freezing rain early Wednesday morning and a dusting of snow on Christmas day...
Chris Carter
EF3
Too early, its the day before the storm begins to impact the middle of the nation.
If there was ever a time for the models to get the track right, now would be the time. 
Jim Saueressig
EF5
I think that one was the big one in Western Kansas wasn't it? That would have been more in Umscheid's territory.
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
As long as temps above the surface are below freezing then we will likely get snow even if surface temps are running in the low to mid 30s. Typically when you have such a temperature profile you end up with very thick wet snow.
Michael O'Keeffe
The 18z NAM is now giving us folks here in E Kansas hope on some very heavy wet snow on the backside of the system Thursday night into Friday morning. pretty awesome timing if you ask me. The 18z NAM projected snowfall totals according to wxcaster.com are showing widespread snowfall amounts of 6-8" across ALL of E KS from Manhattan down to Wichita east to the Missouri border. Then it appears we will see winds in the 25-35MPH range on the backside on Christmas morning. We shall see what the 0z NAM says as it will have a better handle on the system as it is just making its way into the Pacific NW now.
Darren Addy
EF5
Most of the forecast discussions seem to view the NAM as the outlier on this one (at least so far).
Looks like, while there may be some freezing drizzle or rain associated with this system chances of over 1/4" are pretty low on Day 2: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif
On Day 3 the odds go up considerably in northern ILL: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif
Iowa is saying the surface and 500mb low are going to stack.
The five day total QPF looks awfully impressive: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
Looks like, while there may be some freezing drizzle or rain associated with this system chances of over 1/4" are pretty low on Day 2: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif
On Day 3 the odds go up considerably in northern ILL: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif
Iowa is saying the surface and 500mb low are going to stack.
The five day total QPF looks awfully impressive: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
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Chris Carter
EF3
Yea, it seems most forecast dicussion are going with the Euro. As the GFS is too erratic and warmer (looks like the euro is tending towards the warmer solution). The Canadian is not as far west as the gfs and euro.
Darren Addy
EF5
Check out the box-in-the-box "Wed-Fri Snowfall Totals" that Sioux Falls NWS is putting out there: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=fsd
Dustin Wilcox
EF5
NAM (per 18Z) now too trending and coming into better agreement with the rest of the models, Euro has been super consistent for at least 48 hours now, and now everything is trending towards it. Given the forecast combined with the timing, it looks to be an EPIC snowstorm for the center of the country, one that kids today will tell stories about 50 years from now. The NW and WC part of IA look to be the bullseye as of right now, that low slowing down and parking over S IA will just allow the white stuff to pile up! The inversion and precip type issues will make forecasting totals difficult for the "transition region" though in terms of impacts, those with 20" of snow might be better off than those with 6" on top of an inch of ice. I'll be cutting out early Wed to make sure I make it home (closer to the bullseye) for Christmas!
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Mike Hollingshead
Got another image up here of that: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fsd/maps/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.png
Looks like their 20 extends back to near me. Kind of worried about getting rain for some of Wednesday's batch. I guess I keep forgetting you can waste 1.5 inches of liquid as rain and still get over a foot when there's another 2 inches prog'd to be used lol.
Darren Addy
EF5
Saw some discussion of this storm system taking a more northward left hand turn than at first thought. (Been reading too much.) As far as I'm concerned 10-12" is more than I really need, especially if it is wet and heavy. I'm hoping that it doesn't turn left sharper or sooner than it is currently predicted. Iowa and SE Nebraska can have the biggest totals, as far as I'm concerned.
Most recent OAX forecast discussion seems to think better than 1/4" of ice somewhere north of Omaha/Lincoln, preceeding the snow: http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=ne&prodtype=discussion
Most recent OAX forecast discussion seems to think better than 1/4" of ice somewhere north of Omaha/Lincoln, preceeding the snow: http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=ne&prodtype=discussion
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Robert Dewey
EF5
I can no longer read this thread. It's too depressing / disappointing. Two good looking storms, and we get nothing over here in MI lol
My forecast for here is a little mixed rain / snow changing to all rain. Precipitation doesn't really break out until the occlusion approaches, well after an extended period of low level WAA. This should warm SFC temps to above freezing, leading to mostly rain and some snow/sleet mixing in depending on how evaporative cooling plays in. With such a strong high to the northeast, I also suspect model QPF is way overdone for our area...
Yes... the (forecast) models have pissed in my Cheerios.
My forecast for here is a little mixed rain / snow changing to all rain. Precipitation doesn't really break out until the occlusion approaches, well after an extended period of low level WAA. This should warm SFC temps to above freezing, leading to mostly rain and some snow/sleet mixing in depending on how evaporative cooling plays in. With such a strong high to the northeast, I also suspect model QPF is way overdone for our area...
Yes... the (forecast) models have pissed in my Cheerios.
