12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Chris Carter]

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

Crazy huge area of big totals....too big obviously. (I think this thread needs some dramatic music now)

Isn't that also including the snow from the clipper system moving ahead of the winter storm this week? So that very wide area of 20" of snow from ND, SD and into MN is very well inlcuding the snow from the clipper system.

Pretty impressive though to see a foot snow covering nearly a 6 state area.

 

[Chris Carter]

Wow, GFS slows it down and brings the path further NW again... MN looks to get smacked. Canadian trending the same. Will be a denser snow than the last big system though.

Yes, i believe the snow rates of last weeks storm was 15-20 to 1. This storm seems a bit wetter due to the warm air advection, snow rates are 10-12 to 1.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Isn't that also including the snow from the clipper system moving ahead of the winter storm this week? So that very wide area of 20" of snow from ND, SD and into MN is very well inlcuding the snow from the clipper system.

Pretty impressive though to see a foot snow covering nearly a 6 state area.

Yeah it would include everything 0-120hr.

Clipper would be responsible for about this much of that blob...

 

[Paul Hadfield]

Per what I have read on ILX's discussion and weather story, my area could see an ice storm out of this. I like snowstorms...but not ice storms, and especially on Christmas eve. It will be interesting if the computer models shift the storm south or north...as it could be a deciding factor if we either have mostly rain, an ice storm, or a snowstorm

I think Decatur and Champaign will dodge the bullet for the most part. ILX currently has the low center passing just W of our counties (coinciding with the NW track predictions being put forth here) and to be on the SE side, even just slightly makes a huge difference. Since it looks to be a daytime event I think that along with the amount of warm advection forecast will bode well for us as far as limiting elevated ice accumulations. Not sure I would want to be anywhere NW of the IL river from say Quincy to Peoria for any of it. For being so close to the low track regardless of how far N or S the forecast ends up taking it, we're in the boring middle. SE IL gets the chance for thunder...

Where were these lows throughout all of 2009 or perhaps 2010 is just getting it's act together early?

 

[Chris Carter]

NWS in KC has a great analysis on this system and a good idea of how this system is going to pan out this morning as the new runs begin to come out. Sounds like most locations in NE, KS and IA are following the Euro's slower resolution to this storm. Most of Kansas has mentioned Blizzard Watches starting Wednesday evening until Thursday night or beyond. Dodge City is predicting nearly a 12" in some spots with more to the north and east of that.

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=MO&prodtype=discussion#AFDEAX

For the record, im not buying into the GFS bullish idea of moving the low due north from Arkansas to Minnesota over a period of 72 hours, especially when i don't see anything causing it to move like it (In my experience the only reason that a low takes a sharp turn like that is because of a high in the area that causes it to make a turn like that, and i just don't see one there. Its either the Euro is right with NE track out of OK into the Great Lakes with a secondary low developing in the SE that brings heavy rain to the Northeast or the Canadian that takes it on a more ENE track and brings more snow and ice to the NE and doesn't develop the secondary low to the south.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

0z GFS for 6pm Thursday

6z GFS for 6pm Thursday

It is interesting how much an off hour can change things. It's a good bit different handing that vort max trailing the lead main one. Something more to what ECMWF and Canadian have had in mind.

It leaves less "pinching" or stretching of the lower level circulation as they are competing with each other that much less.

0z GFS 850mb 6pm Thursday

6z GFS 850mb 6pm Thursday

That little change can make a huge difference. Precip is flung more around into the cold air rather than just pinched off in a n-s line.

0z GFS 60hr precip thoughts.

6z GFS 60hr precip thought.


Rather than stretching it out up into eastern Dakotas/MN more gets piled up back into eastern half of NE. This should be a doozy around here if reality handles those two like ECMWF has wanted, as well as Canadian most of the time, and hopefully now the GFS is onto something. I hate nothing more than when you get two entities going east through here with one just north of the other, screwing each other up. Loving that wrap up look, though it could mean the end of the world for someone. For the sake of people's Christmas I hope it is at lest mostly snow, not big ice followed by big wind....but fearing that is quite likely for some poor souls.

6z snow map...which I think is now really close to at least the location.

It is scary to consider the liquid equiv map up higher and that 2+ means 18-20 to the GFS for snow, while the same 2+ areas to the se of that mean like 8-10.....god knows what that would be on top of as far as ice.

 

[Joe Schaub]

I think Decatur and Champaign will dodge the bullet for the most part. ILX currently has the low center passing just W of our counties (coinciding with the NW track predictions being put forth here) and to be on the SE side, even just slightly makes a huge difference. Since it looks to be a daytime event I think that along with the amount of warm advection forecast will bode well for us as far as limiting elevated ice accumulations. Not sure I would want to be anywhere NW of the IL river from say Quincy to Peoria for any of it. For being so close to the low track regardless of how far N or S the forecast ends up taking it, we're in the boring middle. SE IL gets the chance for thunder...

Where were these lows throughout all of 2009 or perhaps 2010 is just getting it's act together early?

I am just northwest of the IL river and am already preparing for a significant ice event. The NOAA office in Lincoln is now saying rain Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday and very windy conditions starting Tuesday and going through Thursday with gusts up to 30 mph.

It's going to be a long long week.

 

[Jesse Risley]

As always, it's still a bit too early to get a good idea of where the final storm track will be. Once the energy reaches the coast and the Pacific upper-air network gets a better synopsis of this system, model runs over the next 24 hours should have at least a better degree of accuracy.

I think nailing down precipitation types will be the biggest (usual) challenge over the next 48 hours, as there will continue to be inconsistency with the placing of 0C surface temperatures, the northward progression of warm air and resolving the ultimate evolution of the EWL and 850-700mb thickness. I think it's a fair bet that at least parts of IA, MN and West Central WI have a decent chance of seeing some respectable SN, with a corridor of IP and FZRA immediately to the SE.

 

[Mark Sefried]

I am just northwest of the IL river and am already preparing for a significant ice event. The NOAA office in Lincoln is now saying rain Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday and very windy conditions starting Tuesday and going through Thursday with gusts up to 30 mph.

It's going to be a long long week.

Newest Nam has almost all the the ILX cwa turning over to rain by Wednesday afternoon. The early morning commmute may be a problem though for you as it does not take much freezing rain to make the roads slick. Most of the time it seems the worst of it comes withen the first hour or so of the freezing rain for travel purposes because a lot of the roads are not salted yet.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Snow Thursday OK?

Taken a look at 12Z WRF the system seems to better in phase by 12Z Thursday. The upper low tracks now NW/TX toward SW/MO this tracks usually gives NE OK some snow. The 950mb, 850mb, 700mb lows track from SC/OK toward Joplin during the day Thursday. The cold air at 850mb finally arrives just ahead of the upper low with a burst of .50-1” of liquid most should fall as heavy wet snow during the day Thursday in NE OK.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I noticed this as well Jeff with this mornings WRF run. Surface low near Joplin at 12z & moving up towards north central Missouri by 00z. It looks like NE OK will still be above freezing at 12z, but transitions to below freezing between 12z & 00z. I agree this track has given up pretty good snow amounts in the past. The projected snowfall totals for the NE OK area on wxcaster.com are roughly 6-8 inches of total accumulations by 7 pm. This is as far as the WRF goes out as of now.

Taken a look at 12Z WRF the system seems to better in phase by 12Z Thursday. The upper low tracks now NW/TX toward SW/MO this tracks usually gives NE OK some snow. The 950mb, 850mb, 700mb lows track from SC/OK toward Joplin during the day Thursday. The cold air at 850mb finally arrives just ahead of the upper low with a burst of .50-1” of liquid most should fall as heavy wet snow during the day Thursday in NE OK.

 

[Chris Heater]

Boy...after seeing all those model runs it looks like it will be mostly, if not all, rain for me. Pretty crappy for the prospect of a white Christmas. Not happening this year I guess! I would be happy with a dusting if I happened to get that. At least the first week of January is looking active. May get something out of that at least

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Wow, "shocker" GFS has really very much trended to the ECWMF. It's now doing what the ECMWF and Canadian thought to do long ago. And the 6z run really saw the change coming. Now one just needs to get the NAM on board in handling of those two entities.

Nam at 84hr
GFS at 84hr

NAM holding on to the old GFS idea...more separated and n-s of each other. Sure doesn't change a ton for a lot of people either way, but will obviously make a big difference for others.

Nuts

Stole a page out of the ECMWF's book.

 

[Joel Wright]

After looking at most of the 12z data the thought process remains about the same from me. Looking like a Plains and upper Midwest Christmas snowstorm/blizzard. Heaviest snows will fall over NE, northwest IA, much of eastern SD, about all but southeast MN, into western WI. Huge QPF totals from the slow movement and waterlogged nature of storm points to snow amounts well over a foot in those areas.

Forecast is considerably more difficult southeast of there where precip type becomes the challenge. Many areas will see about every form of precip imaginable lol. For example Chicago will start out as snow tonight into Tuesday, but as warmer air above the surface lifts north they'll change to freezing rain by Wednesday. Looks like the low will really wrap up over southern IA and pull even warmer surface air northward. Could see the surface freezing line launch all the way into southern Wisconsin by late Thursday. Somewhere in that zone southeast of the all snow region could get a significant amount of ice. Due to the intense WAA depicted by the GFS that zone of ice may be on the move though instead of stalling over one given area for a long length of time. That could be the saving grace for many areas receiving a huge amount of ice accumulations.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

Topeka has pulled the ice back to the West of us now and Wichita has issued a blizzard watch. It looks like we might end up as a rain event here but it wasn't that many years ago they called for something similar and we had a major ice storm.