12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Mike Hollingshead]

I've been chasing over twice as long as you, so I'm not sure what your point is. I'll come straight out and say that Nebraska will not have storms worth you going out for. I suppose I could be wrong and you'll nail this one, but given the current outlook that's the forecast I'm going with.

My point was not how long anyone has chased, just that I thought maybe you liked forecasting them MORE than chasing them. Some do. I thought perhaps that is why you couldn't understand some getting a boost over crazy looking model runs.

 

[rdale]

My point was not how long anyone has chased, just that I thought maybe you liked forecasting them MORE than chasing them.

Gotcha - the way I interpreted your post surprised me a bit. My bad.

I'd rather see a blizzard than correctly forecast one, but doing both would be my perfect storm

To keep on-topic, the Canadian ensemble (pretty reliable) says there will be a low somewhere in the Great Lakes, but that's about it. The contours the mean SLP, and the numbers are the low centers for individual runs.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

That thought process seems to get Mike a little upset, but there's no law against getting your forecast solely from the GFS - just as much as there's no law against Mike making his chase decisions solely from SPC.

Thank god for that!

Some might simply enjoy the potential as it unfolds and feel like shooting the **** about a storm, which might include those crazy gfs maps. You really can't do that anywhere other than a forecast thread if you want to post those CRAZY gfs maps in your shooting of the ****(winter and spring things). You shoot it other places and it gets moved to a forecast thread, shoot it there and you get "informed". Again, I imagine most doing so understand the likelihood of far off runs not happening. They don't seem to have a problem with this factoid. Perhaps because they like storms and enjoy the uptick, and aren't, nor pretending to be, forecasting for any population. Believe me, if they had another area on here to shoot the **** with wild crazy extended runs....I would do it there.....and let the experts have at it here, minus the excitable type posters.

Btw, I don't chase off SPC. I use ST forecast threads, spotter network, and carry a Farmer's Almanac with as a back up.

Btw II....damn at the 0z ECMWF(insert self destruct bot here)

 

[Adam Lucio]

Yea, I hate when I try to talk about a potential far away event and the first response I get is some know it all jackass saying "bla bla bla why are you looking that far out." The mere fact I know what a forecast model is means I know it can't be trusted entirely, but I like to watch how it unfolds and discuss it amongst those who also understand.

People complain there isn't enough "quality discussion" on this board but then shoot those down who try to start them...if it bothers you people try to forecast an event further out then go add more drama to the stupid copyright thread and others of the like.

That being said, I dont know what to think anymore...the 00z EURO is well...allot slower and less intense. Yesterday I was ready to write this off as a bust [rainy mix/dry slot event] for my area with a similar scenario to last weeks "epic blizzard." Todays 0Z GFS gave me hope again and now the 12z shot it down the crapper. They really are all over the place here.

Still looks like some part of the country will experience some major holiday travel nightmares though.

 

[rdale]

New GEM is even more northwest - taking it through eastern Iowa and into western Wisconsin. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/vizaweb/confview/animate_e.html?model=054_G1&Checkcmp=&CheckV=0&CLONE=non&Category=CLASSIC&domaine=north%40america&RUN=2009121912&heurevld=120&ImageVal=I_CLASSIC_dz1000%40500%40pn&lang=eng&type=Auto&Interval=&modelcmp=054_G1&comparaison=%2Fdata%2Fprog%2Fglobal%2F2009121912%2F2009121912_054_G1_north%40america_I_CLASSIC_dz1000%40500%40pn_120.png&Imagecmp=I_CLASSIC_dz1000%40500%40pn&Listrun=&Fconf=%2Fvizaweb%2Fconfview%2F_vizarep.conf&JSPATH=%2Fvizaweb%2Fjs&model2=054_G1&dateR=2009121900%3A1

12Z ECMWF almost matches it exactly...

 

[Dick McGowan]

New GEM is even more northwest - taking it through eastern Iowa and into western Wisconsin. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/viza...=/vizaweb/js&model2=054_G1&dateR=2009121900:1

12Z ECMWF almost matches it exactly...

Link doesn't work. You said this yourself:

Your time would be better spent learning how to forecast as opposed to learning how to copy-n-paste a useless GFS map.

Rob, I can put you in touch with your local NWS office, if you'd like, and perhaps they can show you the ropes of winter weather forecasting and why it's important not to side with any model this far out, even when a couple might be showing some general agreement. From what I hear, they are always glad to help out newbies or weather weenies. Shoot me a pm if you'd like.

 

[rdale]

Link doesn't work.

Still works for me - did you use the username/password combo I posted in the educational section?

why it's important not to side with any model this far out, even when a couple might be showing some general agreement.

At some point you have to make a forecast. Sort of like when you post your chase outlooks and still haven't made your mind up the morning of the event, waiting for one more SPC outlook before heading out. Sometimes you just have to develop a forecast and run with it, instead of running away...

 

[Jason Bolt]

Way to go rdale. Nothing like accusing one of the most prolific chasers in history of not knowing how to forecast.

Most central plains WFOs seem to be in more agreement today of a travel impacting storm Tuesday through Thursday somewhere in the area. This is of personal importance to me as I actually am off through the holidays and have travel plans to western Kansas. If we are wishcasting, I am hoping for a giant dry slot from SGF to DDC.

 

[Chris Heater]

This storm is still pretty far out...but thus far the ILX NWS is siding with the GFS on the latest runs. We haven't had a white Christmas in quite a while...so seeing SOMETHING would be nice. It'll be something to watch

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM VARYING
CONSIDERABLY WITH MODEL...AND ISSUANCE. DUE TO VARIOUS
TELECONNECTION TRENDS...AM MORE INCLINED TO AGREE WITH A LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW AND A LESS PHASED PATTERN FOR THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM. THAT
BEING SAID...THE 00Z GFS IS THE BETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...A
POTENTIAL BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS
LIKELY TO FURTHER INFLUENCE A PATTERN SHIFT THAT THE MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WORKING OUT. WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z
CANADIAN SHIFTING A BIT FROM THEIR 12Z SOLUTIONS...FALLING IN LINE
WITH THE 12Z GFS THAT WAS AN OUTLIER...THINKING THAT THE GFS MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE AHEAD A BIT. REGARDLESS...SFC SYSTEM APPROACHING
SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND SPREADING SNOWFALL INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE
WED/WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INTO THURSDAY

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

As is expected the GooFuS is slowing the system down and deepening the low with each successive run. I also wouldn't be surprised if temps are colder than what the models are ahowing right now.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Wow this is crazy; Already the GFS 120hr total snow accumulation from this morning’s 12Z has 6-8" across most of E NE, I'd say it's about time for Winter-Storm Watches!!!!! I'm going to Wal-Mart to stock up on supplies, and buy all the schnapps I can!!!!

On a more serious note, I'm not sure I've ever understood all the snob forecasters getting disgruntle about a few folks getting excited over some operational model runs. I'd say more often than not, when you take the consensus among the major models and put them together, anything within 120hrs out is typically pretty accurate (at least in terms of regional impacts). If you feel you're better than this type of forecasting (or whatever you wish to call it) that’s great, but you probably should be out making money forecasting as opposed to trying to prove others wrong, and you probably should realize that with some 1000+ members (most just thrill seeking enthusiast) you’re best off finding a new place to read opinions on an upcoming storm; many of us are completely cool with watching the trends of the models and discussing those trends run to run as though they're on to something.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

Here is a part of the latest forecast reasoning from the Chanhassen, MN NWS office:

a very unsettled weather pattern over the next seven days. Both the
European and canadain models develop a bomb(large low surface
pressure center) over the Midwest by Christmas day. The models have
been leading toward the northern solution as opposed to the southern
solution of the operational GFS model. Prefer a compomise between
the two or blended solution...by developing a deep surface low over
Missouri instead over Iowa. Anyway...it still look favorable for
snow over the upper Midwest Thursday into Christmas morning.

Things are looking more and more interesting towards the middle to late part of this coming week...

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

The NWS in Wichita is freaking out about this setup LOL. They have a special weather statement issued telling people to expect hazardous travel Wed through Christmas Day. The 12z GFS still looks to be in general agreement to what it has been showing for days now with the exception of yesterday which IMO was just a fluke couple of runs as this has been consistent the longest. If it holds true or close to true KC may get lucky and get a decent snowstorm. It looks like Wed/Wed night we will stay below freezing at the surface but above 0C at the 850mb level which would leave us with some freezing rain possibly up to a tenth of an inch before a changeover to all snow Wed night. It appears this is when KS, N MO, IA, and E NE gets in on the snow action when we could see the heaviest snow on Christmas eve. Hopefully it won't continue to shift any further north and hopefully move a tad bit back to the south. If it holds true though KC could see over 8" with spots up to a foot!

Now a roller coaster ride of model runs between now and then but I remember on the last system it jumped around but kept the system in the same general vicinity staying north for the most part and so I am thinking we will see the low move into AR and stay south of the AR/MO border come Wed/Thurs.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Snow Storm OK/KS/NE/MO/IA/IL/MN/SD

The models are hinting at major winter storm will affect the plains next week. I think with the system so dynamic with 120+ meter height falls late Wednesday into Friday over the plains.

The surface low around 1000 mb around Southern OK then deepens to around 990 mb or lower as it moves NNE toward SW/MO/KS area late Thursday. I would expect thunder storms over a large part of AR/LA/MO/OK some severe.

Thunder snow with this event is likely on the cold side.

I think Blizzard conditions are possible for parts of OK/KS/MO/NE/IA Wednesday into Christmas day. The model QPF IE SNOW could exceed 12+ over a large area. The surface winds 30+ with this system as temps plunge into the teens behind the arctic front.

Hey looks like a White Christmas get the sleds ready!!

PS. The first week of Jan looks AWSOME if you like active weather.

 

[Brian Stertz]

If the 12z Euro verifies, it may be an all out blizzard for KC area. Super deep cyclone tracks from near Joplin Thur. morning to SE Iowa by Friday morning. Lots of lift with the main upper low...good moisture wrapping back into cold air at KC....and solidly snow by Wed. evening with a mix beforehand likely. Wonder if I'll be able to get out Thur. on my flight to DC...through Chicago. Looks pretty wild Jeff...time to maybe look at a later flight out.