Wishcasting - potential chasing on the horrizen

[Andrew Stoller]

Wishcasting - potential chasing on the horizon

WAY too early to start any kind of forecast thread, but by this weekend, the GFS is finally projecting a trough for the western US. Looks to be a little to the north. Hopefully it can slow way down and dig deeper to the south and pull up some better moisture.

Hey, I'm grasping at straws as of now!

 

[Dave Marshall]

SPC has been hinting at "increasing potential for severe" on Saturday/Sunday for a couple days now, mostly talking about the western and central plains. Here's hoping it can head for the SE US after it gives you guys in the plains something to do.

We've made up a huge chunk of our rainfall deficit in the last couple weeks, and another good round of rain (with some supercells in the lead!) would not be unwelcome.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Oooooooooo, just glanced over the ECMWF; that looks even better!

 

[Steve Miller TX]

The only issue I see now is the return flow trajectory across the Caribbean and GOM basin. We don't even begin to develop a real good trajectory until Sunday at the earliest with Monday looking better. The result is going to be a modified airmass to work with on Sunday and therefore a struggle with overall moisture quality...especially up on the Caprock.

But, definitely a potent looking system in the crystal ball to be sure.

 

[David Drummond]

What is a horizzen?

 

[Jeff Russell]

Here's hoping it can head for the SE US after it gives you guys in the plains something to do. .

Dave if you ever want to get together and head out west, drop me a line. I'm off for the next three weeks and probably will be heading west for this next system if things look promising. Drop me a PM.

We've made up a huge chunk of our rainfall deficit in the last couple weeks, and another good round of rain (with some supercells in the lead!) would not be unwelcome.

We need all the rain we can get!

Sorry for the hijack,

Jeff

 

[Jeff Russell]

What is a horizzen?

It's when you have too many late night snacks over the keyboard and your z key starts to stick!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

What is a horizzen?

I fluncked spealleeng, mmmmm kay.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

Moisture is going to be a problem for Sunday. Monday will probably be the most realistic shot. The GFS keeps hinting at the possibility of several opportunities starting early next week through the 1st of April...but we all know how much that changes from run to run...so we'll see. There's still WAY too much time between now and Sunday/Monday.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

Yeah, the GFS has been showing multiple chase opportunities over the next couple of weeks for several days now. I know I really shouldn't be getting excited this early, but it's hard not to when you've only chased three times since June

 

[Chris Allington]

ECMWF has been fairly consistent with the timing of this, and the GFS ensemble members have been slowing down with the progression of things over the last couple of runs also. I like Monday afternoon and evening the best so far but I do share the concerns about the degree of moisture return by Monday. Might have to take a vacation day if this continues to look better later in the week.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Monday is going to be HUGE. March 13, 1990 II. It'll be a day that if you only get one tornado, it was considered that you busted.

Even GEM onboard kicking out a beast around then.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Convenient, given Monday's my birthday and all, hell its my 23rd Birthday on the 23rd, has to mean something big... Really I'm not to excited, if for no other reason then its still a solid 6 days out, and the models have been all over the place (no surprise given the season) but who knows how and when its going to eject, then there's the whole moisture still South of Cuba thing, oh and probably an outrageous CAP, not gonna lie though, I'll probably take Monday off, but unless the looks of the moisture situation improve I'll probably end up fishing...

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I'm glad someone was brave enough to start talking about our chase chances on the horrizen! (typos are so much fun BTW)

The GFS has been very consistent in at least indicating a few chances for chases starting this next week...and I'm sure there's going to be some big opportunities. If anyone is thinking about sitting these out because they're 'early season', I hope you do so the roads arent' crowded too soon BUT I'd recommend you look at most of the classic tornado video on the Southern Plains and look at the timestamps on those vids before making that decision

 

[Dave Marshall]

I'm still wrapping my head around the models, Any of you guys seeing anything for the gulf states and into Georgia in your crystal ball? I'm nearly done with my new chase vehicle and desperate to put my spiffy new HD camera to use