Wishcasting - potential chasing on the horrizen

[Mike Hollingshead]

They've actually seemed rather consistent to me, just different between each other.

I see mid-60 to 70 TDs in the central Gulf right now. It could be a lot worse 6 days out. Yeah the high will build se and cause ne winds over part of the gulf, but it could be a lot worse ahead of a big system as far as moisture hopes.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I can see that moisture return is an issue once again. I think people say that on EVERY single setup, but it has always NOT been a problem what so ever. Don't worry everyone it will get here.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

I like Monday also, but have been putting more attention on next Wednesday per the GFS. Being that far out and using the GFS model, I should say next Thursday! The model has been really consistent with VERY nice thermodynamics over Oklahoma, and more so, southern Oklahoma. Only negative factor I see is veered 850mb flow, but hell, being over a week away, who knows what those winds will end up looking like by then. Just wishcasting with all the rest of you! Just nice to see a pattern change next week and the gulf opening up for business with a couple of systems digging through!!! I have no complaints.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

Well, damn, maybe I spoke too soon! This really defines the term of this thread, "wishcasting" when were all looking at the models this far in advance. I simply use them to say "okay, next week the pattern is going to change and it looks like two systems will be moving through the plains. Maybe some chase potential." You can start to get a handel of the region you will be chasing in when the forecasted chase day begins to show up on the WRF. Really, about three days out is all you can forecast for with any type of accuracy.

The last GFS run totally looks like crap for Wednesday and pushes everything down into Texas. It was pretty consistent on the past 4 runs or so, showing a good set-up over Oklahoma. Maybe just a bad run. I will wait and see if things swing back into play with tonight's run.

Too hard to really pinpoint any type of target looking out a week or so in advance, so I will put my foot in my mouth now! Just note that the pattern will be changing next week and it looks like at least two, maybe three decent chase days will evolve somewhere over the plains starting late this weekend and running into next week.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Well, damn, maybe I spoke too soon! This really defines the term of this thread, "wishcasting" when were all looking at the models this far in advance. I simply use them to say "okay, next week the pattern is going to change and it looks like two systems will be moving through the plains. Maybe some chase potential." You can start to get a handel of the region you will be chasing in when the forecasted chase day begins to show up on the WRF. Really, about three days out is all you can forecast for with any type of accuracy.

The last GFS run totally looks like crap for Wednesday and pushes everything down into Texas. It was pretty consistent on the past 4 runs or so, showing a good set-up over Oklahoma. Maybe just a bad run. I will wait and see if things swing back into play with tonight's run.

Too hard to really pinpoint any type of target looking out a week or so in advance, so I will put my foot in my mouth now! Just note that the pattern will be changing next week and it looks like at least two, maybe three decent chase days will evolve somewhere over the plains starting late this weekend and running into next week.

This post definitely sums up next week....I don't think anyone should get caught up with any specifics this far out. Just when you see a pattern change like this happen with the models...expect to be chasing soon enough.

I have a personal bias against the 27th-28th since my brother is getting married...but I definitely think I'll have other days outside of those two anyways over the coming weeks. The only thing people should concern themselves with right now is to start getting things in order for potential chases next week

 

[Brandon Goforth]

I can see that moisture return is an issue once again. I think people say that on EVERY single setup, but it has always NOT been a problem what so ever. Don't worry everyone it will get here.

I think moisture will only be a problem on Sunday looking at recent GFS runs, after that it looks like we should be okay.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Well, damn, maybe I spoke too soon! This really defines the term of this thread, "wishcasting" when were all looking at the models this far in advance. I simply use them to say "okay, next week the pattern is going to change and it looks like two systems will be moving through the plains. Maybe some chase potential." You can start to get a handel of the region you will be chasing in when the forecasted chase day begins to show up on the WRF. Really, about three days out is all you can forecast for with any type of accuracy.

Really depends on how you define "accuracy." If by "accuracy," you mean "every relevant synoptic feature is forecast well with +/- a half a state," you're right. But, if you take "accuracy" to mean that the general pattern is forecast well (the long wave pattern isn't greater than, say, 20 degrees out of phase), then I think that's probably not true. Days like 4/26/91 and 5/29/04 were very well forecast -- up to a week in advance.

I think the consensus opinion of the board is that something big is likely shaping up for early next week; I can't disagree. I've seen veterans and newbies alike "poo-poo" a so-called "wishcast" many times before -- right before a huge outbreak.

With all due respect, it's easy to say it's not going to happen. Big tornado events don't happen very often, and they're very hard to forecast in the early spring. So, the safe bet is to say it won't happen. But occasionally, the stars -- or, in our case, models -- align for an incredible event. I agree with Mike H: the potential for this one is huge.

 

[Andrew Butler]

Anyone noticed the 18z GFS run?

Spin up the gear folks.

 

[Chris Allington]

Anyone noticed the 18z GFS run?

Spin up the gear folks.

I was just going to mention that haha.

 

[Derek Weston]

All the instability on the runs lately has been N central Neb into SD.... interesting to see an outbreak this early in SD. (still a long ways out, obviously) Not as strongly sheared up there, either.. slower storm motions, it would seem. Nice setup in the area I mentioned, but not a 'huge' setup to me... not like some of the obviously "big time" days I saw coming in 08.

Now, if we shift things down south a bit into Kansas, get some good instability there that comes to fruition... I could see a better possibility for a big time event (really though, mid level jet doesn't seem that outstanding... compared to some of the "big" event I have noticed in my short chasing career)

 

[mikegeukes]

Some boring Climatology Stats:

Number of Tornado Days for March for the following states:
1980-2008 Data (29 Years of Data)

1 Tornado Day: North Dakota
1 Tornado Day: South Dakota
10 Tornado Days: Nebraska
36 Tornado Days: Kansas

 

[Bryan Stokes]

How fun. With 26 posts in about 9 hours (+/-), you can tell that we all have SDS!

Just the other day I was thinking to myself "Man, when something eventually develops, everyone is going to jump all over it." (myself included)

Just how true it is...
Bryan

 

[David Drummond]

This is something somewhat humorous but all too often true I've noticed from reading forecast threads ever since there have been forecast threads. Note, I'm not calling out anyone specific so please don't try to get offended, this is just something I have took note in general. This probably needs a flowchart. LOL

Forecast Thread Reading Guidelines:

1) Is the forecaster poo-pooing the setup?
* Setup is farther from their location than they want to chase
* They can't chase for whatever reason that day.

2) Is the forecaster really hyping the setup?
*It's in or very near their home area.
*They definitely can chase that day.
*They also may not have chased in a while.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Forecast Thread Reading Guidelines:

1) Is the forecaster poo-pooing the setup?
* Setup is farther from their location than they want to chase
* They can can't chase for whatever reason that day.

2) Is the forecaster really hyping the setup?
*It's in or very near their home area.
*They definitely can chase that day.
*They also may not have chased in a while.

I've discovered this long ago and am as guilty as the next guy... anyone who takes offense obviously doesn't forecast! LOL

 

[Sean McMullen]

Absolutely true David! I was just sitting here debating with myself whether I should love this setup or if I should hate it since I'll just be coming off spring break and from a vacation. However, I do know this, if it tiurns out to be a great day and I'm not there to see it you can be sure I will hate all of you who were.