Wishcasting - potential chasing on the horrizen

[Andrew Stoller]

Absolutely true David! I was just sitting here debating with myself whether I should love this setup or if I should hate it since I'll just be coming off spring break and from a vacation.

It's 6 days out. You have to love it at this point!

 

[Verne Carlson]

While we're wishcasting go and look at the 384 hour run of the GFS for April 2! I know it'll never happen like it shows but it is almost a carbon copy of March 28th, 2007 - and we all know what that was like!

 

[Connor McCrorey]

This is something somewhat humorous but all too often true I've noticed from reading forecast threads ever since there have been forecast threads. Note, I'm not calling out anyone specific so please don't try to get offended, this is just something I have took note in general. This probably needs a flowchart. LOL

Forecast Thread Reading Guidelines:

1) Is the forecaster poo-pooing the setup?
* Setup is farther from their location than they want to chase
* They can't chase for whatever reason that day.

2) Is the forecaster really hyping the setup?
*It's in or very near their home area.
*They definitely can chase that day.
*They also may not have chased in a while.

LOL Believe
me David, this is my second year of chasing and even I have noticed this. We all do it, even though a few wouldn't like to admit it

 

[Steve Miller TX]

I've discovered this long ago and am as guilty as the next guy... anyone who takes offense obviously doesn't forecast! LOL

I'd also add that anybody who takes offense is either immune from the severe debilitating and mind-altering effects of Supercell Deprivation Syndrome....or they don't have pulse. ;-)

I'll be even more bold and look further ahead out to around 1344 hours around May 17th +/- a week and note that awesome setup between Texas and Nebraska!

 

[Connor McCrorey]

This is something somewhat humorous but all too often true I've noticed from reading forecast threads ever since there have been forecast threads. Note, I'm not calling out anyone specific so please don't try to get offended, this is just something I have took note in general. This probably needs a flowchart. LOL

Forecast Thread Reading Guidelines:

1) Is the forecaster poo-pooing the setup?
* Setup is farther from their location than they want to chase
* They can't chase for whatever reason that day.

2) Is the forecaster really hyping the setup?
*It's in or very near their home area.
*They definitely can chase that day.
*They also may not have chased in a while.

LOL Believe me David, this is my second year of chasing and even I have noticed this. We all do it, even though a few wouldn't like to admit it

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Well, damn, maybe I spoke too soon! This really defines the term of this thread, "wishcasting" when were all looking at the models this far in advance. I simply use them to say "okay, next week the pattern is going to change and it looks like two systems will be moving through the plains. Maybe some chase potential." You can start to get a handel of the region you will be chasing in when the forecasted chase day begins to show up on the WRF. Really, about three days out is all you can forecast for with any type of accuracy.

The last GFS run totally looks like crap for Wednesday and pushes everything down into Texas. It was pretty consistent on the past 4 runs or so, showing a good set-up over Oklahoma. Maybe just a bad run. I will wait and see if things swing back into play with tonight's run.

Too hard to really pinpoint any type of target looking out a week or so in advance, so I will put my foot in my mouth now! Just note that the pattern will be changing next week and it looks like at least two, maybe three decent chase days will evolve somewhere over the plains starting late this weekend and running into next week.

I wouldn't worry about it Brandon, I have noticed over the last few weeks watching various setups that the 18z is always the worst of the runs, with the 0z and 12z the best and most accurate, the 6z can be a long shot too.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I wouldn't worry about it Brandon, I have noticed over the last few weeks watching various setups that the 18z is always the worst of the runs, with the 0z and 12z the best and most accurate, the 6z can be a long shot too.

I'm not sure how it can do it, but I've noticed that fairly often when the 18z makes a decent size change from a 12z run, it's often followed up that next 0z run. I actually like what the 18z GFS did, trend closer to the ECMWF thoughts(*shock* lol). Nothing other than general timing and overall ejecting "size/shape" matters to me at the moment. I noticed one run of the ECMWF had some seriously backed 850s under sw 500s(non-backed woohoo). That one made me think March 28, 07, though it was too far north. It was one of the last couple years I learned to discount SD "model ops" in March. I'd say that ain't gonna happen like the GFS had been indicating. I think NE to TX will happen and that would work for me.

The real test on if it continues will be tonight's run lol. It's sure as hell toast after this much rapid discussion. Actually I doubt that, but boy, sure wouldn't be the first time.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

The real test on if it continues will be tonight's run lol. It's sure as hell toast after this much rapid discussion.

Moderators, please lock this thread.

 

[Adam Lucio]

It will verify, the whole active pattern through April 2nd...because Im supposed to be backup support at work which will make it extremely hard for me to take off work.

Anyone know any cute girls with active mono? I need a doctors note.

I have been watching it for the past 2 days now...should be several chase opportunities to say the least.

 

[Chip Redmond]

Anyone know any cute girls with active mono? I need a doctors note.
.

Wow, now thats devotion! Haha

Been watching this coming week for the last week super close. Spring break is next week and it will likely be one of the few chances that I get to chase in the plains this year. I am quite surprised at how much 18z GFS improved things with early next week. I was watching the next system into the end of the week closer and almost overlooking the 22-24 but today the late week system went to crap. Its a tough split to decide which will be better as its either one or the other for me, only time will tell. Instability doesn't seem to be a big problem, just hope the gulf moisture can be tapped.


Chip

 

[Danny Neal]

Lol for this chase Adam I think I will be chasing solo....don't need any hepatitis or the plague

In all seriousness, Monday is looking pretty decent at this point. Favorable moisture return near a sub 1000 low (990 ish) according to the ECMWF. I haven't decided if I wanted to pull the trigger yet, since it is a few days out before the models hint at an agreement. I don't know if it is worth it to make a 10 hour trip for a linear/forced event which I suspect may occur. There may be some dryline action down in OK/TX that could be more appetizing

 

[John LaJoie]

Sundays outlook

It seems a bit early to tell for sure if anythings going to happen late this weekend, but hopefully the models are beginning to show for a good day of chasing Days 5 and 6.

 

[John Begler]

I watched a really nice dust devil in the alley across the street from my office today. Does that count?? ) I guess one of the nice things about living here in tornado country is eventually they will come to me. I only hope that when I get back after spotting is that my house will still be here when I get home.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

And the 0z GFS trends right on over towards what the ECMWF has been saying, still a bit quicker but not as much. SFC response not like the ECMWF either as well as backing mid-level flow to the north.

But still....THAT coming out on Monday with a day extra moisture should prove at least interesting.

 

[Brandon Lawson]

The gfs just went from complete garbage system(12z) to powerhouse(00z) in one run. And it has slowed the system down a hair, a typical trend for the gfs as you get closer to the day in question. I really hope no one is rooting for this to come through on sunday. As long as the GFS solution keeps trending towards the ECMWF, this really could be huge.

Cookies and Milk anyone?