Wishcasting - potential chasing on the horrizen

[Steve Miller TX]

Indeed....nice trend towards the ECMWF which seems to handle these types of systems better further out. Don't be surprised if we see an even deeper and slower solution.....but then again, anything could happen with the models. But, it is certainly nice to see a classic system taking shape for this time of year instead of some bizarre contortion of an upper air pattern.

The return flow trajectory has certainly improved too. I'm more optimistic about better quality of moisture return setting up for Monday. Sunday might even have a nice little pre-show event in the TX PH or E NM. This is gonna be fun to watch unfold.....and how well I can contain my raging SDS until then.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

The gfs just went from complete garbage system(12z) to powerhouse(00z) in one run.

LOL! I've been watching this thing for a week and it's gone back and forth like this every day. Take a look again in the morning and it will be garbage.

 

[David Reimer]

LOL! I've been watching this thing for a week and it's gone back and forth like this every day. Take a look again in the morning and it will be garbage.

Ive seen high CAPE vaules over the past few days, but this is the first run Ive seen of the GFS introduce that amount of Sheer. We shall see.

 

[Brandon Lawson]

LOL! I've been watching this thing for a week and it's gone back and forth like this every day. Take a look again in the morning and it will be garbage.

Calling it a complete garbage system was going a bit far. I admit that. I've been trying to follow both the GFS and ECMWF, and I don't recall seeing the GFS showing anything as impressive as the Euro has been showing up until tonight's run. I won't lie though... I get a little too excited at times. Seeing the GFS solution trend a little more like the ECMWF got me fired up. Plus, I've been itching to talk about monday for a few days now.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

This is my 6-Day-Off-Severe-Weather-Outlook LOL

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=e...1103545457403808654.0004655e4af3e2e5266b0&z=5

 

[Dave Marshall]

GFS doesn't seem to like the SE US so much on the past couple runs. I don't see a whole lot of shear, probably another linear event. Heck at this point I'd happily take a squall line

Talk about wish casting, the latest GFS run does seem to like AL/GA for Day 10

 

[Connor McCrorey]

While we're wishcasting, the GFS and the ECMWF are both showing more possible severe weather next Thursday. Enough that TSA mentioned it in their AFD this afternoon

 

[Chris C Sanner]

While we're wishcasting, the GFS and the ECMWF are both showing more possible severe weather next Thursday. Enough that TSA mentioned it in their AFD this afternoon

It's definitely that time of the year where after we get one system out of here, we can almost certainly bet there's another one coming sooner or later. Once we get to the point of getting "in" the season, I tend to quit looking more than the next system coming in the models. I did read that in TSA's AFD...so definitely a good sign (but not a good sign that TSA is mentioning it )

 

[nickgrillo]

Something worth watching:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_mslp&hours=hr156hr180

The 12z run shows the trough a bit more neutrally-tilted and the models haven't been very consistant with the timing and placement of the shortwave. However, it's safe to say there will be a chase day this weekend; likely on Saturday in the central plains. Strong surface cyclogenesis with >50kts of SSE 850mb flow beneath >70kts of SSW 500mb flow is something worth watching. Additionally, long-range GFS projects additional waves ejecting into the plains after this 4/4-5 system. I'm thinking the first half of April could be interesting. I'm available to chase anytime after the 7th, so of course I'm optimistic...

 

[Adam Lucio]

I dont like the GFS parading all these systems southeast of where I live lol, it brings a mixed crap of precip here with possible snow. The system you posted above will pull up a decent amount of moisture, so the OH/TN valley folks have something to be watching for.

Id be happier if the troughs would dig over the rockies rather than the plains, or if a system tracked over western WI

The pattern does look active though, well see what happens.

 

[Danny Neal]

Didn't you get the memo? Mother Nature decided to by pass the rest of Spring and Summer and just have winter all over again

It is hard to see snow around here when we just went a month and a half with out it. I agree that it would be favorable to see the troughs digging into the Rockies/SW, however I will just be satisfied to have severe weather SOMEWHERE! If I wanted it bad enough I would probably make the trip to TN/MS in the coming weeks.

 

[nickgrillo]

Indeed it does... Assuming we get quality moisture return (3/23 and 3/27 worked quite well) then we should see scattered supercells developing in the broad warm sector on 4/4 (albeit it's still six days out) given the favorable tropospheric shear. I'm just happy to see the GFS keeping the plains active through the end of the forecast period (mid-April). I may leave as early as 4/10 if the pattern looks favorable enough, and stay out through May.

The pattern does look active though, well see what happens.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

Indeed it does... Assuming we get quality moisture return (3/23 and 3/27 worked quite well) then we should see scattered supercells developing in the broad warm sector on 4/4 (albeit it's still six days out) given the favorable tropospheric shear. I'm just happy to see the GFS keeping the plains active through the end of the forecast period (mid-April). I may leave as early as 4/10 if the pattern looks favorable enough, and stay out through May.

Hey, I'm not complaining about the location of all of this. Nothing better than a supercell in your backyard But really, 4/4 does look interesting. The ECMWF is (of course) slower than the GFS, which would allow more time for moisture return. Like you said, it is nice to see that the GFS is keeping things active. I'm glad Spring is finally here