Upcoming 2016 Storm Chasing Season

[Andy Berrington]

Well, the calendar has flipped once again and meteorological spring is 2 months away, about time to start looking into what 2016 may have to offer. 2015 was often plagued by morning convection and less than optimal lapse rates (largely due to high PWAT content and ST jet influence).

Seeing as we will be transitioning from a strong/super Nino towards neutral or even La Nina by summer, I would expect this season to perhaps last further into June/July like other previous ENSO events of this character along with possibly a slower start in the Plains. Another factor to consider is that the +PDO has taken a significant hit since last spring, which may enable more western troughing ala this November/December. If that type of regime re-emerges sometime during spring, I'd expect some fireworks. ST jet influence may still usher in the lapse rate issue at times.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Haven't looked at all long term, but one observation is that, with this strong +ENSO, the Gulf hasn't ever truly been cleaned of moisture yet this season, and it very well may not happen. Thus I would expect more southern severe weather events to happen as the winter wears on. The typical Plains season may also start earlier this year as a result.

 

[Andy Berrington]

I was thinking the enhanced sub-tropical jet might encourage a suppressed storm track that may lead to some events along the Gulf Coast, but lead to a later start for the Plains as in other Nino springs.

 

[Andy Berrington]

Should also mention that if the last 25 years is any hint, save time for the N Plains in late May and June. 6/15-17/1992, Spencer, Woonsocket/Manchester, Bowdle and 6/17/2010 all occurred coming out of mod/strong Nino winters.

 

[James Gustina]

It's surprising to see the GFS and Euro both keeping the deeper moisture down by the Yucatan Peninsula and other parts of the western GOM almost completely untouched by a major front now that we're into the middle of winter. With how progressive this pattern has been, I'd be surprised to see drought return anywhere across the Plains.

This is completely anecdotal, but this winter vaguely reminds me of 2008 going into 2009 with the 2009 season heating up early with quite a few days on the southern Plains (Lone Grove, Edmond, etc.) due to the stupid pattern we got into early with trough after trough running through by mid-February. Obviously that means nothing moving forward, but a 2009-esque season is hopefully not what we're looking at.

 

[chrisbray]

January seems to be shaping up like a more classic winter month across most of the Conus. I see consistent signals for the 500mb jet digging down from the Arctic from the GFS/CFS runs.

Dunno if that really matters in the long run, it's just looking notably different than December.

 

[Michael Gavan]

I've been rewatching Rich Thompson's Tornado Forecasting workshop. If nothing else to see if I understand it a little better. honestly the first episode is the hardest to follow. I think I need an 8 episode course on Q-G theory alone to follow along better. Anyway, There's a tidbit in there about GOM temps and winter frontal intrusions and he pulled a nice graph that showed even when the GOM is warm coming out of winter, it doesn't necessarily translate to a good year and the complete opposite can be true. Just seems to be little or no correlation or reverse correlation at least anecdotally.

There's so stinking many things to consider. The west is getting far more moisture this year than really since the last strong El Nino. How will that affect EML and Lapse rates this time? A couple years ago it was TOO dry out west, now is it too wet? Warm GOM, Maybe more moisture quality but maybe this translates into a short southern season and a lot of wet, linear storms on the plains? With a snow pack in the northern rockies that is sure to last longer into the spring, might that mean better lapse rates and more quality storms in the northern plains? With a strong southern jet, we may have wicked sheer in the deep south at least in early spring. The more I think about it the less I have any clue what's going to happen.

I just want wedges in the Dakotas and for Iowa to stop being terrible at all the things. That's all, tell me how this winter makes that a sure thing

 

[Jeff Duda]

I've been rewatching Rich Thompson's Tornado Forecasting workshop. If nothing else to see if I understand it a little better. honestly the first episode is the hardest to follow. I think I need an 8 episode course on Q-G theory alone to follow along better. Anyway, There's a tidbit in there about GOM temps and winter frontal intrusions and he pulled a nice graph that showed even when the GOM is warm coming out of winter, it doesn't necessarily translate to a good year and the complete opposite can be true. Just seems to be little or no correlation or reverse correlation at least anecdotally.

There's so stinking many things to consider. The west is getting far more moisture this year than really since the last strong El Nino. How will that affect EML and Lapse rates this time? A couple years ago it was TOO dry out west, now is it too wet? Warm GOM, Maybe more moisture quality but maybe this translates into a short southern season and a lot of wet, linear storms on the plains? With a snow pack in the northern rockies that is sure to last longer into the spring, might that mean better lapse rates and more quality storms in the northern plains? With a strong southern jet, we may have wicked sheer in the deep south at least in early spring. The more I think about it the less I have any clue what's going to happen.

I just want wedges in the Dakotas and for Iowa to stop being terrible at all the things. That's all, tell me how this winter makes that a sure thing

The ultimate bottom line is there is no way to predict with complete specificity and no uncertainty how any given storm chasing season will go. We can all analyze the crap out of the planetary scale conditions (the only scale at which sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability could have any skill in early January), but how well a chase season goes for any given chaser comes down to very small scale details that are generally not known until about the moment they happen. Many chasers use the mantra that "it only takes one day to make a season" because you might say your season was a success if you had just one day when you saw one photogenic tornado out in the open beneath a beautifully sculpted supercell, but didn't see crap otherwise. But the quality of that one day depends on very minute details, including storm scale characteristics (size, shape of the cloud, visibility of the tornado, hail coverage, lightning) as well as human factors such as your perspective of the storm, crowd, physical comfort (were you sick, healthy, optimistic, pessimistic?), and quality of documentation. You can't predict any of those more than a few minutes out, if that.

In general, the quality of storms is just not going to be known until they're occurring. Certain large scale conditions may favor HP or classic supercells, but that doesn't mean every storm that forms in that environment is going to have that morphology. Specific location also matters. A classic supercell trekking across Grant County, Oklahoma is generally going to appear prettier than one trekking through the forests on the east side of Osage County, 75 miles to the east. It would be hard to even predict which county is going to be closest more than a day or two ahead of time.

Finally, even if an objectively high quality storm occurs, each chaser is going to have a different perspective on it. Some will get excellent views while others won't. That will impact their subjective judgment of the storm season.

 

[James Gustina]

We've still probably got a solid 6-7 weeks before we see anything resembling a seasonal trough but it looks like in the long-term (200-ish hours) only one major trough is progged to knock moisture back down to Cuba with that moisture tongue extending out of the Yucatan making it to the Texas coast just a few days shortly after. Obviously February could be a bear with with repeated Gulf sweepers but early season moisture return might not be as big of an issue as it usually is on the Plains come March.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I guess one way to forecast the 2016 season (that will likely include a strong El Niño similar to 1997) is to look at 1997's tornado history (link below). I do agree with those who have suggested an active SE region.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_1997

 

[Brett Roberts]

From purely an ENSO perspective, the top analogs would seem to be 1998, 1983, and 1973, which peaked near +2.0 C during the preceding cold season and then quickly waned going into the warm season. 1997 is much more similar to last year, with warmth developing rapidly through the course of the spring from neutral conditions.

None of those three years I mentioned jump out as particularly great or awful. Just glancing at the tornado tracks, it seems like 1973 and 1983 were relatively active for OK and N TX (including the Panhandles), and unremarkable elsewhere. On the other hand, 1998 was a blockbuster for IA and its immediate surroundings, but fairly lacking throughout roughly the western half of Chase Alley.

 

[Andy Berrington]

I guess one way to forecast the 2016 season (that will likely include a strong El Niño similar to 1997) is to look at 1997's tornado history (link below). I do agree with those who have suggested an active SE region.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_1997

We should be looking at 1998 (out of this pair) in this case since it was the year coming out of the strong Nino (like this year will be). 1997 was heading into it.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Just going on a gut feeling...nothing more, nothing less.

I think the Southern Plains will have a decent year with maybe a slightly above normal season. As the season transitions into late May and into June, I think the Northern Plains will give up the best storms/tornadoes of the season. I'm placing my bets right now that SD will be the winner on the most impressive tornado of the season. Again, just a gut feeling.

 

[chrisbray]

Kinda doubting we will get such an active season in Illinois as last year. Still kicking myself for missing Rochelle. Hopefully we get some more good chances in IA/IL

 

[James Gustina]

With how progressive the pattern has been throughout the winter, and appear to continue to be through the month, I wouldn't be surprised if a February day pops up somewhere assuming the subtropical jet doesn't keep moisture completely hemmed in on the Gulf coast.