Tropical season 2017: general discussion

[Warren Faidley]

Still got a month to go with an active season and I don't see any hint of early western toughing as far out as the models go. Maybe some possible east coast flow. Meanwhile, another strong disturbance has come off the African coast. I hope not, but I would not be surprised to see at least one more Gulf storm before the season ends.

 

[Jeff House]

If we can just get to September 15 the western Gulf starts to get protected by westerlies in any CONUS weather pattern. Unfortunately the wave Warren mentions is already closer than that. Hope it curves or craps out.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Lets hope the 18z GFS and ECMWF are out to lunch. They have a major hurricane skirting / striking the southern tip of Florida (Key West) at 300 hours and then moving it into the Gulf. Way out, but the ECMWF is is showing similar results as the GFS at 240 hours). Yikes!

 

[JamesCaruso]

Lets hope the 18z GFS and ECMWF are out to lunch. They have a major hurricane skirting / striking the southern tip of Florida (Key West) at 300 hours and then moving it into the Gulf. Way out, but the ECMWF is is showing similar results as the GFS at 240 hours). Yikes!

Yeah I saw that on the GFS, pretty amazing path with the southeastern coast of FL getting pounded by the northeast quadrant of the storm, the southern tip and Keys getting raked by the eyewall, all while keeping the center mostly over water and then skirting right up the west coast of FL with a landfall on the eastern end of the panhandle... On the other hand, the GEFS at the same run time showed nothing but a weak low!



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[GPhillips]

Yeah I saw that on the GFS, pretty amazing path with the southeastern coast of FL getting pounded by the northeast quadrant of the storm, the southern tip and Keys getting raked by the eyewall, all while keeping the center mostly over water and then skirting right up the west coast of FL with a landfall on the eastern end of the panhandle... On the other hand, the GEFS at the same run time showed nothing but a weak low!

I'm not sure what website and display type you were looking at for the GEFS but most sea level pressure output from the ensemble is related to the mean of the members. With the varying intensity and location of the cyclone among the forecast members, the mean will always almost always be weaker and smoothed out relative to operational GFS. This is especially true as one goes out in time and the spread among the members becomes larger.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I'm not sure what website and display type you were looking at for the GEFS but most sea level pressure output from the ensemble is related to the mean of the members. With the varying intensity and location of the cyclone among the forecast members, the mean will always almost always be weaker and smoothed out relative to operational GFS. This is especially true as one goes out in time and the spread among the members becomes larger.

That makes sense and is really helpful, thanks!

FYI I was using pivotalweather.com.


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