Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season

[Michael Gavan]

Did you just say the great lakes suck?

 

[James Gustina]

In all seriousness, we might be sitting at single digit tornado numbers at the end of March which is insane to think about. We're closing in on halfway through March pretty rapidly and there hasn't even been a severe weather report of any kind since the 25th of February. Kind of crazy but interesting at the same time to see a year start out like this.

 

[Adam Lucio]

As long as the Great Lakes are so below average in temperature they're going to be sucking those high pressures down from Canada. Sounds like a negative feedback loop?

Its been above average around here lately and will continue to be until next week it looks like. Once the snowpack melts that March sun warms us up quickly. Below normal temps around here dont really "suck down" cold air from up north, rather they are the result of the overall synoptic pattern. Its true that when the area is covered by snow its easier for the cold air to ooze down, but as we move into March that becomes less and less a factor.

I still see no signs of life for the season. #stillwaiting

 

[rdale]

As long as the Great Lakes are so below average in temperature they're going to be sucking those high pressures down from Canada. Sounds like a negative feedback loop?

I've never heard that happening before... You're saying the cold water temperatures "suck" a high pressure system which in turn hurts the chances for storms? In any case, just checked Lake Michigan and the water temps there are warmer than normal. http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif (and even Superior http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/sswt-00.gif )

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Don't worry, the CFS has you covered. Outbreak in early April:

Sorry dude - cap bust.

 

[Adam R Davis]

CFS stands for Crazy F***ing Synopsis.

 

[Michael Gavan]

I thought it was Can't Find Solace in anything else.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Cold Front Systems

 

[calvinkaskey]

Will any of those high winds set anything off along the east coast?

Don't worry, the CFS has you covered. Outbreak in early April:

 

[James Gustina]

Funnily enough it looks like the 12Z GFS made a carbon copy of the setup from March 15, 2014 sometime around next Wednesday. Fool me once.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Will any of those high winds set anything off along the east coast?

Dude that looks like May 31, 1985 all over again!

 

[calvinkaskey]

First F-3 again in NC this year. I'm calling it.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Your credibility is on the line Calvin

 

[rdale]

His what?

 

[Jason Boggs]

credibility

noun cred·i·bil·i·ty \ˌkre-də-ˈbi-lə-tē\

: the quality of being believed or accepted as true, real, or honest