The Tao of forecasting

[Tim Vasquez]

(An interesting parable written years ago...)

Prince Li's forecaster was analyzing a map. His pencil danced upon the weather map. His forecasts had always been faultless.

"I am astonished!" the Prince exclaimed. "Your technique is faultless!"

"Technique?" said the Master, turning from his map. "What I follow is Tao -- beyond all techniques! When I first began to forecast, I would see before me the atmosphere on separate charts. After three years, I no longer saw this. Instead, I saw the atmosphere blended together from all of the different charts, combined in three dimensions within my mind, and compared against the numerical models. Now I see nothing. My whole being exists in a formless void. My senses are idle. My spirit, free to work without a plan, follows its own instinct while I put pencil to paper and sift through all the charts. In short, my forecast produces itself. True, sometimes there are difficult problems. I see them coming, I slow down, I watch silently. Then I focus, use all of the tools available to me, and the difficulties vanish like puffs of idle smoke. I then complete the forecast. I sit still and let the joy of the work fill my being. I close my eyes for a moment and then go home."

Prince Li said, "If only all of my forecasters were as wise!"

 

[Maggie Kahman]

My senses are idle. My spirit, free to work without a plan, follows its own instinct while I put pencil to paper and sift through all the charts.

Hopefully I will one day achieve that status.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Tim, when I saw this thread, I thought you might be referring to this which is a very good read to "enlighten" a forecaster.

http://www.weathergraphics.com/tao.htm

EDIT: Sorry, I just realized that the parable was taken from this link.

 

[Stephen Levine]

Tao of Forecasting

How refreshing it is to see the spiritual aspects of storm hunting and weather forecasting addressed in a thread.
I Love the elements as expressed in the Tao instructions, they are so true!
This has played out for me in the realms of intuition vs. hard data/logic. All too often, while in the field and focused upon the present happenings on radar, a "still small voice within" me declared "hey, let's go here!". This voice seemed so counter logical and non-scientific for my objective, and my internal dialogue would immediatly discount its validity. Ignoring that seemingly senseless voice and staying focused on logic, I then would encounter dissipating or disappointing action at my target site while meantime, the tornado actually decended where my gleeful illogical voice suggested I go.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I'm always loathe to post didactic material but the Maslow thread made me remember the Tao article. Jason Boggs' link is correct... I wrote it several years ago after seeing some of the short-sighted approaches taken by a few hobbyists and even a few professional forecasters. Conversely the Master Forecaster symbolizes the cream-of-the-crop forecasters who were my mentors, and Enlightenment is that ideal forecast process that one struggles to attain.

Tim

 

[Eric Flescher]

I love tao stuff

Thanks for posting. Interesting

::

(An interesting parable written years ago...)

Prince Li's forecaster was analyzing a map. His pencil danced upon the weather map. His forecasts had always been faultless.

"I am astonished!" the Prince exclaimed. "Your technique is faultless!"

"Technique?" said the Master, turning from his map. "What I follow is Tao -- beyond all techniques! When I first began to forecast, I would see before me the atmosphere on separate charts. After three years, I no longer saw this. Instead, I saw the atmosphere blended together from all of the different charts, combined in three dimensions within my mind, and compared against the numerical models. Now I see nothing. My whole being exists in a formless void. My senses are idle. My spirit, free to work without a plan, follows its own instinct while I put pencil to paper and sift through all the charts. In short, my forecast produces itself. True, sometimes there are difficult problems. I see them coming, I slow down, I watch silently. Then I focus, use all of the tools available to me, and the difficulties vanish like puffs of idle smoke. I then complete the forecast. I sit still and let the joy of the work fill my being. I close my eyes for a moment and then go home."

Prince Li said, "If only all of my forecasters were as wise!"

 

[Chad Cowan]

Said the Student: "Show me the way to Enlightenment."
The Master dug through a pile of weather charts and pulled out a satellite photo. "Do you see this?"
"Yes."
"Enter here."

Good stuff, Tim. One thing that I'm guilty of too often is using the models as more than guidance while neglecting real data. Stop this I will.