The Next 'BIG ONE'!

[Bill Tabor]

Considering this is La Nina pattern with some correlaries to the year 1999 and per the OKC Amazing Facts post we've gone a number of years without an F4 or F5 hitting OKC area. I've got some nagging feeling that this year between April 26th and May 6th OKC may be hit. What do you think? Take the poll

 

[Mark Farnik]

Bill, not to burst your bubble but the May 8, 2003 tornado that struck south OKC/Moore and ran a nearly parallel track to the 1999 monster was rated F4. Here is the NCDC record to confirm it...

http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dl...howEvent~516831
It did F4 damage to the General Motors plant.
Though I must admit, OKC going two years without any tornado hits is unusual to say the least.
I'd bet money(if I had any) on at least an F3, if not higher, hitting the southern or western side of OKC in your time frame. The climatological patterns are eerily similar to the pattern in 1999 leading up to the outbreak. If I see any inkling of anything similar to the 1999 Outbreak occurring, I'm going to be taking a few days off of school for sure...

 

[Mike Gauldin]

I think we'll have a better season that last (but this is just about guaranteed). As for OKC getting hit, I'm in for 'yes', but not F4-F5.

 

[Marko Korosec]

I am coming to States (Dallas) on April 27th and then going towards OKC, would be cool to see an F5 already in the first week lol

I also think it will be better season than last year and OKC will be hit, but not with F4 or F5. The time of big hit is imho coming, like Mark said its unsual that OKC wasn't hit for two years by ANY tornado.

 

[Rob Satkus]

Originally posted by Marko Korosec
The time of big hit is imho coming, like Mark said its unsual that OKC wasn't hit for two years by ANY tornado.

There were several tornadoes in Oklahoma County in 2004 and 2005...so there were some close calls. The May 29,2004 beast put down an F2 a few miles northwest of Edmond...there were several small tornadoes in the Spencer and Jones areas just northeast of OKC on Nov 10, 2004 and last year on April 10 an F1 touched down near Harrah. The Storm Data entry for that said it touched down just inside the OKC city limits, so I guess technically there was a tornado in OKC...but just by a hair. That part of "town" is all very rural.

Rob

 

[Bill Tabor]

Originally posted by Mark Farnik
Bill, not to burst your bubble but the May 8, 2003 tornado that struck south OKC/Moore and ran a nearly parallel track to the 1999 monster was rated F4. Here is the NCDC record to confirm it...

Ok, I didn't realize that was an F4, but I do remember it. That was the day I was up near the OK/KS border just north of OKC waiting on something to happen and trying to get data. It was also the day of the thick Mexican smoke making it difficult to tell what was going on. I had just driven through OKC an hour or two before this event and heard about it on the NOAA radio, but no time to return. My cell data setup that year was screwed and I couldn't get it to work. Also missed the cell closer to Red Rock that later moved to Coffeeville. Caught up to it near Coffeeville at dark and saw what appeared to be a small night funnel/tornado right at dark, but was weak and couldn't tell for sure how good it was out in the country.

Gosh I hate that Mexican smoke. If you don't have cell data you also can't even see the clouds. Of course now Threatnet solves that. As I recall that was also the day before OKC was hit again the next night. I was on it that time and got to watch the power flashes. I avoided getting right in front of it so never saw it clearly at night - just intermittently among flashes and lightning.

I still think OKC is open during the time frame though. I may be wrong, but it is just a feeling I have - nothing more. Well, that and some climatology.

Actually, I bet it would have been tough had I remained in OKC with bad visibility. I wonder if I could have seen the storm approaching in all the smoke and manage to find my way out of the path to watch the tornado or end up getting run over by it? For those of you in OKC chasing that day how was it for you? Were you able to get data and track the storm visually? Anyone get any decent pictures? I never heard much about this storm later on.

 

[Mickey Ptak]

Man we all have a lot of faith in Oklahoma City this year. lol. The pole numbers currently show a majority dissing OKC.

Well I agree and thus voted for the last option myself. Statistics me nothing to me so IMO the odds are against OKC being hit by a F4 or F5 in 2006 much less any tornado. Let me put it this way, I would rather not see that happen. 1999 and 2003 where bad enough for me to see. I would rather not see that again in a major populated area (anywhere).
I do think that we will see at least one nice, possably tornadic, cell in the OKC this year though.

The real question is will we see any tornadoes in Oklahoma period. 2005 repeat? Shut up Mick...lol.

Mick

 

[Rob Satkus]

Originally posted by Bill Tabor
For those of you in OKC chasing that day how was it for you? Were you able to get data and track the storm visually? Anyone get any decent pictures? I never heard much about this storm later on.

It was tough...we started out near El Reno and could barely see a thing thanks to the haze. The storm was close enough that we would have normally seen it easily, but had no idea what was going on until we received a phone call from the station. We had to hurry back east to avoid the core and fight trhu traffic to finally get in position on Sooner Road, about 2-3 miles south of I-240...the tornado crossed the I-240/Soon Rd intersection and we never saw a thing. In fact, we didn't know there was a tornado until we came across the damage and chaos moments later. We busted east on I-240 and briefly saw the tornado as it was going thru the Choctaw area, but we didn't get any photo/video because of traffic and other issues. We stayed with the storm until somewhere near Bristow...it was gradually weakening with time, but we were unable to get info from anywhere, so we just stuck with it, not really sure what else to do.

Rob

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Best picture I've seen of the 5/8/03 OKC event is Eric Nguyen's:

 

[Kevin Bowman]

its a bit ridicouls to even say a tornado will hit inside OKC city limitis this year let alone a violent tornado between certain dates

 

[Matthew Havin]

Well, OKC any given year has around a 1/3 chance for getting hit somewhere by a tornado. This will likely increase slighty over time since the metro keeps expanding by tens of square miles every 10 years.

Somewhere in the article it brings up the fact that OKC has been hit 33 times in the last 90 years.

http://www.davisnet.com/news/e_news_archive/9905.asp

 

[Angie Norris]

At the rate things are going now, I forsee chasing duststorms and dust devils. However....I really wouldn't rule out the week of May 8-12 for big things to happen. Why???....because it's finals week! :roll:
Angie

 

[Chris Lott]

Not to change the subject but I was watching It Could Happen Tomorrowthe other night on The Weather Channel about an F-5 hitting Dallas, and I have to say that I think one will hit OKC alot sooner than one will ever hit Dallas. And another thing, why do they call that show It Can Happen Tomorrow? If it's 25 degrees outside and snow on the ground I think a tornado is highly unlikely. They're meteorologists, they should know better LOL :lol: But seriously, I've looked over the whole La Nina event and it depicts more of the south(Tennessee,Kentucky,Alabama,etc) having a banner year. But like others have said 1999 was a La Nina year. I guess you just have to wait and see, but yeah, OKC is overdue. It Could Happen---In May!

 

[Bill Tabor]

Originally posted by Rob Satkus

It was tough...we started out near El Reno and could barely see a thing thanks to the haze. The storm was close enough that we would have normally seen it easily, but had no idea what was going on until we received a phone call from the station. We had to hurry back east to avoid the core and fight trhu traffic to finally get in position on Sooner Road, about 2-3 miles south of I-240...the tornado crossed the I-240/Soon Rd intersection and we never saw a thing. In fact, we didn't know there was a tornado until we came across the damage and chaos moments later. We busted east on I-240 and briefly saw the tornado as it was going thru the Choctaw area, but we didn't get any photo/video because of traffic and other issues. We stayed with the storm until somewhere near Bristow...it was gradually weakening with time, but we were unable to get info from anywhere, so we just stuck with it, not really sure what else to do.

Rob

That does sound tough Rob. Wonder how I would have faired without data and no station to tell me something's up? :lol: Guess it would have been interesting. It's amazing how bad that smoke can get. I seem to recall one reason I went to the OK/KS border is I wanted to get clear of the smoke.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Originally posted by Kevin Bowman
its a bit ridicouls to even say a tornado will hit inside OKC city limitis this year let alone a violent tornado between certain dates

Well I'm not saying it's really scientific. Just a hunch, a feeling. Of course I'm probably wrong, but I just wonder if any others have a feeling on this. That said, stats show that it isn't unreasonable for OKC to get a torn and this is it's peak period that often gets hit. Combine that with possible La Nina potential. Yeah it's a reach - but thinking about it keeps the SDS away and that's what it's all about in February right?