Mike Smith
EF5
My 2¢...
As we move deeper into tornado season 2024, I'm sure everyone wants to make the best forecast possible. So, I'm not certain why so many refer to the GFS. Dr Ryan Maue posted these today and they show just how awful the GFS is -- at times at 1980's levels (really).
In order, the verification stats are better for the ECMWF, UKMET and Canadian than the GFS. I've gotten to the point where I don't even bother to look at the GFS.
I don't have a feel for the AI-ECMWF but I would probably approach it with caution until we have a couple of months under our belts to get a feel for it. In theory, AI in meteorology has a lot of promise but I think we are probably still in the "theory" time period.
Finally, I wish to quote Dr Tom Stewart, then of SUNYA Albany, who did the first-ever studies of human factors in meteorology. Those studies in aviation have revolutionized safety and cockpit order. He found, "meteorologists love more models because they make them feel more confident, but more models do not make them more accurate."
As we move deeper into tornado season 2024, I'm sure everyone wants to make the best forecast possible. So, I'm not certain why so many refer to the GFS. Dr Ryan Maue posted these today and they show just how awful the GFS is -- at times at 1980's levels (really).
In order, the verification stats are better for the ECMWF, UKMET and Canadian than the GFS. I've gotten to the point where I don't even bother to look at the GFS.
I don't have a feel for the AI-ECMWF but I would probably approach it with caution until we have a couple of months under our belts to get a feel for it. In theory, AI in meteorology has a lot of promise but I think we are probably still in the "theory" time period.
Finally, I wish to quote Dr Tom Stewart, then of SUNYA Albany, who did the first-ever studies of human factors in meteorology. Those studies in aviation have revolutionized safety and cockpit order. He found, "meteorologists love more models because they make them feel more confident, but more models do not make them more accurate."