State of the Chase Season 2024

[JamesCaruso]

Unfortunately, both the GEFS and EPS seem to agree on meager moisture at least through 5/19, with the exception of the GEFS for some areas but only east of I-35.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'm booking my first class ticket on PanClovis Airlines tonight!.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

When I was out chasing last year, the Clovis storm on May 24th was the peak of my chase and on my last day too. I've never seen a storm with such ferocity. Bit of enhanced flow over that region and it can definitely still produce the goods.

Having a look at GEFS and EPS, I do tend to agree with James. Fortunately, I don't fly out until 20/05 this year.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The extended forecast for western sectors will be void of any major chase opportunities after Monday's day at the zoo. I'm assuming the next **remote** chance might be next weekend, but it's not looking that exciting ATM. I'm starting to see the dreaded NW flow wording in some NWS discussions. Too early.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

In keeping with the running theme for "classic" southern/central Plains high risks for over a decade now; yesterday proved not great for chasing with the bulk of the significant tornado activity occurring after dark while doing major damage in populated areas.

After a couple of potentially active days in parts of the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley/mid-South, I do think we quiet down for perhaps 10-14 days, which sucks for people who booked tours or chasecations in that timeframe. However even "active" chase seasons always have ebbs and flows, and May can surprise even in a seemingly unfavorable large-scale pattern. I suspect we will have at least one more decent sequence of synoptic-scale days coming down the pipeline in later May through mid-June.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I know y’all are probably sick of me whining, but if I can’t share my frustration with other chasers here, then who else can I vent to that would ever understand how it feels?

I was planning to head out on May 13, right after spending Mothers Day with my wife, and seeing my daughters’ dance recital on Saturday. Their recital is usually a week later in May. So this was going to be the earliest I am able to head out in like 10 years. And yet somehow, incredibly, it’s still not early enough. I feel like I missed all the best action already. Even though yesterday was largely a bust from a chasing perspective, I would have loved to be on the ground for the drama and nervous energy of a day like that. Not to mention 4/26 and several days last week. Every year I say that I will jet out for a big synoptically-evident event forecast days in advance. But I always end up failing to pull the trigger, either because I failed to keep my work or family calendar open enough, feel that it’s a bad time to break away from work on short notice, or just feel like it’s not a sure enough thing to justify the inconvenience, time and money.

For my actual chase trip, I can stay out for over 4 weeks this year, until Fathers Day. It’s not all vacation time; I’ll be working remotely, but still should get more opportunity to chase than ever before, since I started in 1996. But I’m already looking at the first week, maybe even the first two weeks, being in the crapper. Leaving little more than the usual two weeks left by then (if anything happens even then).

Last year I could have stayed on the Plains three weeks. But after just 11 days, it became apparent nothing else was on the horizon for the first half of June. So I just went home. I fear a similar reduction in viable chase time this year.

The years I only had two weeks, I tried to time the best possible pattern. I don’t need to do that this time. My end date is set no matter what. So I might as well just get out there. Even if the pattern’s not the best, it's better than nothing. But on the other hand, I’m not interested in working out of a hotel room by myself for no reason. So if there’s just northwest flow or no flow, I will probably wait a week before heading out.

basing success purely off of capturing tornadoes I think sets people up for failure. I'm spending time and money, am away from family and responsibilities, and I didn't get one darn tornado! , repeat that for several years and I am not surprised people have the attitudes towards it the way they do. I site JamesCaruso as possibly one of those and he can correct me if I am wrong.

Jason wrote the above a week or so ago. Jason, you said to correct you if you’re wrong. You are. For me it’s really not about frustration relative to time and money. It’s profound disappointment over loving something so much, looking forward to it all year, practically having to devise an algorithm to figure out when would be the best time to chase relative to professional and family commitments and weather patterns, only to see it vaporize just as it’s in reach. A small window of opportunity opens, and it closes before you know it, with little to show for it more often than not. This year’s window was supposed to be open longer than ever, but it already seems to be closing. It doesn’t have to be a tornado. But some years, especially recent ones, there aren’t even many supercells that are not HP grunge.

Hopefully the season keeps cranking after just a week or so lull. I’ll be very happy if this post doesn’t age well and I turn out to have been whining for nothing. But if I’m right, I’m already warning my family and work colleagues that they are not going to want to be around me.

 

[Jason N]

I totally respect that!, and I appreciate your response. From the angle of loving a thing, I am in that same boat man. I just don't have the family to have to factor in, but it's just as annoying and sometimes aggravating when you have limited time from work, that's my situation as work defines my life!!.. though it shouldn't, money and living require it!! .. but yeah, I wasn't trying to pick on you, more just jesting to the points I think a lot of us feel, you are just very vocal about it! lol .. not a bad thing at all.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Season seems to be transitioning into the "now typical," late May climatology, dominated by a sudden shift in upper air patterns, void of any favorable opportunities. It's like the storm Gods wake up one morning and say, "Ha Ha! Lets pull the plug on those idiots who waited to chase the once classic late May period!" Gone are the days of gentlemanly transitions from big, fast-moving systems to prolonged periods of sloshing dryline action. Now days, the evolution is: big spring systems -- cutoffs -- zonal -- NW flow -- ridge -- go home.

Nothing in the extended has me logging into my Holiday Inn Express app to make reservations. Looks like some really "far out" convection is possible late this weekend from an anemic-looking cut off low positioned over the four-corners area. Something to watch, but not enough to get me out the door -- yet.

It's still too early to call the rest of the season a bust, but we are approaching the middle of May and none of the models are jiggy about the extended.

 

[Jason N]

by 15 May, I'll have a good idea of what will or "won't" be happening. if it turns into a microcosm of events here and there and last-minute upgrades from marginal to slight, so be it. Less chaser activity, and I will go far and wide to chase near sunset photogenic structure over tubes, even though I am always hoping for it.

 

[Bobby Little]

Somewhat flustrating season for me so far. Spent 2nd week April with a OK/TX bust followed up by nocturnal s ( i dont do) rare early morning La. (was too late). Chasing catch-ups in the Al/Fl panhandle with no success into Florida.
Skipped the big late April event for personal reasons. UGGGGG!!
Chased Michigan yesterday. Thankfull that this chase was in the home state . Even though my initial target was spot on.SW MI. corner , I choose to skip early"initiation" that proved to be better than the my eventual flexible "position.. wait for mode" choice.
I did catch 2 nado storms speeding up to 45-50, lifting to mesos that raced over my head. Not the best choices sooooo far this year.
Will miss the rest of May going to Ireland. Do they have Tornados in Ireland?
hopefully June is Good. good luck to all!

 

[Jason N]

starting to focus on 23 to 1 June time frame. most of the models only take this out to 24May currently.

I used June's NMME precip anomaly, which seemed to line up with the CFS height anomaly for the end of May. I won't speak to whether this is trustworthy, or not, I am putting it here so in a week, I can come back and look to see if the pattern remains consistent, it won't, but it's a short-term archive lol .. but at the moment, it suggests a northern plains signal. (MJO Below)

 

[JamesCaruso]

As of now, there’s almost no chance I am heading out to the Plains on Monday the 13th as originally planned. Euro looks awful through the end of its run on the 19th. Doesn’t look like it would be any better if it went out a few more days either. Tack on the period shown by the maps Jason posted, and the longest-ever 4 week trip I was so excited about appears to already be down to about 2 weeks, and who knows if those will even be any good.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

I could use a break, we have seen 5 tornadoes, but poor decisions and having to be home right before Hawley and Ft. Stockton make my season pale compared to a fair chunk of chasers. Still, being retired has its perks, I love the high plains, so here's hoping late May/June is good, I have a hard time believing this is the end of the season already.

 

[Jeff House]

I'm going to quit the hobby and save for international eclipse trips. If I badmouth it enough, will we get a trough?

CFS and ECMWF weeklies fill that hideous eastern trough late May. Intermittently Plains heights are manageable. Could get some weak systems with mesoscale set-ups. That's normal late May climo. I do believe the above normal activity is going to calm down. Normal in late May is usually pretty workable though.

State of the Balance of the Chase Season is typical 2020s.

 

[Warren Faidley]

You know it's bad when the long range forecasts don't include NW flow events over the SP. So much for plan B.

Plan C is E. Colorado which is still a possibility.

The overall lack of RH out west (and a serious cap) will limit the possibilities of "sneak attacks," which was plan D.

It's looking like a very busy hurricane season, so I might cut my loses and focus on tropical weather which is plan E.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looking like some very long shot, isolated sneak attack potential for the Saturday+ time frame. Not going to analyze the individual soundings on merit, as they are cherry picked and have obvious negative factors besides initiation and isolation that would keep most sensible chasers from pursuing, unless you just "happened to be in the area." However, they do illustrate the "potential" when factoring 40kts of 500mb flow and DP's >50 ºF. in this region.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I didn’t look at Saturday 5/11 or Sunday 5/12 because I can’t be out there anyway, but this morning I did notice some potential for Wednesday 5/15 and also Sunday 5/19 on the Euro. I didn’t go any deeper than a big-picture look at moisture and 500mb flow. Still leaning toward delaying my trip, not sure Wednesday is worth heading out for.

Sunday 5/19 will be a more difficult decision, because I am planning to start my trip then no matter how it looks. That is when my son is able to start his trip; he can’t leave before then because he has to work on Saturday night. If I was already out there, he would fly out to meet me. If I’m not already out there, is Sunday good enough to justify heading out on Saturday without him, and then facing the logistical challenge of having to pick him up at an airport on Monday? Yes, I would have to deal with that anyway if I was out there already. But if I’m not, then I might as well wait just one more day so we can fly out together.

I’ll see how the model scenarios evolve throughout the week. If Sunday looks *really* good, it will be an easier decision to head out on Saturday. Who knows, I may even decide to fly out Tuesday night for Wednesday if Wednesday improves enough.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

GFS/CFS suggestive for a few runs now that some degree of western troughing and southwest flow across the Plains may reemerge in the 5/20-5/23 range. Much TBD about the details that will determine chase day potential of course, but all hope may not yet be lost for you, @JamesCaruso.

 

[JamesCaruso]

This Wednesday 5/15 seems to have some potential in the Fort Stockton area - just looking "big picture" at only moisture and 500mb flow. Next Sunday the 19th no longer looks like anything, but as Andy said Monday the 20th has promise. The Euro shows areas of interest in E CO and the TX PH. GFS agrees on E CO but not the TX PH. I'm not looking beyond that - that's the end of the Euro run, no sense looking at the GFS beyond 10 days (or even within 10 days! )

I don't know how Wednesday will turn out, but I am prepared to write it off and just start my trip a week later than originally planned. It's not worth flying out for Wednesday and then having basically nothing Thursday through Sunday. Also Fort Stockton is one of the most inconvenient places to end up. I'm glad Sunday the 19th appears to be off the table, this way I can just fly out with my son that day to set up for Monday.

 

[Andy Berrington]

Well, if this Hovmoller from the ensemble data is indicative of what's to come (blue = troughing tendency, red = ridging tendency), we may be in for an extended favorable period come the third and fourth weeks of May. Buckle up if that is the case...

 

[Dan Robinson]

GEFS ensembles still show a slight bias toward western troughing (or at least zonal flow) beginning on the 20th with corresponding daily SCP spikes, though the individual members are all over the place (per the spaghetti plots). The Euro shows a compact shortwave trying to eject over the Plains around that time, but it's been slowing it down and plotting northerly flow over the Gulf ahead of it.

The upside is there's no death ridge or mega-eastern trough showing up (yet). 30kt+ zonal flow works, as long as we have moisture.

 

[JamesCaruso]

At this point I am flying out on Sun 5/19 no matter what. My main concern is if Mon 5/20 is a chase day, and if so, where. The flip in the models is maddening. Look at each of these depictions for 7pm CDT on Mon 5/20. Yesterday evening's runs of the Euro and GFS were somewhat aligned:



But with the 12Z run this morning, the Euro flipped and looks terrible.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Not sure if I buy those models ATM, lots of insanity after the 19th. I'm only watching 55 ºF+ DP's at 00Z and any 40mph+ UL flow this time of year.

 

[Jeff House]

May 20-May 31:

Some of the AI versions of the NWP models have a Northern Rockies trough with ridging east of the Mississippi River. A possible jet extension and pull-back could happen, per Asia and North America pressure trends, but I'm not enthusiastic about such a bullish scenario.

I see some MJO hype on Xitter, but the satellite photos are not talking to me. Indian Ocean to West Pac. looks muddled to me. Plus those MJO standing wave forecasts are notoriously unreliable. Standard ensembles (EPS GEFS) are meh.

Weekly products ECMWF and CFS may provide a more reasonable middle ground. No classic Rockies trough East ridge, but they show good flow through the Heartland. Texas ridging could cause warm mid-levels. Farther north precip. anomalies are positive.

State of the season (late May) I will say ticked up over the weekend.

 

[Brett Roberts]

As we ride out this mid-season lull, I have to say paradoxically that 2024's early season was simultaneously above-average in quality and yet also the most disappointing I've seen in 19 years of chasing.

The number of "wasted troughs" over the past 6 weeks that were in the textbook, synoptically evident realm was simply staggering. It had to be something like 6-8 such troughs that kicked out over the Plains between March 24-May 6 but were either slightly mis-timed, had Gulf moisture swept out three days beforehand, had an inexplicable blob of 30s dews appear along the dryline at 18z... on and on and on.

The only caveat is that one of the most impressive such troughs did produce the April 26 E NE/W IA outbreak, which is arguably the most impressive the Plains have seen in 12 years. I'm not going to diminish the significance of that event: it offered the most storms with highly visible strong daytime tornadoes in many years, with the potential for a career chase day if you played it well. But that sequence still pretty much blanked the core of the traditional Plains alley, with big daytime busts the day before and after that in KS/OK/TX.

It goes without saying that March-April are known for big troughs that fail to produce major outbreaks due to the innate scarcity of moisture early in the spring. But I still can't get over how many quality troughs came our way the past couple months. We've gone years without seeing more than a few of those trough ejections at any time during spring, and the way things have gone the past decade, we probably will again now.