State of the Chase Season 2024

[Warren Faidley]

Long rage models are in generally good agreement in keeping western sectors precipitation free for the rest of the month. As previously discussed, this could / will effect dryline placement and create possible visibility issues further east and NE due to dust. Some hits of a change in early May, but I would not count on it ATM.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I try not to look at long-range models; since my chase trips are largely fixed in time, I would only be torturing myself about missing stuff before I can get out there, or seeing unfavorable indicators for when I can. But yesterday I just happened upon a Tornado Titans video that was bullish on mean southwest flow from late next week into early May. It further noted that it might turn less favorable in mid-May - you know, exactly when my chase trip begins…

Although they did suggest southwest flow would return after a brief lull in mid-May, and that the month looked pretty good overall, perhaps the best since 2018 or 2019.

I haven’t corroborated this with any of my own analysis; for the reasons noted above, I was sorry I even saw this! And of course we all know the long-range outlooks are of dubious value anyway. But sharing this FWIW, and curious as to others’ perspectives.

 

[Jeff House]

James I don't see anything too concerning on the long-range models or weeklies. Not that they are very valuable past week 3, but it's nice when they don't show a ridge train wreck. They don't.

Before Mother's Day the southwest flow looks to visit off and on. Mother's Day seems like a good dividing day since it's a PDS family day.

After that going into mid-May there's nothing wrong with the pattern, no big Plains ridge or East trough. One could infer split flow, which is just par for the El Nino course. Nino is fading but it'll take a bit. Plus the -TNI also contributes to slop. Still that would allow modest to moderate flow, systems, and chances.

CFS and ECMWF weekly products agree with the above. GEFS weekly, which I don't trust farther than I can throw the rack of servers, is ridgy. Don't worry it's wrong!

State of the Chase Season looks average to me and slightly above average starting this weekend through Mother's Day. Keep in mind Average in late May is still plenty of action.

 

[Derek Weston]

Haven't spent a ton of time on the long range models... but GFS certainly is thinking the next two weeks are going to be really active. Although the moisture is a bit of concern.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Models are still hinting of favorable westward intrusions of decent RH during the first week of May onward. This, along with favorable upper air configurations via NCEP models, make me increasingly positive about the first week in May+. In other words, the overall outlook would appear to be better than the last few years.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Models are still hinting of favorable westward intrusions of decent RH during the first week of May onward. This, along with favorable upper air configurations via NCEP models, make me increasingly positive about the first week in May+. In other words, the overall outlook would appear to be better than the last few years.

Just hope the second half of May will also be good. I guess to @Jeff House ‘s point above, even just an average second half (peak climatology) should mean at least as much activity as an above-average late April / early May. I just start to get very concerned when I see a lot of early activity. It always makes me paranoid that it means an early end to the season. Although, it always stuck with me what @Jeff Duda noted a few years ago, the concept that the atmosphere can indeed “use up” its troughs for the season; there’s only so many times it can reload. Jeff maybe you can weigh in on that again, it’s been awhile, I’m sure I’m missing a ton of technical nuance, and many of our newer members could benefit from your insights there!

Of course, if the Plains were dead right now, we’d all be worrying about what *that* meant for the rest of the season…. So that’s the optimistic view, that these are early signs of a better season this year. And even IF the atmosphere is spent on the bigger troughs and outbreaks early on, the more subtle mesoscale setups can make for some of the best chase days later in the season anyway.

 

[Jason N]

Models are still hinting of favorable westward intrusions of decent RH during the first week of May onward. This, along with favorable upper air configurations via NCEP models, make me increasingly positive about the first week in May+. In other words, the overall outlook would appear to be better than the last few years.

I think your thoughts on visibility will be put to the test somewhat this week, lol

 

[Jeff Duda]

Although, it always stuck with me what @Jeff Duda noted a few years ago, the concept that the atmosphere can indeed “use up” its troughs for the season; there’s only so many times it can reload. Jeff maybe you can weigh in on that again, it’s been awhile, I’m sure I’m missing a ton of technical nuance, and many of our newer members could benefit from your insights there!

Unfortunately, I have nothing new to add to this. This is simply a semi-empirical observation that may not have any roots in science. It may or may not be true. As far as I know, there's no physical law that prevents a certain rate of trough formations and passages over a given location on Earth.

My own sense so far is that we haven't seen a ton of big springtime troughs roll through the central US. No big Dixie Alley outbreaks. This would tend to suggest that the Plains may be "due" for a more active year. But take that possibly freezing-cold take with a few atoms of NaCl.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just hope the second half of May will also be good. I guess to @Jeff House ‘s point above, even just an average second half (peak climatology) should mean at least as much activity as an above-average late April / early May. I just start to get very concerned when I see a lot of early activity. It always makes me paranoid that it means an early end to the season. Although, it always stuck with me what @Jeff Duda noted a few years ago, the concept that the atmosphere can indeed “use up” its troughs for the season; there’s only so many times it can reload. Jeff maybe you can weigh in on that again, it’s been awhile, I’m sure I’m missing a ton of technical nuance, and many of our newer members could benefit from your insights there!

Of course, if the Plains were dead right now, we’d all be worrying about what *that* meant for the rest of the season…. So that’s the optimistic view, that these are early signs of a better season this year. And even IF the atmosphere is spent on the bigger troughs and outbreaks early on, the more subtle mesoscale setups can make for some of the best chase days later in the season anyway.

I'm also hoping for a solid second half of May as well James, given I fly out May 20th. I see nothing to be concerned about at this stage, all medium-long range modelling suggests troughiness out west to some extent. All you need during the second half of May really is broad SW-W'ly flow to kick up the goods. Models however maybe beginning to hint at a slightly less active period/southerly tracking jet around 2nd week of May.

 

[JamesCaruso]

@Jeff House one of your earlier posts above had me feeling better about not heading out until mid-May until I saw your post over in the 4/25/24 Events thread!

“I'm afraid this could be 'the sequence' that seems to happen in April instead of May recent years. Thursday kicks off days through Sunday.”

 

[Andy Wehrle]

One of the things to like about the next several days is that there are plenty of legit targets each day to spread out chasers...no guarantee they will all verify of course, but there are several that look potentially good each tomorrow, Friday and Saturday.

 

[Jeff House]

Well @JamesCaruso I'm not as concerned now. Yes this weekend has another couple good days. However yesterday is like the 3rd inning of baseball - once through the order - and none of my player props have hits. Sports metaphors are sometimes all I have. Glad I didn't wager!

Looks like another trough swings through right around the 1st of May and might yield 2-3 days. Too early for details, just that another Plains trough is forecast. Right now it doesn't look too inspiring. Though with zonal flow (forecast) subtle setups can become apparent closer to time.

Then the middle of May could be that down week Quincy used to write about. Just as well with Mother's Day PDS family weekend.

Finally late May is nebulous on the weeklies. The one good news, no death ridge is forecast. State of the Chase season remains good.

 

[Warren Faidley]

If one trusts the models anymore, it would appear that a front dives down through the CP's and disrupts Gulf RH trough at least the first week in May. Some of this is logical given it's not an unusual occurrence this time of year behind departing systems. The question becomes how soon quality RH recovers northwards and the timing of the next trough, as Jeff noted above. Since I generally devote about 30 days to this adventure, any May delay will allow some time for CO chasing and a few West Texas sneak attacks. Hopefully, we will not all be sucked back into the Clovis Triangle of doom this season!

 

[Jason N]

Well, after today adlyons just may be reporting above average numbers !

 

[JamesCaruso]

Since I generally devote about 30 days to this adventure, any May delay will allow some time for CO chasing and a few West Texas sneak attacks. Hopefully, we will not all be sucked back into the Clovis Triangle of doom this season!

I’m devoting about the same amount of time this year. After 25 years, this is the first season I will be able to devote more than two weeks. It won’t be all vacation time. It’s basically taking advantage of being able to work remotely. Instead of taking two weeks off, which may or may not be fruitful, I’ll take off as needed. The way to think of it is, spreading 10 PTO days over a month instead of wagering them on a fixed period. And hopefully I’ll squeak out more chase days in total since I’ll have weekends and the possibility of working at least half the day before chasing in the afternoon/evening. This does mean blowing off some marginal days that I would have chased if I was only there for two weeks, because I can’t just take unlimited time off all month...

My end date in mid-June is pretty much set, so delaying my start (May 13) doesn’t help me. I would only delay if it looked like a complete death ridge. No reason sitting in some hotel by myself just waiting for conditions to improve.

Almost feels anti-climactic already, with the best event of the season (and for the next who knows how many years) most likely already behind us. But you can only chase one supercell at a time anyway, and it only takes one tornado encounter to make it a great day, or even a career day. No way it makes sense to lose hope when May hasn’t even started yet! But it sure is hard not to feel like I’m late to the party already…

 

[Jason N]

I am seeing this pattern with you when it comes to your chase season chat @JamesCaruso (Positive Realistic Negativity) hahaha

I’m devoting about the same amount of time this year. After 25 years, this is the first season I will be able to devote more than two weeks.

POSITIVE

My end date in mid-June is pretty much set, so delaying my start (May 13) doesn’t help me. I would only delay if it looked like a complete death ridge.

REALISITC

Almost feels anti-climactic already, with the best event of the season (and for the next who knows how many years) most likely already behind us.

NEGATIVITY

 

[AndrewHamm]

Any predictions for the next couple of weeks? I'm pretty unexperienced, but its looking to me like the start of May looks active followed by a short lull possibly starting around May 14? Around May 7 looks like a potential severe day by some models, but its still far out to decide that yet.

 

[John Farley]

Hopefully, we will not all be sucked back into the Clovis Triangle of doom this season!

I'd actually be fine with that. A lot less driving than what I have done the last 4 days going as far as central OK, from my base in the 4 Corners region, and even if they don't produce tornadoes, storms in NM and southeast CO are always photogenic. I did not get any tornadoes last year, at least no definitive ones, but it was my top year ever for storm structure and hail video.

 

[Jason N]

I'd actually be fine with that. A lot less driving than what I have done the last 4 days going as far as central OK, from my base in the 4 Corners region, and even if they don't produce tornadoes, storms in NM and southeast CO are always photogenic. I did not get any tornadoes last year, at least no definitive ones, but it was my top year ever for storm structure and hail video.

It's a notable point, basing success purely off of capturing tornadoes I think sets people up for failure. I'm spending time and money, am away from family and responsibilities, and I didn't get one darn tornado! , repeat that for several years and I am not surprised people have the attitudes towards it the way they do. I site JamesCaruso as possibly one of those and he can correct me if I am wrong. (For the record I am not poking fun AT him with earlier comments I made, just keeping it light in jest), but I think his sentiments about chasing are certainly possible in a lot of people with reason. you go spend time and effort and potentially thousands with no return on investment and I can see where it would grate on your perception and eagerness to keep doing it year after year. So, I actually understand James's feelings to.


Since the majority of us aren't out there to make money, just to spend it having the best time we can safely, the pursuit of structure and hopefully a tornado should be enough, shouldn't it? (shrug) .. but like Warren has said in past conversations on this kind of thought, a good steak, good memories, no accidents or run-ins with "The Hoard", are also an important element to this lifestyle whether successful or not.

 

[Jeff House]

Ope! I spoke too soon before the 2nd and 3rd rounds through the batting order.

This week forecast still lines up. At least I got that going for my post.

...Yes this weekend has another couple good days. However yesterday is like the 3rd inning of baseball - once through the order - and none of my player props have hits. Sports metaphors are sometimes all I have. Glad I didn't wager!

Looks like another trough swings through right around the 1st of May and might yield 2-3 days. Too early for details, just that another Plains trough is forecast. Right now it doesn't look too inspiring. Though with zonal flow (forecast) subtle setups can become apparent closer to time.

Then the middle of May could be that down week Quincy used to write about. Just as well with Mother's Day PDS family weekend.

Finally late May is nebulous on the weeklies. The one good news, no death ridge is forecast. State of the Chase season remains good.

Signals conflict around and after Mother's Day. Could be another trough. It would set up a major PDS conflict with the family weekend.

Yeah I stand with James! When one travels long distance, we expect tornadoes. No, not every day! I'm OK going 1 for 3, batting about .333 if I take a trip for a classic standing wave trough in the Rockies, SW flow over the Plains, LLJ response each day, etc. That's all one can forecast when the decision point in time comes to travel. Just have to hope and pray about the surface!

I don't take as many days as James, maybe a week total, 3 travel days and 3-4 chase days. One travel day out, but I need two back due to time zones and chaser exhaustion. OK apathy about returning to normal life too! Another James thing that's 110% true. So one tornado is a successful trip. I'm just asking for one! Hopefully it'll be one tornado day, cyclical with multiple tornadoes. Alternative is a long-tracker. Two short tornado days is fine also. If I can get just 20 tornado minutes, it's a successful trip. Otherwise, yeah it was a waste of time money and energy.

 

[Jamie H]

It probably depends on where you're at with your chasing journey as well. Given how far I will need to travel, I know well in advance that seeing storms, especially with beautiful structure, will be a win. Tornadoes are the ultimate goal, but if I expect little then I shouldn't be as disappointed if I don't see one.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Eyeing the major system forecast to slam into the Plains around the 6-7th. time frame as a starting date. The models are just getting within range to be of some reasonable value. There is agreement in the 126 hr. range of a buzz saw low moving ashore. We know what this could mean for the Plains by the 6-7th.

The only problem is what happens after this event. Some models want to kill things off for at least a week afterwards, with poor RH recovery. I'm not buying that solution ATM.





Near Liberal, KS on 4-6-24 at 00z.

 

[Cameron L.]

Warren, I have been thinking the same thing as of looking at the models today (was away for the weekend and couldn't catch up until now) - May 6th/7th looks like something will happen though it's fairly up in the air as to where the event will occur (especially for the 7th).

However, as someone who has a chasecation timeframe of May 7-May 15th (with no option to change due to other commitments), I'm becoming really worried about the timeframe beyond May 7th, models are extremely mixed on what could happen - either a series of events, or the moisture gets swept south for a week straight and absolutely nothing happens.

There is so much variation between ECMWF and GFS, and even large variation within run-to-run models of the GFS itself, I have no confidence in it's output. @Warren Faidley - why are you not buying the solution of poor RH recovery? I'm still new to long-range model interpretation so I'm sure I'm missing a lot of nuance behind the current models.

 

[AndrewHamm]

Warren, I have been thinking the same thing as of looking at the models today (was away for the weekend and couldn't catch up until now) - May 6th/7th looks like something will happen though it's fairly up in the air as to where the event will occur (especially for the 7th).

However, as someone who has a chasecation timeframe of May 7-May 15th (with no option to change due to other commitments), I'm becoming really worried about the timeframe beyond May 7th, models are extremely mixed on what could happen - either a series of events, or the moisture gets swept south for a week straight and absolutely nothing happens.

There is so much variation between ECMWF and GFS, and even large variation within run-to-run models of the GFS itself, I have no confidence in it's output. @Warren Faidley - why are you not buying the solution of poor RH recovery? I'm still new to long-range model interpretation so I'm sure I'm missing a lot of nuance behind the current models.

I'm in the same boat as you man. I'm chasing May 6-14. Pumped for the likelihood of a setup on the 6-7, but also very concerned on moisture afterwards. I would love to hear more thoughts about the long range after May 7.

 

[Warren Faidley]

@Warren Faidley - why are you not buying the solution of poor RH recovery? I'm still new to long-range model interpretation so I'm sure I'm missing a lot of nuance behind the current models.

Don't know for sure but the ECEP models do not show any funky blocks or other disruptive patterns like we have seen in recent years. I don't see any synoptic patterns ATM that would push RH to the Yucatan. RH can recover amazingly fast this time of year. A lot will depend on how the "6th" event unfolds.