State of the Chase Season 2024

[Warren Faidley]

Starting to see multiple models (and runs) suggesting a seasonal return of RH pushing N/NW into the Texas Panhandle by mid-April. For me, this has generally been a good sign for dryline placement as we head into late April and May. We will see.

 

[adlyons]

Agreed, Warren. The frequency of deep and disruptive frontal intrusions has really started to slow in the last few weeks as we approach the climatological moisture return window. There's been some hints on weekly averaged guidance of higher than average dewpoints into the higher terrain of the Panhandle and High Plains. As you suggest, this could be a good sign for general dryline placement this year.



There also continue to be some good global signs for active troughing in the West/Southwest in the coming weeks. The image below is an experimental 300 mb analog forecast using filtered OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) which is tracking MJO features. It has really locked in on a period of enhanced sub-tropical troughing over the southwest US from mid/late April through May. While I'm not crazy about some potential split flow, the high latitude blocking could be really beneficial for downstream ridging (aka moisture return and trough phasing) as we approach peak season. The strong NPJ could also be really beneficial for an active and energetic southern storm track. Link to this and other experiential stuff from UAlbany is here. Link to Albany Wave Page

 

[Jeff Duda]

I hope you're right, because the precip and soil moisture anomalies in the SGP dryline region in both the short and longer term don't exactly look favorable for an active period.

30-day % of normal:

90-day %:


0-10-cm soil moisture percentile:

0-100-cm pctl:


The dynamical forecasts don't indicate much hope either:


</Debbie downer>

 

[Andy Wehrle]

As of this time last year I'd been on two chases, saw the most epic tornado of my career the first time and busted hard the second time. This year I have yet to chase, but there has been a strong tornado 20 miles from my apartment on a day when the dewpoint was about 47, go figure. One thing's for sure, no two seasons are alike and each brings something unexpected.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

If last year has taught us anything, it's useless worrying too much about soil moisture content this early in the season. Things looked bleak over the high plains right into May, then the pattern flipped and we ended up with a banner year on the high plains.

 

[AndrewHamm]

Any updates on the season? I'm planning on going down to tornado alley either April 21-30 or May 6-14. Any thoughts on which might be more active? Thanks!

 

[Todd Lemery]

A little off topic, but ALWAYS pick May over April. The middle of May is generally the peak for Southern plains chasing.

 

[adlyons]

Any updates on the season? I'm planning on going down to tornado alley either April 21-30 or May 6-14. Any thoughts on which might be more active? Thanks!

May is almost always the safer bet for severe weather prospects. General forecast remains on track with no changes. Expect a general increase in severe chances from now through May.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

GFS/CFS have occasionally hinted at a potential bigger day or string of days somewhere from the southern Plains to the Midwest in the April 15th-20th timeframe, only to back off every other run.

As we saw with last year March 31, early season events can be huge but they also tend to be one-and-done with highly progressive systems and rapidly changing patterns. 3/30/23 had held some conditional all-hazards potential in the southern Plains, but it went unrealized with the trough lagging too far west that day for the forcing/height falls to overspread the warm sector during peak heating and break the cap.

 

[Jeff Duda]

A little off topic, but ALWAYS pick May over April. The middle of May is generally the peak for Southern plains chasing.

Except in years ending in prime numbers and after a La Nina, but only if there's a blue moon within three months AFTER (not surrounding) May.

In those months you want to pick June...

...except in years in which Inigo Montoya found his father's killer OR the sum of the digits in the year adds up to a prime number, but only when the month features either a 23rd/30th or 24th/31st sixth Sunday on standard calendars (ya know, those months that span six rows of a calendar because the 1st was on like a Saturday or something). If not that, then you probably should focus on March...

...unless there were at least two solar eclipses of any kind the year before...THEN you want to focus on...

 

[Jason N]

Hahaha, sarcasm much Jeff?!

 

[Jason N]

May is almost always the safer bet for severe weather prospects. General forecast remains on track with no changes. Expect a general increase in severe chances from now through May.

I personally think we just keep an eye on what the 500mb trough/ridge setup will be for May/June. Keep it simple to where storm track most likely will be. Let the rest sort itself out. We can fine tune inside 2 weeks and less

 

[Mike Smith]

Is it me, or is the SPC having a really tough year to date?

Tornado watch yesterday; zero reports. Tornado watch this morning; zero reports. And, we are seeing "no reports" in 10% hatched areas.

Thoughts?

 

[Jamie H]

Is it me, or is the SPC having a really tough year to date?

Tornado watch yesterday; zero reports. Tornado watch this morning; zero reports. And, we are seeing "no reports" in 10% hatched areas.

Thoughts?

Well, it seems the SPC and regional offices are damned if they do, and damned if they dont? This probably is off topic for this thread, but I see criticism of them when they haven't put out a watch or warning, so if they do put one out and nothing comes of it, is that a bad thing?

If conditions were there for tornadoes, a watch seems appropriate, and if there are no actual tornadoes, that's a good thing for those living in those areas.

 

[Jason N]

This probably is off topic for this thread,

a good topic for a separate thread, but I think an interesting discussion if your FAR goes too high, or is there such a thing as too high for Tornado FAR's

 

[Sean Ramsey]

Is it me, or is the SPC having a really tough year to date?

Tornado watch yesterday; zero reports. Tornado watch this morning; zero reports. And, we are seeing "no reports" in 10% hatched areas.

Thoughts?

Just an observation and nothing more, but it seems they have been more aggressive in assigning areas of tornado risk within expected linear events this year as if they're recognizing the QLCS tornado threat a bit more? If it were the case (and I'm not saying it is, like I said just a guess) it would be hard to verify the forecast success rate since most occur so quickly and rarely cause substantial damage.

 

[adlyons]

Is it me, or is the SPC having a really tough year to date?

Tornado watch yesterday; zero reports. Tornado watch this morning; zero reports. And, we are seeing "no reports" in 10% hatched areas.

Thoughts?

All LSRs (and lack thereof) are preliminary.

 

[Mike Smith]

With regard to Lyons' (above map) report, those tornadoes occurred hours after the tornado watch in question expired.

Regarding the map, the tornado northwest of Houston occurred in a severe thunderstorm watch. It wasn't until later a tornado watch was issued.

 

[adlyons]

With regard to Lyons' (above map) report, those tornadoes occurred hours after the tornado watch in question expired.

Regarding the map, the tornado northwest of Houston occurred in a severe thunderstorm watch. It wasn't until later a tornado watch was issued.

Once again, info is preliminary. We see red dots fill in several days after events. Judge a forecast not, until all relevant info is available.

 

[Warren Faidley]

It seems the main culprit of forecasting accuracy this year centers around warm sector storm behavior and capping. A lot of people were comparing the outbreak potential on April 2, to the 1974 Super Outbreak, although the Super Outbreak had a monster, loaded gun cap, which April 2nd did not.

 

[Jason N]

I've noticed this with a few systems as well and a lot of it seems to be related to moisture overload, excessive debris cloud, and low/mid/high jet orientations modifying the moisture dynamics. it seems that the jet orientations near coastal systems have a fairly fine line of meridional to zonal flows which will create either heavy moisture Linear or QLCS structures, vs. more zonal westerly jets that present just enough EML to change modes rapidly and also decrease the heavier cloud debris from previous days convection, which is what I like to key in on when comparing events like this to the super outbreak in 2011.

 

[Randy Jennings]

Is it me, or is the SPC having a really tough year to date?

I think if we are honest, a lot of folks - myself included - are not having the greatest stats this year. But it is early in the season and much like my Texas Rangers who are 9-8 (.529) there is a lot of season left (after all we are only 17 games into the season and have 145 left). It occurred to me during my under preforming chase yesterday in NW Texas that this is a season of persistence and patience. This isn't a season - at least yet- where we get day after day of great setups that produce. We have a year so far that is both similar and unlike the taco watch/warning graphic that explain watch vs warning. Yesterday we had all the ingredients in place but instead of getting a beautiful delicious taco we got a messy plate that looks like my dining room table and floor after my kids eat dinner. I don't fault SPC for issuing a tornado watch yesterday (4/15) in TX. It was the right call. Just a little different and it would have been a much bigger day.

On a side note, my Texas Rangers are leading the AL West, even with just a .529. The AL West isn't pretty. This season isn't pretty for chasers so far. If we give up now, we will miss the big events that will come. You miss 100% of the setups you don't chase.

 

[Jason N]

Just looking at the rest of the month from GFS to CFS, it kind of feels like April might come in below average, ( Adlyons will surely fill that in ), but there may be some changes towards the end of the month into early may where SE ridging comes into play and sets up a better SFC and JET level synoptic pattern which "seems" to line with the earlier NMME I posted for May. Only a little more time will tell.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I've always considered April 15th as the official start of my chase season and anything captured before then is a kind of bonus. For plains chasers, if you happen to get a chase in February it's a gift, if you get 2-3 chases in March it's a blessing, and although the activity sees an uptick in early April, storm modes can go either way but it's great to just be able to chase consistently. Yesterday was a kind of an official kickoff to the season for me and the slow moving beauty days lay just ahead.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Staff note
The talk about the validation of SPC forecasts is off topic for this thread. Please refrain from discussing it further here, and instead start a new thread on the topic.