Jason N
EF5
your point about 16/17, now I am considering extending my trip by a day, but also considered SD as the lesser obvious spot, less "hoardy" hahaha
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State of the Chase Season 2023
- Thread starter adlyons
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Warren Faidley
Supporter
Complicated forecast for Sunday though the middle of next week. I'll prepare for an air attack, but I want to see a few more model runs. My main concern is DL placement, atmos. recovery for multiple day event, cap and HP potential. I'm thinking there will be excellent sleeper events away from the straight line hodos with obscenely high RH values, maybe target CO or NE. Could actually be a couple of high end, dangerous events for mid-June.
Jason N
EF5
JamesCaruso
Staff member
I have been considering a possible return for the Friday 6/9 - Wednesday 6/14 timeframe, but I am almost certainly bailing on the idea at this point. If I had not been out yet, I would certainly go for it. But it's going to be difficult to break away from work again so soon after having taken most of two weeks off. Therefore, the bar is higher for me, given the level of personal/professional disruption of going back out. If it looked like there would be great chasing Fri/Sat/Sun, it might be worth coming out for that, and dealing with the weekdays when the time comes... But I'm not seeing that. Here are my thoughts based on a very quick and superficial look at the 12Z GFS (12Z Euro not yet available on PivotalWeather), but take with a grain of salt because I'm biased toward finding reasons *not* to chase given the personal/professional considerations. Again, if I had the opportunity to come out without issue, or if it was a question of "take a chase vacation or not," I would definitely go for it. Also I am still always learning so if anyone thinks I'm completely off the wall with this rundown don't hesitate to tell me so!
Sat - maybe some action in OK but east of I-35
Sun - possible sleeper chances in southeast CO? Parameters nothing special, but could be a chase day at least, and magic tends to happen there
Mon - this looks like the best day to me, at least in traditional chase territory; dryline in TX PH, but not the best orientation; dry punch near ABI? Negatives include weak LLJ, possible capping concerns, trough axis way back in southern CA / Baja so lift may be limited?
Tue - could be a big day but the best moisture is shunted east, chasing likely to be mostly in the trees of OK east of I-35?
Wed - back to NW flow, maybe a little more zonal in south TX but moisture shunted to eastern TX
Not looking beyond this because even if I had stayed out there, I would have to get home on the 15th (or maybe early on the 16th, but then my range would be limited on the 15th anyway...)
Sat - maybe some action in OK but east of I-35
Sun - possible sleeper chances in southeast CO? Parameters nothing special, but could be a chase day at least, and magic tends to happen there
Mon - this looks like the best day to me, at least in traditional chase territory; dryline in TX PH, but not the best orientation; dry punch near ABI? Negatives include weak LLJ, possible capping concerns, trough axis way back in southern CA / Baja so lift may be limited?
Tue - could be a big day but the best moisture is shunted east, chasing likely to be mostly in the trees of OK east of I-35?
Wed - back to NW flow, maybe a little more zonal in south TX but moisture shunted to eastern TX
Not looking beyond this because even if I had stayed out there, I would have to get home on the 15th (or maybe early on the 16th, but then my range would be limited on the 15th anyway...)
Warren Faidley
Supporter
If not for the comradery of hanging out with my chase friends every year for a few weeks, enjoying Weller and steaks, I'd likely move on to targeted hits. The cost of a week or more of "so-so" chasing is close to the cost of flying in for a few days... with much better results. I will likely make one Dixie Alley High Risk chase next year just to say I did it. (I also have a good drone so trees are no longer a factor).
The latest models are ejecting the aforementioned system quicker than previously forecast, so any chase forecast would need to consider this trend for DL placement into the Mekong Delta regions of OK, in addition to the possibility of typical June MCS thugs peeing in the pool for day 2+. I still have zero doubt there will be tornadoes, but I'm not convinced yet the locations will be easy to forecast or they won't be hidden in HP crud.
The latest models are ejecting the aforementioned system quicker than previously forecast, so any chase forecast would need to consider this trend for DL placement into the Mekong Delta regions of OK, in addition to the possibility of typical June MCS thugs peeing in the pool for day 2+. I still have zero doubt there will be tornadoes, but I'm not convinced yet the locations will be easy to forecast or they won't be hidden in HP crud.
Jeff House
Supporter
I tend to agree next week is a possibility for those who waited until June. However it may not be a candidate for a double dip chase trip.
That said, one day during the work week might churn out some Enhanced material. Stout 500 mb flow creates a quality LLJ response. If main boundary intersections stay north of the cap, it would be a day. This might come together northeast of the central Plains, anywhere from northern Missouri to Illinois. SPC talks about the Mid-South but it's a little out of climo.
Weekend including the already outlooked Saturday has challenges. Saturday could be MCS east or just in time JIT moisture return far west. JIT should work this time of year, but positioning for Sunday could be a challenge. One could go for Colorado. Otherwise Sunday looks KCMO east.
Yeah I got out of chrono order. Back to next work week, one would expect fewer chase crowds too -especially deeper into June. SPC talks about the Southeast, but again climo glares. IL/IN/OH makes more sense; just hope better terrain north IL/IN and west OH. Late next week the Northern Plains could have northwest flow action. Yeah the targets are all over the place.
My Tennessee location might bias me, but I kind of hope for some midweek IL/IN stuff. That bigger slower wave could put together a pair of days in the same region, vs 3 states apart. I'm not holding my breath though, ha!
That said, one day during the work week might churn out some Enhanced material. Stout 500 mb flow creates a quality LLJ response. If main boundary intersections stay north of the cap, it would be a day. This might come together northeast of the central Plains, anywhere from northern Missouri to Illinois. SPC talks about the Mid-South but it's a little out of climo.
Weekend including the already outlooked Saturday has challenges. Saturday could be MCS east or just in time JIT moisture return far west. JIT should work this time of year, but positioning for Sunday could be a challenge. One could go for Colorado. Otherwise Sunday looks KCMO east.
Yeah I got out of chrono order. Back to next work week, one would expect fewer chase crowds too -especially deeper into June. SPC talks about the Southeast, but again climo glares. IL/IN/OH makes more sense; just hope better terrain north IL/IN and west OH. Late next week the Northern Plains could have northwest flow action. Yeah the targets are all over the place.
My Tennessee location might bias me, but I kind of hope for some midweek IL/IN stuff. That bigger slower wave could put together a pair of days in the same region, vs 3 states apart. I'm not holding my breath though, ha!
Brett Nickeson
EF2
March and April: Iowa
Late May and June: NM, TX, and Dixie.
Someone please reset the weather it's broken.
Late May and June: NM, TX, and Dixie.
Someone please reset the weather it's broken.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
That is absolutely true… But I do enjoy the cadence of the “chasing lifestyle” for a week or more, and it is very difficult to manage things at work with the level of unpredictability that quick hits require. Also, coming from the east coast with direct flights only to DFW or DEN, travel alone could add two days to every trip.
This reads as pretty hilarious way to describe this system to me, and accurate.
This 'trough' continues to trend faster and degrade in quality and tilt with almost every run, and seems to be avoiding overspreading deep moisture and veering except over the worst terrain. I'll hope for maybe a shortwave day or two next week or secondary target in Colorado on Tuesday, but I won't be patrolling the Red River. If Northern Plains don't have any opportunities within another week or two, my attention is likely to start to wander to other summer hobbies.
gdlewen
EF4
I know it's early, but Saturday, June 10 just came into range of the NAM and I would like to know what others think, because I am very interested in what I see: strong moisture convergence and high EHI values. I haven't analyzed capping yet, so that remains to be seen. This plot overlays moisture flux convergence and EHI. Thoughts?
JamesCaruso
Staff member
I believe the NAM tends to be over-exuberant with moisture, although GFS and Euro also support high dews in eastern OK and eastern TX on Saturday. GFS pulls moisture much less farther west. In any event, I think the moisture depth may be somewhat shallow. Bigger issues to me are weak surface winds, and lack of a sharp dryline / surface convergence or upper- level forcing. Also not in good chase terrain east of I-35 in OK.
Jason N
EF5
No question this weekend will mostly be a wash and tricky. Next week, early has some potential, but also chase challenges.
Arrive Saturday morning. position to Wichita, SW passing over the arklatex means I will keep driving south if it looks good, or stop. but odds are right now I wont push south to meet it unless something in the short-term changes things and the CAM's show more than the mesoscale does now.
Sunday: CO/OK pan handle? overall not the best conditions at all.. but might make for some good sunset structure pics!
Monday: 2 choices 1, Red River Cluster which will be a terrain mess if its further east and ("dear god the Hoard"), OR 2, go towards CO/KS border'ish and look for structure and hope for something fun to pan out.
Tuesday: if you stay in the Red River area Monday, find the boundary, and try again (better DL and 85/50 Flow option IMO) but terrain issues just get worse the further east you go. further south of red river IVO Dallas, cap issues? HP was mentioned before and I really dislike HP. AND the hoard again to, although it was brought up that its mid-week, vacation days be gone, hmmmmm.
Wednesday: a wash basically.. action moves over mid south and TN valley that i'm not chasing since that's where I'm coming from lol (keep an eye on it for shifts in the forecast, or reposition north to NE for Thursday and have steak somewhere good)
Thursday: trough moves in over ND/SD, some Isold possibility to catch possible juvenile MCC.. still really far out in the forecast, so any ripple effects in timing or parameters earlier on may change this completely by next Tues.
Arrive Saturday morning. position to Wichita, SW passing over the arklatex means I will keep driving south if it looks good, or stop. but odds are right now I wont push south to meet it unless something in the short-term changes things and the CAM's show more than the mesoscale does now.
Sunday: CO/OK pan handle? overall not the best conditions at all.. but might make for some good sunset structure pics!
Monday: 2 choices 1, Red River Cluster which will be a terrain mess if its further east and ("dear god the Hoard"), OR 2, go towards CO/KS border'ish and look for structure and hope for something fun to pan out.
Tuesday: if you stay in the Red River area Monday, find the boundary, and try again (better DL and 85/50 Flow option IMO) but terrain issues just get worse the further east you go. further south of red river IVO Dallas, cap issues? HP was mentioned before and I really dislike HP. AND the hoard again to, although it was brought up that its mid-week, vacation days be gone, hmmmmm.
Wednesday: a wash basically.. action moves over mid south and TN valley that i'm not chasing since that's where I'm coming from lol (keep an eye on it for shifts in the forecast, or reposition north to NE for Thursday and have steak somewhere good)
Thursday: trough moves in over ND/SD, some Isold possibility to catch possible juvenile MCC.. still really far out in the forecast, so any ripple effects in timing or parameters earlier on may change this completely by next Tues.
ScottCurry
EF3
I was seriously considering leaving tomorrow for a short chase trip to Texas or Oklahoma, returning to Colorado on Sunday. But the more I look at the NAM, the more it looks like it's going to get capped. I'll re-access tomorrow morning once the HRRR forecast comes into focus.
On a side note, I need to get my photos and video from the June 2 Sanderson Tornado up. Looks like people posted the Fort Stockton tornado, but not the Sanderson tornado.
On a side note, I need to get my photos and video from the June 2 Sanderson Tornado up. Looks like people posted the Fort Stockton tornado, but not the Sanderson tornado.
John Farley
Supporter
In response to gdlewen, another consideration for me in addition to the ones James mentions is that, even if the action Saturday is west of the jungles of eastern OK, which it well could be, it will still be pretty close to Oklahoma City and the crowds of chasers and perhaps locals that come with that, particularly on a weekend. I generally avoid chasing within 50-75 miles of OKC, unless it is a really great setup, which this is not. I will readily admit that the older I get the less I like crowds. This influences not only where I chase but also when and where I engage in other activies I enjoy such as skiing and fishing. Dealing with excessive crowds takes a lot of the fun out of any of it for me, but of course with chasing, you also have the issue of safety when it gets too crowded.
I flirted with SE Colorado tomorrow, but decided to pass on it due to lack of low-level directional shear. It being Colorado, there is always a small chance of a landspout, but not enough to get me out for basically one day of chasing given my reluctance about Oklahoma the next day. Prior commitments keep me from chasing Mon-Wed next week, so I guess I will end up waiting to see what happens during the second half of June. No high hopes right now, but given limited forecast reliability that far out, nobody really knows.
I flirted with SE Colorado tomorrow, but decided to pass on it due to lack of low-level directional shear. It being Colorado, there is always a small chance of a landspout, but not enough to get me out for basically one day of chasing given my reluctance about Oklahoma the next day. Prior commitments keep me from chasing Mon-Wed next week, so I guess I will end up waiting to see what happens during the second half of June. No high hopes right now, but given limited forecast reliability that far out, nobody really knows.
gdlewen
EF4
Thanks for all of the responses. I was struck by the superposition of strong moisture convergence and CAPE/shear, coupled with a weak perturbation in the 700-500 mb flow over OK/MO that has persisted (more or less) since last night in the NAM and has since been picked up by the RAP.
if I had to summarize the responses I would say, “It’s not enough.” Not enough to get experienced chasers out, which is very useful feedback.
I am hopeful that things come together though. If not, I have yard work to do….
if I had to summarize the responses I would say, “It’s not enough.” Not enough to get experienced chasers out, which is very useful feedback.
I am hopeful that things come together though. If not, I have yard work to do….
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